By Matt Musico
Not having the New York Mets on TV every night isn’t fun, even if the postseason has already proven to be exciting through just two games. However, having season-long stats finalized allows us to look at who performed very well, who didn’t, and how those observations compare to each other.
That’s when Seth Lugo‘s music gets played, you guys.
In just 80 innings, the right-hander set new single-season career-high marks in fWAR (2.2), SIERA (2.78), strikeout rate (33.1%), and walk rate (5.1%). And while it doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of things, his seven wins tied a career-best number despite not toeing the slab for a single start for the first time since he debuted for New York in 2016.
Lugo was easily the Mets’ best reliever in 2018, too, but this past year certainly qualifies as his breakout campaign. Liam Hendriks (3.8 fWAR) and Kirby Yates (3.4) were in another stratosphere with regard to reliever value, but Lugo’s 2.2 fWAR finished in fourth place among qualified relief pitchers, just behind Josh Hader (2.3). That in itself is eye-opening, but it gets even better (or worse?) when looking at how Lugo’s value from the perspective of fWAR compares to the rest of New York’s bullpen.
For the sake of limiting this sample a bit, I decided to only look at Mets relievers who tossed at least 20 innings out of the bullpen in 2019. If Lugo is separated from the rest of the pack (as he should be), that leaves eight other pitchers: Robert Gsellman, Justin Wilson, Edwin Diaz, Luis Avilan, Jeurys Familia, Wilmer Font, Tyler Bashlor, and Drew Gagnon.
The combined fWAR from those eight pitchers? That’d be -1.4. So, no, it wasn’t even a close competition when using Lugo’s 2.2 fWAR. Even if we take out Gagnon’s -1.0 fWAR — which happened because of an 8.37 ERA and 4.18 homers allowed per nine innings in 23.2 innings — this group still can’t get out of the red.
And if we want to look at Lugo’s 2019 performance from a broader perspective, he just produced the fifth-best reliever season in Mets history, including the second-best one this century.
When viewing Lugo’s past two dominant seasons out of the bullpen for New York, it’s interesting to see how his pitch mix has shifted. The biggest change between 2016-17 and 2018 was the huge rise in his curveball usage. That number went from hovering between 16.0% and 18.0% to shooting up to 31.9%. It was still his second-most used pitch this past year, but the usage rate of this offering went down significantly to 23.7%.
This deficit almost went exclusively to his fastball — his usage went from a career-low 48.9% to 56.9% between 2018 and 2019. The value of his fastball on a per-100-pitch basis also went up drastically, according to FanGraphs. Among qualified relievers this year, his 2.79 pitch value was the best in baseball.
None of this was because of a huge increase in value from Lugo’s four-seamer — his wRC+ allowed (32) and strikeout rate (45.1%) are closely aligned with his 2018 numbers. This happened because of a huge jump in production from his sinker. Opposing hitters produced a 12.3% walk rate, 9.9% strikeout rate, and a 136 wRC+ against that offering last year, but those numbers improved to 5.8%, 29.0%, and 34, respectively.
If it wasn’t already crystal clear before, Lugo is incredibly valuable to the Mets’ bullpen, especially as a team that struggled so much with who they anticipated would be the main contributors (Diaz and Familia). Brodie Van Wagenen already needs to do some work on his relief corps this winter, but with Zack Wheeler likely hitting free agency, decisions with regard to the rotation also need to be made. And based on what Lugo has said repeatedly in the past, he probably doesn’t want to be a reliever for much longer.
Of course, if the Mets decide to transition Lugo back to the rotation, it will create even more questions in the bullpen. A lot will depend on how the Hot Stove starts to heat up after the World Series. Having a weapon like him on the roster is a big advantage for a general manager who likes making moves like BVW. If this winter is anything close to what his first offseason at the helm was like, New York will be pursuing options for both the rotation and bullpen, knowing Lugo could contribute in either role.
It’ll just be time for us to buckle up while the front office investigates different avenues to improve the club. Watching Lugo finally get a chance to be a full-time starter would be exciting because of the strides he made in 2019, but if that happens, the Mets better seriously upgrade the bullpen so the chances of having to move the right-hander back to the ‘pen would be very, very low.
