A good curveball should snap like a Nathan’s hot dog.
There’s nothing more beautiful than watching a curve graciously travel downward as a batter’s bat goes above it. It is simply the hot dog with mustard and sauerkraut of pitches.
Seth Lugo is snapping the ball like never before. At 32 it’s not an increase in velocity that’s making Lugo stand out. He’s back to reclaim his title as the player with the highest average spin rate on his curve. And he’s doing it at a level new to even him.
Lugo is three years removed from his best season. In 2019, Lugo limited opposing batters to a 2.70 ERA and struck out 104 of them in 80 innings pitched. Against his curveball, players batted .214 and swung and missed at it 27.6% of the time.
In the righty reliever’s first eight appearances this season, Lugo has thrown his curveball 47 times or 34.3%. It’s tied with his fastball as the most common pitch thrown by him. Opposing batters are hitting .143 and swinging and missing at his curve 37.5% of the time.
No one in Major League Baseball is able to generate as much spin on a curveball as Lugo.
Lugo is blowing out the competition with an average spin of 3,307 rotations. The nearest dot on the chart belongs to Pittsburgh Pirate Chris Stratton who averages 3,098 rotations. Two hundred fewer than Lugo.
What makes Lugo’s curveball so special is no one in the major leagues is able to match the spin he puts on the ball. Lugo is the only player to record a curveball with a spin rate over 3,300 this year and he’s doing it 19% of the time.
Lugo’s curveball has topped out at over 3,500 rotations this season. That places him in the 100th percentile for curve spin. Lugo has finished in the 100th percentile in that category in 2021, 2019, and 2016. He finished in the 99th percentile in 2020, 2018, and 2017.
The difference for Lugo across his first eight appearances is the commonality of which he’s reaching the upper echelon on spin rates. Going back to the 3300 number, Lugo reached that level on 10.8% of his curves in 2021, 4.1% in 2020, and 10.8% in 2019. He’s throwing it harder more consistently than ever.
Needless to say, it makes batters look silly.
Lugo’s base numbers haven’t been spectacular this season. He currently has a 4.70 ERA. If anything, the spin that Lugo is generating on his curveball shows he’s back to being fully healthy and can reach the heights he did in 2019.
Lugo says he finally feels back to normal after elbow surgery to repair two bone spurs he underwent during spring training in 2021.
He hasn’t reached that 2019 level yet but he looked like it on April 22 against the Diamondbacks. Lugo entered in the 10th inning with the Mets leading 6-5. With the free runner on second base, Lugo buckled down to strike out his first two batters Cooper Hummel and Ketel Marte (each on curveballs). He then walked a batter but earned a pop out from Christian Walker to end the game and save it for the Mets.
During that outing, Lugo’s curveball topped out at 3,523 rotations and averaged 3,411 on eight thrown, an increase of 104 from his season average. In addition, Lugo’s velocity was up on both his curve and four-seamer.
Give Lugo some time and his normal stats will come down. All his under the hood expected numbers check out, including an xERA of 3.07 and xBA of .233. Both are his lowest marks since 2019.
It’s unknown if Lugo will ever go back to being the multi-inning reliever he was before but the early results are promising.
