Series Preview: Mets Play Phillies for First Time in 2023

After losing two out of three games against the Colorado Rockies, the New York Mets (27-27) are returning to Citi Field to go up against their division rival Philadelphia Phillies (25-28).

Over the weekend, the Mets were unable to secure a series victory against the Rockies, despite their offensive prowess in scoring 22 combined runs among the three games. For the Phillies, they are coming off a series in which they split four games with the National League East powerhouse Atlanta Braves. That being said, the Mets are going to require more favorable outcomes from their starting pitching if they want to establish better positioning in the divisional race this week.

Tuesday, May 30, 2023: LHP Ranger Suárez (0-1, 9.82 ERA) vs. RHP Kodai Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA)

Ranger Suárez will open the series for the Phillies, and he has not been able to find his rhythm to begin the 2023 season. This poor performance could be attributed to his quick return from the elbow injury that sidelined him at the onset of the season. In fact, he went five innings while allowing as many runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his most recent outing. Suárez will be hoping to regain his previous form against a Mets lineup that has been very potent as of late. In his career, Suárez has a 4.01 ERA against the Mets in 24 2/3 innings pitched. Most recently, he tossed seven innings while allowing only one run in an August 2022 start at Citi Field.

The Mets will be turning to Kodai Senga to begin an important series against their division rival. In his most recent outing, he pitched five innings against the Chicago Cubs, and allowed three runs with five walks and six strikeouts. In contrast to his dominant outing against the Tampa Bay Rays a week earlier, Senga struggled with control in his start against the Cubs. This has not been uncommon early in Senga’s career, as he is in the seventh percentile for walk percentage in 2023, according to Baseball Savant. Another interesting trend for Senga this season has been his affinity for pitching at home. While he has a 1.57 ERA at home, he has a 6.12 ERA on the road. Since he will be pitching in familiar confines this week, he may have a greater chance for success.

Wednesday, May 31, 2023: RHP Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.59 ERA) vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 6.75 ERA)

Aaron Nola will be pitching in the second game of this series for the Phillies. He has not been his usual self this season, as reflected in his most recent outing against the Braves that featured six innings and five earned runs. The Mets are very familiar with Nola, as he has pitched 144 2/3 innings against the club among 25 starts. He has a lifetime ERA of 3.30 against the Mets, but he struggled in his August 2022 outing against them when he allowed five earned runs in as many innings. Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is someone to watch out for in this game, as he is 15-for-43 against Nola in his career with five home runs and 11 RBIs.

Carlos Carrasco will be taking the hill for the Mets in Wednesday’s contest. Although he has struggled to begin the season, he is coming off his best performance of the year against the Chicago Cubs. He pitched 6 2/3 innings while allowing only one run with four strikeouts. This performance can be attributed to his increased usage of his curveball, which opponents are batting .143 against this season. If Carrasco can get over his first-inning woes and take advantage of his solid curveball, he can provide the Mets with a chance to win against the Phillies, who he has a 4.02 ERA against in his career.

Thursday, June 1, 2023: RHP Taijuan Walker (4-2, 5.57 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (4-2, 3.54 ERA)

Former Mets’ pitcher Taijuan Walker will be making his return to Citi Field after signing with the Phillies in free agency this past offseason. While he was known for his ability to dominate in the first half of the season with the Mets, he has experienced a rocky start to his 2023 season with his new team. His most recent outing was a slight improvement from the previous starts, as he pitched 6 2/3 innings while allowing three earned runs on 10 hits. It will be interesting to see if Walker can continue to improve against the Mets, to whom he made great contributions on and off the field during his two-year stint.

Max Scherzer will be starting for the Mets on Thursday, and he is coming off an outstanding performance in Colorado. He pitched seven innings while allowing one run with eight strikeouts, and he looked like the pitcher that the Mets hoped he would be when they signed him to a lucrative contract in free agency. Scherzer has a lifetime 2.61 ERA against the Phillies, and the Mets would greatly benefit from a performance that reflects that figure in the final game of the series.