Should the Mets Extend Brandon Nimmo?

With Brandon Nimmo having a great (and healthy) season in his potential walk year, it’s time once again to start thinking about whether the Mets should retain him.

Nimmo has long since overcome the “fourth outfielder” narrative that followed him even while he got on base at a high level. The only major issue for him in recent years has been staying on the field, but he’s played in 28 of the Mets’ 33 games this season.

It’s been another strong campaign for the outfielder, arguably better than his 92-game performance last year. He owns the highest wRC+ of his career with a 155 mark. His .290/.413/.440 batting line is comparable to the .292/.401/.437 he posted last season, and he’s done it with a BABIP that’s .033 points lower.

Perhaps most impressively, he’s walked more than he’s struck out. His 16.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, while his current 15.6% strikeout rate would be the lowest of his career. Strikeouts were an issue when he first got to the big leagues, but he’s cut that down a considerable amount while remaining the same caliber of offensive player. In fact, he’s only gotten better.

Nimmo, who was just a bleary-eyed prospect the first time he came up back in 2016, is now 29 years old. He’s in the final year of his contract with the Mets, the organization he’s spent his entire professional career with. Thoughts of an extension with him are nothing new, as the chatter occurred multiple times throughout the offseason. Nimmo has said he would be interested in an extension to stay in the place he calls home, though he said publicly that the Mets hadn’t reached out to him about one.

Thoughts of the Mets extending a left-handed outfielder used to be between Nimmo and Michael Conforto, who’s also 29. Conforto followed a similar trajectory as Nimmo, getting picked by the Mets in the first round and building his way up to Queens, where he found a solid amount of success.

Conforto’s career took a different path this offseason though, when he became a free agent. He remained unsigned even after the lockout ended, and even once MLB games resumed. There were thoughts of him joining the rival Phillies before they signed Nick Castellanos, as well as rumors of him using the Long Island Ducks as a spring training team. Neither came to fruition as his agent Scott Boras announced he was done for the year with an injury.

Conforto’s Mets career also ended on a relatively low note, with one of his weakest offensive seasons. Nimmo, meanwhile, is having his best offensive season, though it is still fairly early. Still, Nimmo’s recent success and the impending doom of his contract expiration have to reheat up the conversation about a potential extension. With Conforto gone and likely not coming back, it makes the Mets’ decision a lot easier in terms of which outfielder they should throw some money at.

Tim Britton of The Athletic wrote an article in February digging in to what a Nimmo extension might look like, comparing him to other players who have put up a similar level of performance in roughly the same age range. Britton found that Nimmo had more WAR than Chris Taylor, who received a four-year, $64 million contract with the Dodgers. Nimmo also had a similar WAR as players like Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa and Cody Bellinger, even with all the time he’s missed.

Castellanos was another player Nimmo was comparable too. Like Taylor, Castellanos got four years and $64 million from the Reds. It would be reasonable to expect Nimmo to receive a similar number, with possibly more years attached.

One of the most interesting comparisons Britton made in his article was Byron Buxton. While Buxton is a different type of player with a lot more speed and less plate discipline than Nimmo, his WAR total over the last five seasons (before 2022) was similar to Nimmo’s. Buxton got a seven-year, $100 million extension with the Twins over the offseason. While Nimmo probably won’t get that much, it’s an interesting comparison to make as one ponders what an extension could look like.

Starling Marte and Mark Canha were the two major outfield additions the Mets made over the offseason, but those guys are both 33 years old and obviously not the kind of players you’re going to build a franchise around at this point in their careers. Nimmo is right in the thick of what should be his aging prime. He’s arguably the best hitter on the team, and a cornerstone in the leadoff spot. It’s time for the Mets to think seriously about keeping him in Queens for the long run.