After taking two out of three games from the pre-season division favorite Washington Nationals, the New York Mets head down to South Beach to play three games against the Miami Marlins, who split a four game series with the Colorado Rockies. Despite being in a clear re-build, the Marlins certainly should not be taken lightly as they boast a young, surprisingly good rotation with plenty of future upside. All five of their starters are under the age of 28 and, outside of Jose Urena, possess only one year or less of MLB service time.

April 1st: Steven Matz (L) vs Caleb Smith (L)

This is a match-up that will be MUCH tougher than people think as Caleb Smith has some legitimately front-line rotation strikeout stuff. In sixteen starts last season for the Marlins before he suffered a Grade 3 lat strain, Smith was 5-6 with a 4.19 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. He has a three pitch mix (Fastball, Slider, Change) that all produce Swing and Miss rates above 11% and he’s confident throwing all three against right handed hitters. Against lefties though, he abandons the change-up and favors his slider 33% of the time which held them to a .138 AVG against in 2018.

Three of the Mets regular starting position players faced Smith last season (Rosario, Conforto, and Nimmo) but did so without much success posting a .231 AVG with six strikeouts in a small thirteen plate appearance sample size. The additions of McNeil (.273 AVG, 6.67% Whiff rate vs lefty sliders), Alonso, and Ramos should help balance out a line-up that has struggled in the past against left-handed pitchers.

On the Mets side, Steven Matz will make his season debut in a ballpark that he has generally dominated in. Across four starts in Marlins park, Matz has posted a 3-0 record with a 0.76 ERA, 1.014 WHIP, and a 8.4 K/9. The last time Matz has given up an earned run in Marlins Park was on September 6th, 2015 via a home run off the bat of Jeff Mathis. The Marlins use platoons at a handful of positions so it is unlikely he will get to see Curtis Granderson, JT Riddle, or even the switch hitting Neil Walker (was benched in both games vs Colorado featuring left-handed starters).

April 2nd: Jason Vargas (L) vs Jose Urena (R)

The Mets have seen a lot of Jose Urena in the past as this will be the right-hander’s eleventh start against the Amazin’s in his three years of MLB service time. With a three pitch mix that is similar to Caleb Smith’s in usage, he usually holds the team in check with a 5-5 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.080 WHIP but without missing many bats with a paltry 4.6 K/9 rate in those ten starts.

In his first start of the season, Urena was obliterated by the Colorado Rockies allowing six runs (five earned) on nine hits and one walk in only 4.2 innings of work. There is also some minor health concerns with Urena as he took a line drive off the inside of his left knee in the second inning of that start which caused some swelling and temporarily reduced his velocity by approximately two to three miles per hour.

Once again, only three Mets regulars have significant Batter vs Pitcher data against Urena (Rosario, Conforto, and Nimmo) but this time its all favorable. In 43 plate appearances against him, the Mets trio has a .350 AVG Against with three doubles, two home runs, and only six strikeouts. McNeil (.333 AVG, .583 SLG vs righty sliders) and Cano (.287 AVG, .549 SLG vs righty sliders) should also have an advantage vs Urena.

For the Mets, Jason Vargas will be the starting pitcher making his season debut. While he’s never pitched in Marlins park before, Vargas did win both of his Citi Field starts against the Marlins last season posting allowing only two runs on five hits in 11 IP with fourteen strikeouts against them.

There could potentially be some trouble spots in this Marlins lineup though as both Curtis Granderson and Starlin Castro have excellent career numbers vs Vargas. Across 27 plate appearances between the two of them, they have a .417 AVG against him with five doubles and only one strikeout.

April 3rd: Jacob deGrom (R) vs Trevor Richards (R)

In what seems like an unfair scheduling nightmare, the third game between the teams will actually be an evening game. Afterwards, the Mets will return home to New York overnight and are scheduled to play the Washington Nationals at 1:10pm the next day.

For the Marlins, right hander Trevor Richards will be on the mound making his second start of the season. The Mets faced him twice last year and did reasonably well, scoring six runs (four earned) on thirteen hits and three walks across 11.2 IP, albeit with ten strikeouts.

Richards added a slider to his arsenal this off-season and featured it heavily (21%) along with his change-up (35%) in his last start against the Colorado Rockies holding them to only one run on four hits while striking out four. Having a fourth pitch to go with his fastball and curve-ball is important for Richards as hitters generally feast on his pedestrian 90-92 mph fastball to the tune of a .312 AVG, .524 SLG against the pitch in 2018.

There isn’t a lot of BvP data for current Mets against Richards but both Ramos and Rosario do have home runs against Richards and McNeil also has three hits in five plate appearances against him. Despite that, the players on the Mets do generally struggle with change-up heavy right handed pitchers. Conforto, Ramos, Rosario, and Nimmo all have whiff rates above 15% against the pitch and (minus Nimmo) averages all below .227.

None of this should matter considering the Mets will have Jacob deGrom on the mound for them, right? Well surprisingly, of the teams in the NL East, deGrom’s worst performances usually come against the Marlins.

In seven career starts, deGrom has a 1-2 record with a 3.89 ERA, 1.344 WHIP and a 10.6 K/9 rate. deGrom’s streak of 30 straight starts without allowing more than three runs actually started after a lackluster performance against the Marlins on April 10th. Starlin Castro’s .350 career AVG and Brian Anderson‘s .400 AVG against deGrom could be of particular concern in this one.