The New York Mets have certainly not made a lot of noise this offseason when it comes to making moves to stay competitive in an increasingly competitive NL East.
So far, they have traded for Jake Marisnick and signed starters Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler), Washington Nationals (Stephen Strasburg), and Atlanta Braves (Will Smith) have all signed a player that has received a qualifying offer this offseason.
On top of it, Josh Donaldson could very well be staying in the division with both the Braves and Nationals interested in signing him long-term.
That leaves the Mets, who finished in third place in the division at 86-76, potentially playing catch up at this point.
In order to counter that, trading for a star is something they have explored with reports that they have pursued Francisco Lindor recently coming out. However, they balked at the price once Jeff McNeil kept getting pushed to be part of the deal as detailed by Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.
Is there a star player that could make more sense for the Mets in 2020?
Nolan Arenado might be that type of transformational player, who it appears the Colorado Rockies are at least listening to offers for.
Arenado, 28, is entering the second year of an eight-year, $280 million contract with the Rockies that has him set to make $35 million in 2020.
That amount of team control is something that probably would appeal to the Mets, although an opt-out after the 2021 season looms as a potential threat that must be considered in any trade made for Arenado.
In 2019, Arenado hit .315/.379/.583 with 41 home runs and 118 RBI to give himself a 128 wRC+. As is the case with all players who have 81 home games at Coors Field, his splits need to be looked into carefully.
Arenado’s splits this past season would show that there is a disparity, although not one that should necessarily make teams balk. At home in 2019, Arenado had a 1.060 OPS while on the road he had a still very good .866 OPS. For reference, Michael Conforto had a .856 OPS this past season.
Defensively, he’s an elite defender with 117 DRS and a 47.9 UZR over seven MLB seasons at the hot corner. In 2019, he had 8 DRS and a 10.3 UZR.
Overall, Arenado had a 5.9 fWAR this past season and has not had an fWAR lower than 5.0 since the 2015 season when he finished with a 4.5 fWAR.
The asking price in a deal remains to be seen, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post surmises that the Rockies would likely want one of Jeff McNeil or Brandon Nimmo back in a deal plus prospects.
Depending on the team’s view about the likelihood of keeping Arenado past the 2021 season, that price tag could be too high for the Mets especially considering the team’s weak farm system at the moment.
However, with the team expecting billionaire Steve Cohen to be the team’s majority owner in the near future, long-term finances aren’t a major concern.
It actually could be more prohibitive short-term as the Mets are still under the ownership of the Wilpons and even with a significantly reduced salary for Yoenis Cespedes in 2020, the team is only approximately $18 million under the luxury tax threshold as detailed by MetsMerized’s own Christopher Soto.
Unless if the Mets are willing to exceed the luxury tax, they would have to shed about $17 million to fit Arenado’s $35 million salary without crossing the line. The team should be willing to go over it given the minuscule penalties for teams that go over it for the first time, but so far they have not expressed a willingness to do so.
Could they manage to clear $17 million in salary? Absolutely, but it would probably require trading more talented pieces to rid themselves of contracts like that of Jed Lowrie and Jeurys Familia.
While Arenado would be a great fit for the Mets at third base, it might not be worth the sacrificing of so much talent for a player who could very well decide to leave after the 2021 season.
