Seth Lugo Should Start In Noah Syndergaard’s Absence

The 2020 MLB season is still on pause and negotiations to resume have not yet been fruitful. While there is a possibility that baseball may not be played in 2020, that does not mean that each team is not preparing and planning on how their regular season rosters will look.

For the New York Mets, those plans should include Seth Lugo in the starting rotation for multiple reasons.

Noah Syndergaard‘s Replacement Has Big Shoes To Fill

The Mets of the mid-to-late 2010s boasted a strong starting rotation season after season. However, that strong rotation is slowly becoming a thing of the past for the Mets. While the Mets’ “dream rotation” of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz rarely ever pitched together healthy in the same season, all five pitchers were key contributors for the Mets at some point in time.

However, Harvey was traded by the Mets in 2018 and Wheeler left via free agency this past offseason, leaving the Mets with three of their “Fab Five.”

That three dwindled to two on March 26, as Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. He will likely be out until the summer of 2021, leaving the Mets with big shoes to fill.

The Mets now have a projected rotation of deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha – a far cry from years past.

DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last couple of years. Both Stroman and Matz are solid, but neither are clear No. 2’s. Porcello and Wacha are both coming off rough seasons and have struggled to stay consistent throughout their career.

With a healthy Syndergaard, the Mets’ rotation was still not guaranteed to be a strong spot. Without a healthy Syndergaard, the rotation faces its toughest challenge in years.

The Mets cannot just replace Syndergaard with anyone. Having Wacha or others like Walker Lockett or Corey Oswalt start would not be the best option. While it is always possible that one of them could have a career year, the Mets’ cannot afford to take the risk with the rest of the rotation weaker than years past.

They may have been able to get away with starting these pitchers in the past, but need to go with their strongest internal option going forward. While Lugo may not emerge as an All-Star caliber starter, he presents himself as an upgrade and realistically could end up being the rotation’s third-best pitcher in 2020.

Lugo Comes With Past and Current Pitching Success

Lugo has clearly made a name for himself recently due to the dominance he has exhibited out of the bullpen, but in 2016 the right-hander helped carry the Mets to the playoffs as a starter.

Towards the end of August 2016, the Mets were fighting for a Wild Card spot, but injuries hurt their starting rotation. Rookies Lugo and Robert Gsellman slotted into the rotation for a combined 15 productive starts. They led the Mets to an 11-4 record in those starts. The Mets then finished the season 87-75 and snagged the first Wild Card spot.

As a starter in 2016, Lugo went 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts in 47 innings. The Mets won seven of the eight games he started. He never gave up more than three runs in any single start and he went at least five innings in all his starts.

One of the biggest knocks against Lugo as a starter is his past performance as one in 2017. In 18 starts that season, Lugo went 7-5 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.383 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts in 98 1/3 innings.

However, going into the 2017 season, Lugo had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. He ended up avoiding Tommy John surgery and instead received platelet-rich plasma injections.

While Lugo said during the 2017 season that his elbow injury was not an issue, his pitching was still likely affected by the injury since the velocity on his fastball, slider, curveball and changeup were all down by at least one mile per hour each. With that said, the 2017 season is not a good reflection of how Lugo would look as a starter in 2020. Even if it was, it would be on par with what one may expect from Wacha in 2020 anyway.

Also, Lugo’s dominant pitching and increase in strikeout rate the last two seasons (albeit almost all out of the bullpen) goes to show he currently has the stuff to get batters out.

The Mets’ Bullpen Can Survive Without Lugo In 2020

The biggest qualm about moving Lugo from the bullpen to the starting rotation recently has been the fact that he is so good as a reliever, that the bullpen will suffer without him.

That was a strong argument the last two seasons, but is not as strong of an argument now. The key reason for this is that the starting rotation has weakened (as previously discussed) and bullpen has been strengthened.

Fangraphs projects the Mets’ 2020 bullpen to be the fifth best in baseball with a 5.2 fWAR. That projection comes with an expectation that Edwin Diaz will rebound in 2020 and lead the bullpen with a 1.8 fWAR. It is also due to the fact that the Mets signed Dellin Betances, although their projection that Betances will compile a 0.6 fWAR is very conservative and due to his recovery from 2019 injuries.

Fangraphs’ high ranking of the Mets’ 2020 bullpen also comes without a huge bounce back season from Jeurys Familia (projected 0.5 fWAR). However, he also has potential to rebound in a big fashion after a career-worst 2019. If he puts up numbers like he did in 2015 and 2016, or even like he did in 2014 or 2018, it would give the Mets’ bullpen a huge boost.

While anything can happen and few Mets fans would want to count on Diaz and Familia rebounding in such a big way, the Mets’ bullpen can also survive without Lugo due to the expected 2020 season rules.

Rosters will likely expand to 30 players with a 20-player taxi squad. This will give the Mets opportunities to mix and match various pitchers in the bullpen in the event that Lugo’s absence from the bullpen does more damage than expected.

Finally, if Lugo is placed in the starting rotation and succeeds, he would put less pressure on the bullpen anyway.

While the Mets’ 2019 bullpen (which was 12th in the National League with 0.7 fWAR) may not have survived without Lugo, the 2020 bullpen can. The addition of Betances, the potential of Diaz rebounding, the potential of Familia rebounding, the expanded rosters and a stronger rotation with Lugo present in it, can all contribute to the bullpen surviving and possibly thriving.

Lugo Wants To Start and The Mets May Need Him To Start Soon Anyway

Although Lugo has accepted his job as a reliever, he has made it known in the past that he wants to be a starter.

“I do want to start, but pitching in relief’s fun,” Lugo said after his final appearance of the 2019 season per Garrett Stepien of SNY. “Getting a save, finishing a game – that’s a lot of fun, too. So that’s kind of the way I’ve approached the last couple of years is, ‘Yeah, starting’s my No. 1 goal. But pitching in relief’s fun, too.’ So as long as I’m on the team, that makes me happy.”

Lugo has been putting his head down and doing what he has been asked despite having a longing to start. His tenacity and determination to start despite immense success as a reliever is a sign of a true competitor. It is a sign that if given the chance, he would not waste it.

More importantly in regards to his desire to start, is his future with the Mets. Lugo is a free agent in 2023 and if he is not a starter at any point with the Mets before then, it is possible he seeks another team where he can be a starter.

While that is not a good enough reason for the Mets to warrant him being a starter if they did not need one, it would certainly kill two birds with one stone based upon the questions they have with their rotation now and the questions they will have in the near future.

The Mets may have another hole in their rotation next year if Stroman is not re-signed. That is “very possible” as Stroman himself noted in a tweet where he responded to a fan asking if this year would be the end to his time as a Met. If he is not a Met in 2021, it would be another blow to the rotation and one especially noticeable until Syndergaard returns later in the season.

This makes now a good time to give Lugo a shot, and it would be beneficial for both sides. The Mets can see if they have a viable starter for the future in case they do not re-sign Stroman (or if he wants to leave). Also, it gives Lugo a shot to fulfill his dream to start and show what he is made of a few years before he gets to free agency.

With the state of the Mets’ starting rotation (as well as the potential of its near future), this is the best time to give Lugo the position he wants and has earned.