Series Preview: Mets Look to Handle Last-Place Nationals

The Mets won a series! Rejoice!

In all seriousness, New York got back on track against the Seattle Mariners after a stretch of baseball one could only describe as historically awful for the franchise. The pitching was average, but the lineup filled with stars used their muscle to power the team to victory.

Now, New York has to keep it rolling against the Washington Nationals. Can they keep the momentum rolling, or will they fall back into the bad play that caused this downward spiral in the first place?

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: David Peterson (7-5, 3.30 ERA) vs. Jake Irvin (8-7, 5.14 ERA) 

• Like many of the other pitchers on the Mets’ starting rotation, David Peterson has had some struggles as of late. In his past two starts, the usually reliable lefty has given up at least four runs and walked at least two batters. Extend that to his past three starts, and Peterson has given up an increasing amount of runs in each of them. It seems that some regression has hit the lefty in terms of batted ball luck over this stretch of starts, and seeing batters finally start to square up a few of his pitches. However, the command is the bigger issue here for Peterson. The lefty is not throwing the same number of strikes and is falling behind counts very quickly; as a result, pitchers are able to hunt Peterson’s pitches and do damage against him. To get back on track, the lefty must start by throwing strikes consistently. If he is able to do that against the Nationals, Peterson will have a good shot to turn in a quality start. 
• As of the writing of this article, the Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the mound. Very similar to some of the Braves pitchers from last week, Irvin has not been good this season. He has a 5.14 ERA, an abysmal strikeout percentage, a barrel rate close to 50%, and a pitching run value of -18. 

Wednesday: Kodai Senga (7-4, 2.35 ERA) vs.  Brad Lord (3-6, 3.26 ERA)

• Kodai Senga is back on track… maybe! In his latest start against the Braves, the standout starter went 5 2/3 innings, struck out seven batters, only walked one batter, and gave up two runs. Senga generated 15 swings and misses, seemingly finding the feel of his pitches once more. It was a good sight to see Senga have enough confidence to attack batters and the command to execute on his game plan.
• On the opposite end of the spectrum from Irvin, Brad Lord is a very interesting pitcher—in a good way. Holding a 3.26 ERA on the season, Lord backs that number up with one of the best qualified average exit velocities and barrel rates for starting pitchers. He induces plenty of ground balls, doing his best work with his fastball and sinker combination. While parts of this matchup may play into New York’s contact-first approach, Lord could present some issues to New York in game two of the series.

Thursday: Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.78 ERA) vs. MacKenzie Gore (5-12, 4.04 ERA)

• Just as I spoke about Senga in last week’s preview, the Mets need better length, command, and overall production out of Sean Manaea going forward. Despite great flashes of his upper-end ability early in games, the lefty has imploded around the fifth inning, or even earlier, in his last three starts. Manaea loses the zone, loses velocity, and starts to get crushed very quickly as a result. Unfortunately for the Mets, that point keeps arriving earlier and earlier in games. Already dealing with loose bodies in his elbow, it may be a stretch to ask Manaea to be the star for the rotation that he was in 2024.
• After an amazing start to the season, MacKenzie Gore has slowed down considerably for the Washington Nationals. In July, Gore got rocked to the tune of a 6.75 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. This mainly stemmed from severe control issues; Gore only struck out 19 batters compared to the 15 batters he walked. The ace of the Nationals has started to find a bit of a groove again, highlighted by the fact that he has struck out at least seven batters in his last two starts. Yet, he also got demolished for eight runs against the Athletics at the start of August before this two-start stretch. In short, Gore is still deadly when he is throwing strikes. But with command issues and a slightly more hittable arsenal, a patient approach for New York could have huge dividends for them.

The (Other) Main Headline

Let us keep this simple again.

With the Mets bashing the baseball as of late, the starting pitching and bullpen need to provide a solid floor for the lineup. They cannot implode and give up 10 runs again or blow every lead that the likes of Lindor, Soto, Alonso, and Nimmo provide for them. More so than that, though, the pitching needs to find a way to be productive.

Ryan Helsley and Reed Garrett need to find a way to settle into their new roles. Manaea and Peterson must find a way to deliver quality starts, at a minimum. And, from an overall sense, the unit needs to play complementary baseball with the lineup.

Nobody is asking for perfection, and most know that this version of the Mets will not come close to that. But for this team to make the playoffs, they need to play more like the Seattle series and less like the bulk of games from the last two months of baseball. In my opinion, the Mets’ ability to seal victories starts with the pitching, and it is what I will be watching this week.

Prediction

In their series against the Nationals, I see the Mets once again winning two of three games.

Francisco Lindor will have two extra base hits, while Brett Baty will homer once again. Mark Vientos will have three RBIs in this series, while David Peterson will record a quality start.

After this series, I have the Mets at 68-59 heading into a big series with the Atlanta Braves.