Series Preview: Mets Host Marlins in Final 2021 Homestand

The New York Mets (73-82, third place in the National League’s eastern division) will take on manager Don Mattingly‘s Miami Marlins (64-91, fourth place in the National League’s eastern division) for four games in the Mets’ final homestand of the 2021 season.

The Mets have been eliminated from postseason play, and have fallen on hard times in the last two weeks. After their stirring series win against the Yankees that was completed just 16 days ago, the Mets have gone 1-10. They have looked uninspired in the process, playing all-around poor baseball.

The Mets have seven games left to play (they will end the season with three in Atlanta, in games that may factor into the division championship). All eyes are on what should be an active offseason. Decisions have to be made on the front office, the manager and coaches, and players.

The only on-field intrigue left, since the Mets have clinched both third place and a losing record, is whether or not Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom take the mound before the season ends on Sunday. At this point, it seems likely that Syndergaard will do so, likely in a relief role, while there is much more uncertainty about the plan for deGrom.

The Marlins have been a thorn in the Mets’ side this year, having beaten the guys from Flushing in eight of fifteen games played. The Marlins have outscored the Mets in those games 54-50. When the Mets last saw the Marlins, it was a series in Miami in early September. The Mets were alive in both the divisional and wildcard races at the time. Miami took two of three games, and though the Mets won their next series against the Yankees, that series in South Florida set New York on a rapid downward spiral.

The weather should allow the four games to be played without incident (though there is a chance of a passing shower Tuesday afternoon). The final two games on Wednesday and Thursday should have an autumnal feel with cool temperatures in New York.

Let’s take a look at the projected pitching matchups for the series.

Tuesday, September 28 Game One (Seven Innings):  Undecided MIA vs. Undecided NYM 4:10 pm

Tuesday, September 28 Game Two (Seven Innings):  Undecided MIA vs. Undecided NYM 

Neither team has announced starting pitchers for the single-admission doubleheader on Tuesday. For the Mets, it is likely Marcus Stroman (9-12) will start one of the games. Stroman last pitched on Tuesday, September 21, at Boston.

In that game, the right-hander from Long Island went five innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits. He struck out three and walked two, taking the loss in a game the Mets led 2-0 going into Boston’s half of the fourth inning. The Red Sox scored one in fourth and three in the fifth against Stroman, who surrendered two home runs in the game.

Stroman has been the ace of the staff in the absence of deGrom. He has pitched to 3.00 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, striking out 154 hitters in 174.0 innings pitched. As evidenced by his record, Stroman has been the victim of a lack of run support this season. He will be a free agent after 2021, and is one of the big decisions the Mets will need to make.

While the Mets have not named a starter for game two, it’s possible that Trevor Williams will take a turn. He has been the team’s spot starter, and they are in a need once again. Williams came to the Mets in the Javier Baez deal.

The 29 year-old right-hander from San Diego has pitched well in orange and blue, appearing in eight games (three starts), posting a 2.70 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 23.1 innings pitched. He has struck out 18 and walked seven. Williams is arbitration-eligible after this season, and may be a valuable piece next season in a swingman role.

The game can be seen locally on SNY and heard locally on WCBS radio 880 am.

Wednesday, September 29: RHP Elieser Hernandez (1-3) MIA  vs. RHP Taijuan Walker  (7-11) NYM 7:10 pm

Hernandez is pitching to a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP this season. He squared off against deGrom on April 11 at Citi Field, and pitched five innings of one-run baseball on five hits. He did not figure in the decision that day. In the month of September, Hernandez has a 5.12 ERA. The native of Venezuela is in his fourth season, all with Miami, and has a career record of 7-15 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

Walker has clearly hit a wall, and has had a bad second half of the season after qualifying for the All-Star game based on his first half. Walker’s ERA on the season is 4.57. He had a 2.81 ERA in April, a 1.61 ERA in May, and then his ERA started to climb. It hit 3.26 in June, 9.00 in July, 4.15 in August, and 9.87 in September.

Part of this is likely workload. The Louisiana native threw just 13.0 innings in 2018, and 1.0 inning in 2019. That was followed by 53.1 IP in 2020, and he has now tossed 151.2 innings thus far in 2021. This will be Walker’s last start, and the end of his season is coming at a good time for him.

The game can be seen locally on SNY and heard locally on WCBS radio 880 am.

Thursday, September 30: RHP Edward Cabrera (0-3) MIA  vs. RHP Tylor Megill  (3-6) NYM 7:10 pm

Cabrera is in his rookie season. He made his debut on August 25. Since then, he has pitched 23.1 innings, posting a 5.79 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. He faced the Mets on September 7 in Miami, allowing four runs in two and one-third innings in a game the Mets won.

For Megill, the story is similar to one for Walker. Megill seems to have hit a fatigue point, and has been very hittable of late (with the exception of his start against the Yankees on September 10, which was the best of his career). Megill has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in his rookie season.

By month, his ERA was 4.82 in June (two starts), 1.04 in July, 6.44 in August, and 7.20 in September. He was rocked in his last outing in Milwaukee, allowing four runs in four innings pitched with three home runs.

Megill has said repeatedly that he wants to pitch, though shutting him down seems to be more logical. He has thrown more innings this season than he has in any professional campaign, and with his results going in the wrong direction, it might seem that it would be wise to both avoid the risk of injury and allow him to end his year without the possibility of another disastrous outing. However, Megill is set to make the start.

Series Notes

Pete Alonso is sitting on 35 home runs. He would need to get very hot (five in seven games) to reach 40 home runs this season.

Javier Baez has an OPS of .923 as a Met. Alonso is at .853, Brandon Nimmo‘s OPS is .839, and Jonathan Villar is at .743.

After Alonso’s 35 home runs, there is quite a drop-off on the Mets’ roster. Francisco Lindor is tied with Villar for second in home runs with 18, Kevin Pillar has 15, and Michael Conforto has 12.

J.D. Davis is done for the season, having been placed on the 10-day injured list.

Albert Almora, Jr has been designated for assignment.

A very disappointing season is close to complete. The Mets will go from first place for over 100 days to third place and a sub-.500 record. While we don’t like to wish seasons away, the time has come for this one to end so the important offseason work can begin.