After not being able to rely on their bullpen over the last few seasons, the New York Mets went out and acquired multiple relievers over the offseason and it’s safe to say their hard work is certainly paying off through the first two months of the 2021 campaign.
Following the additions of Trevor May and Aaron Loup, the Mets were extremely confident about featuring one of the deepest bullpens in the major leagues. Especially with high-leverage arms like Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Jeurys Familia and Miguel Castro returning to the roster. But unfortunately, that depth took a major hit prior to Opening Day as Lugo underwent elbow surgery back in February.
With one of their most reliable relievers on the injured list to begin the regular season, this team desperately needed the rest of this talented group to pick up the slack and help carry the load out of the gate. Which is exactly what they’ve done up to this point.
Though they haven’t been perfect, there’s a very strong chance this club wouldn’t be leading the NL East right now if not for their bullpen’s spectacular performance.
Overcoming their previous struggles from the last couple of seasons, New York’s bullpen currently owns the highest fWAR rating (2.7), the best FIP (3.15) and FIP- (79), the fourth-best xFIP (3.63), is tied for the sixth-highest strikeout rate (27.0%), tied for the seventh-best ERA (3.56) and also features the ninth-best ERA- (94) among all 30 teams, according to FanGraphs.com.
Thanks to the amount of length the Mets have received from starters like Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and Taijuan Walker this season, the bullpen hasn’t been overworked and has compiled the fewest number of innings in the majors. Since all four of those hurlers are fully healthy right now, they should be able to continue reducing the amount of pressure the club’s relievers face moving forward.
Adding to this positivity, Lugo has since returned from his rehab assignment, where he made four appearances in the minors, and was activated off the 60-day injured list before Monday’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
While the 6′ 4″ high-leverage arm will probably receive a light workload early on, his return will make this team’s bullpen even stronger and should help them continue to excel through the final four months of the schedule.
Photo by Ed Delany, MMO
Looking back on who’s stepped up in a massive way over these first two months, Diaz has seemingly picked up exactly where he left off during the shortened 2020 campaign and has continued to dominate in the closer’s role, as he’s been a perfect 9-for-9 in save opportunities and has already converted three more saves than he did throughout last season.
While the 27-year-old isn’t striking out nearly as many batters, as his strikeout rate has declined from 45.5% in 2020 to 33.8% this season, he’s been throwing significantly more first-pitch strikes and has also reduced the amount of hard-contact allowed as well. As a result, the hard-throwing righty has improved his first-pitch strike rate by 4.4% and his hard-hit rate by 11.3%.
| Year | 1st-Pitch Strike % | Hard-Hit % |
| 2020 | 60.6% | 38.6% |
| 2021 | 65.0% | 27.3% |
In total, Diaz has completed 20 1/3 innings, producing a 3.10 ERA, 83 ERA-, 2.72 xERA, 1.79 FIP, 44 FIP-, 2.97 xFIP, .211 AVG, 8.8% walk rate and a 0.8 fWAR rating, which is tied for the sixth-highest rating among all qualified relievers in the majors.
Along with Diaz’s impressive performance, May, who signed a two-year, $15.5 million contract in the offseason, has also been solid over his first two months with the Mets and is proving to be more effective than he was with the Minnesota Twins in 2020. Even though his strikeout rate has lowered by 8.3%, the 31-year-old has made up for that by improving both his ERA and FIP, inducing more ground balls and reducing the number of walks he’s allowed.
Taking his craft up to another level, the 6′ 5″ hurler has generated a 3.38 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 6.3% walk rate, 38.8% GB rate, 36.7% FB rate and a 16.7% HR/FB rate over his 18 2/3 innings of work this season.
In comparison, the former fourth-round selection recorded a 3.86 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 7.3% walk rate, 25.5% GB rate, 45.1% FB rate and a 21.7% HR/FB rate through 23 1/3 innings with the Twins last season.
At $7.8 million per season, receiving just a 0.2 fWAR rating from May isn’t ideal, obviously, but he should be able to continue building his value as the season progresses if he can maintain this current production.
As for Familia, who struggled mightily throughout last season, he hasn’t experienced any of those same woes this time around and has finally been playing up to his high expectations. Making positive strides in multiple different areas, the veteran hurler has made the biggest improvements with his command and hasn’t been hindered by any concerning amounts of walks or home runs so far.
Unlike previous seasons, the right-hander has found a way to keep balls in the yard this season, as he hasn’t surrendered a home run since Sep. 19, 2020. In addition, the 6′ 3″ reliever has also dramatically reduced his walk rate, lowering it from 15.8% in 2020 to 10.5% in 2021.
Thanks to his improved command, Familia is enjoying one of the best starts of his career and has performed to a 2.16 ERA, 58 ERA-, 2.83 xERA, 2.28 FIP (career-best), 57 FIP-, 3.31 xFIP, 25.0% strikeout rate (an increase of 5.8% from 2020), 57.1% GB rate, 20.4% FB rate and a 0.4 fWAR rating over 16 2/3 innings.
With Lugo back in the mix, the Mets definitely won’t have any shortage of quality options during high-leverage situations, which is an issue they’ve run into in the past far too often. Though dividing up playing time probably won’t be an easy task for manager Luis Rojas, nobody in the history of the sport has ever complained about having too many reliable pitchers in the bullpen and that should apply in this case too.
Considering the 31-year-old posted a 5.15 ERA, 4.74 xERA, 4.45 FIP and a 0.4 fWAR through 36 2/3 innings last season, there’s no question he’ll be aiming to return to his stellar 2019 performance. If that same hurler returns, which saw him produce a 2.70 ERA, 2.45 xERA, 2.70 FIP and a 2.3 fWAR (career-best) over 80.0 innings, the Mets shouldn’t have any issues preserving leads down the stretch.
While this team is still without key position players like Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis, Lugo’s return to the active roster should provide everyone with some light at the end of the tunnel of what’s been a chaotic two-month period to begin the regular season.
