The New York Mets just spent two weeks in the cozy confines of the five boroughs. They played 10 games at Citi Field and two at Yankee Stadium. As befits a team treading around the .500 level, the Mets went 6-6 in the 12 games, only managing a 5-5 mark at home where they had been strong all year.
They took two out of three from both the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies before splitting the two games at Yankee Stadium. Then the Mets returned home to play four games against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Mets (34-37) came into the series 13-3 in their last 16 home games. Unfortunately, when the smoke cleared and the four games had been played, that mark was 14-6 in their last 20 home games as the Cards took three out of four from them. It was a disheartening series as the Mets led in all four games only to lose three of them. Their overall record at home fell to 20-14. They will not play at Citi Field again until June 28 when they face the Atlanta Braves.
And speaking of the Braves (42-30), the Mets will be at SunTrust Park on Monday to begin a three-game series against the first-place Bravos, the start of an 11-game road trip for New York. It will be the Mets longest trip of the year as they also visit Chicago and Philadelphia before returning home.
The Braves are the hottest team in baseball right now having won nine of their last 10 and 12 of their last 15 games. During that 15 game stretch, the Braves have scored 112 runs, an average of 7.5 runs per game. They averaged 8.5 runs per game in a recent sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Atlanta’s recent hot-streak has enabled them to pull ahead of the now second place Philadelphia Phillies and take a 2.5 game lead in the NL East. They are 7.5 games in front of the Mets. The Phillies and the Braves just finished a three-game series at SunTrust with Atlanta taking two out of three.
The final game encapsulates nicely how potent the Braves’ offense can be as they defeated the Phils by two touchdowns, 15-1. Atlanta set season record for runs and hits (19) in the game. Every Brave position player swatted at least one hit and seven players belted multiple hits.
During the first seven games of their current 10 game home stand, the Braves have smashed 19 home runs and have a 1.073 OPS. Center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr , who reached base five times in the rout of the Phils, has been switched from the clean-up spot to leading off with powerful results. Shortstop Dansby Swanson, a former No. 8 hitter, is having a breakout offensive season and is currently batting second in the line-up. Rookie left fielder Austin Riley, the rookie-of-the-month for May, is hitting .281 with an .805 OPS. 2015 American League MVP, Josh Donaldson, who had been slumping for most of the season, has homered in three straight games and has raised his BA to .252.
The Brave who always seems to be hot when the Mets come to town is three-time All-Star Freddie Freeman. The first-baseman has a near .400 OBP, with a .311 BA, 19 HRs and a .994 OPS. His strikeouts are down this season as Freeman continues to be one of the toughest outs in baseball.
Overall, the Atlanta Braves rank second in the NL in team offense having scored 386 runs in 72 games, an average of just below 5.4 runs per game. Their team batting average is .265 and they have a near .800 team OPS. The Braves have a +39 run differential which is fourth in the National League. Freeman leads the team in batting average, home runs, runs scored (53) and RBIs (51).
If the Braves have an Achilles heel it’s with their starting pitching. As mentioned the Braves are 12-3 in their last 15 games, but Atlanta’s starting pitchers have an 4.60 ERA during that span, which has been largely overlooked due to Atlanta’s offensive outburst. Overall, the Braves ranks fifth in the National League in team pitching with a 4.26 ERA. Their BAA is .248. Max Fried and Mike Soroka, both have seven wins on the season to lead the team. Julio Teheran leads Atlanta pitchers with a 1.19 WHIP, 2.92 ERA and in strikeouts with 76.
The Braves are tied for ninth in the NL in team defense. They have committed 45 errors this season. Only the Chicago Cubs, the Washington Nationals and the Mets have more errors than Atlanta. They have a .983 fielding percentage.
The Braves are managed by Brian Snitker who has spent nearly his whole professional career in the Atlanta Braves organization. On May 17, 2016, Snitker was named Braves interim manager replacing Fredi González who was fired. On October 11, 2016, he was named their full-time manager. Snitker was named National League Manager of the Year in 2018 after leading the Braves to a 90-72 record and an NL East title.
Monday, June 17: RHP Zack Wheeler vs RHP Mike Soroka 7:20 PM
2019 Stats: Wheeler 5-4 record, 4.87 ERA (3.76 FIP), 1.286 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9; Soroka 7-1 record, 1.92 ERA (2.90 FIP), .967 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Mike Soroka is coming off a no-decision against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a game the Braves won, 8-7. Soroka gave up five earned runs and ten hits in that game, both career highs. Prior to that, he notched a victory in four of his last five starts, going at least 6.2 innings in the victories.
Soroka is 2-0 against the Mets in his brief career, allowing only one run in 12.1 innings. No current Met has more than one hit off of Soroka.
Zack Wheeler will be looking to bounce back against the Braves after his most recent outing, a loss to the New York Yankees. Wheeler gave up nine runs (five earned) and 10 hits over 4.2 innings.
Prior to the Yankee start, Wheeler has gone at least six innings in 11 straight starts. A long outing would be beneficial for the Mets given the state of their bullpen.
Zack is 6-3 lifetime against the Braves with a 3.19 ERA. Tyler Flowers and Josh Donaldson each have four hits lifetime against Wheeler while Freddie Freeman has six and is hitting a lofty .429 with five RBIs and a homer versus Wheeler lifetime.
Tuesday, June 18: RHP Jacob deGrom vs RHP Julio Teheran 7:20 PM
2019 Stats: DeGrom 3-6 record, 3.38 ERA (3.11 FIP), 1.125 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9; Teheran 5-4 record, 2.92 ERA (4.21 FIP), 1.188 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Julio Teheran earned the win in his last start against the Pirates giving up only one ER on two hits. He has been remarkably consistent of late allowing either zero or one earned run in eight consecutive starts. He has an 0.80 ERA during that span.
His out-pitch is his two-seam fastball which, if controlled, can lead to impressive results. If not, Teheran will issue some walks as is 4.3 BB/9 indicates.
Teheran is 10-7 lifetime against the Mets with a 2.35 ERA. Wilson Ramos is 5-for-17 against Teheran with a homer and four RBI, while Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Todd Frazier and Carlos Gomez each have homered against the Atlanta right-hander.
It’s the same old, same old for Jacob deGrom. His last start against the Cardinals is like a microcosm of the last season and a third for the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Against the Cards, deGrom gave up two runs on six hits and left the game after seven innings with the lead. The Mets were one out away from victory but St. Louis rallied to tie the game in the ninth and win it in the tenth. DeGrom ‘earned’ another no-decision. Four of deGrom’s last five starts have resulted in a no-decision. During that span, he has pitched to an impressive 2.35 ERA.
Jacob is 6-6 lifetime against the Braves. Freeman has faced him 46 times, hitting .261 with two homers and four RBIs. Nick Markakis has 42 plate appearances against Jake, hitting .262 with two four-baggers and four RBIs.
Wednesday, June 19: LHP Steven Matz vs LHP Max Fried 7:20 PM
2019 Stats: Matz 5-4 record, 3.93 ERA (4.46 FIP), 1.3325 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9; Fried 7-3 record, 4.11 ERA (4.15 FIP), 1.220 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
It’s a battle of southpaws to conclude the series. Max Fried takes the hill for the Braves and he has been slumping lately. He hasn’t won a game since May 22 against the Giants, and in his four starts since then, he has a loss and three no-decisions. Fried has allowed 17 earned runs in his last four starts and has pitched to a 7.52 ERA. Opponents have a .418 OBP against him over the last month. The inability for Fried to control his curve ball has been a large part of his recent problems
Fried is 0-1 against the Mets lifetime. In a small sample size, both Juan Lagares and Jeff McNeil are hitting .500 against him.
Steven Matz will make his 14th start of the year on Wednesday. In his last start, he earned a no-decision against the Cardinals allowing three runs on four hits in six innings. Matz certainly has been consistent as in his last five starts, he has pitched exactly six innings. He is 2-1 over these outings with a 3.90 ERA.
Matz has never lost to the Braves posting a 5-0 lifetime record. Freeman has five hits against Matz with two RBIs and Johan Camargo is three for six lifetime against Steven with two RBIs.
Prediction: This series has trouble written all over it. The Braves are the hottest team in baseball and the Mets can’t get enough runs to protect themselves from their suspect bullpen. Atlanta isn’t perfect as some of their pitchers have slumped and they have trouble in the field at times, but that all has been pushed to the back burner due to their awesome recent offense. Add that to the fact that the Mets are 14-23 on the road this year and it is totally justified to predict an Atlanta sweep in this series.
But the Mets are a plucky group, who do play hard and are rarely swept. Let’s hope the Mets get one from the Braves and perhaps have better luck with the Cubs and the Phils, both of whom are having some problems.
