Series Preview: Mets Host Braves in Crucial Matchup

After winning eight of nine games, the Mets return home for their biggest series of the season thus far: a five-game set with the Atlanta Braves that may ultimately have significant implications on the pennant race.

While the Mets (66-38) are playing some of their best baseball lately, the Braves (63-42) are gradually creeping closer in the standings. Just days after signing All-Star third baseman Austin Riley to a mega ten-year contract extension, they’ll look to jump into first place in the NL East for the first time all season. On a semi-hot streak themselves as well, Atlanta won four consecutive games before dropping a close game on Wednesday to the Phillies.

This is Atlanta’s second and final regular season trip to New York this year, as both series were extended because of MLB’s slightly-delayed lockout schedule. Most recently, the Mets went to Atlanta and took two of three from the Braves in mid-July. In early May, the clubs split a four-game series at Citi Field.

For an early August series, things could not get more intense than what will likely go down over the next four days in Queens. Aside from these teams battling for the NL East crown, there’s a good chance the division rivals matchup again in the NLDS or NLCS as well.

Thursday, August 4, 2022: RHP Carlos Carrasco (11-4, 3.79 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Wright (13-4, 2.93 ERA) 

Carlos Carrasco had the best month of his Mets career in July, posting a minuscule 0.90 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 30 innings. Over his final three starts of the month, he pitched at least five innings and allowed no runs in each of those outings. Cookie lowered his ERA by over a full run from the end of June to the end of July. His best start all year actually came against the Braves back in May. In the second game of the May 3 doubleheader, Carrasco pitched eight shutout frames, holding the Braves to six hits and two walks.

Kyle Wright had an excellent July, starting five games and throwing quality starts in the last four. Over Wright’s last three starts, he has a 2.75 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings. He also appeared in the series versus New York in May, where he threw seven innings of three run-baseball. However, he did allow nine hits and struck out just three batters, while surrendering a home run as well.

Friday, August 5, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (9-2, 2.79 ERA) vs. RHP Ian Anderson (9-6, 4.99 ERA) 

Taijuan Walker continues his impressive surgent 2022 season and now has a 2.93 ERA in July to his resume as well. All five of Walker’s starts last month were quality starts, with the highlight being a seven inning shutout with seven strikeouts against the Marlins on July 10. While he mostly faced bottom-tier offenses in the month, he fared well against the Yankees, going six innings and allowing three runs – two of those coming off first inning home runs.

Outside of one dreadful start, Ian Anderson had a fantastic month. In five July starts, the third-year pitcher posted a 4.01 ERA, including throwing six innings of shutout baseball, allowing just one hit in his latest start. However, the blemish to his month was allowing eight hits, three walks, and seven runs in just three innings against the Angels. Against the Mets on May 4, Anderson allowed five hits and one run, walking four batters as well, in 5 1/3 innings.

Saturday, August 6, 2022 (GM. 1): RHP Max Scherzer (7-2, 2.13 ERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (10-3, 2.58 ERA) 

Since returning from the injured list on July 5, Max Scherzer has been every bit the ace he was at the beginning of the season. In these six starts spanning July and August, Scherzer has posted a 1.62 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 39 innings. In perhaps his toughest challenge as a Met yet, Scherzer dominated against the Yankees, throwing seven shutout frames while striking out six batters. Of note, his inning-ending strikeout late in the game against Aaron Judge got the Citi Field crowd applauding as loud as it’s ever been for a regular season game.

With a very impressive July, Max Fried has certainly made his name known in the NL Cy Young race. Over six starts last month, Fried posted a 2.13 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 38 innings. He most recently threw seven shutout frames against the Diamondbacks but also allowed two runs in five innings against the Mets earlier in the month. Fried pitched against the Mets the first series these teams matched up this year, going six innings and allowing two runs while striking out six batters on May 2.

Saturday, August 6, 2022 (GM. 2): LHP David Peterson (5-2, 3.54 ERA) vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.75 ERA)

Saturday evening will be David Peterson‘s first start since July 17. Since then, he has been shifted to the bullpen and is only starting this game because of the doubleheader. Since shifting into a relief role, Peterson has struggled a bit. In his relief outing against the Padres, Peterson allowed two hits, a walk, and a run in one inning of work. Then in just 1/3 of an inning against the Yankees, Peterson allowed a game-tying two-run home run in the eighth inning, blowing his first save of the year. Despite his recent struggles in a new role, Peterson was very effective as a starter. In four July starts, Peterson posted a 3.60 ERA, striking out an impressive 34 batters in 20 innings. He allowed just two runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Braves on July 12, striking out nine batters in that contest.

After missing all of June, Jake Odorizzi – who was just traded this week from Houston to Atlanta – has had a very inconsistent return to the mound. On one hand, he threw two starts in July of seven innings and no runs. However, he also had July starts of allowing five runs and six runs, respectively. Coincidently, three of those starts in consecutive order came against the Oakland Athletics, one of the worse lineups in baseball. Saturday will be his first start in a Braves uniform.

Sunday, August 7, 2022: RHP Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. RHP Spencer Strider (6-3, 2.79 ERA) 

Jacob deGrom finally made his season debut on Tuesday, after missing over a year with a shoulder injury. He excelled against the Nationals, who trotted out a minor-league-like lineup. Regardless, Jake still pitched like the Cy Young-winning pitcher he is, allowing three hits and one run in five innings. He also struck out six batters. On a pitch count to ramp up his workload at the big league level, deGrom threw just 59 pitches in that start. He’ll likely throw somewhere in the 75-pitch range in his next start against these Braves. Although there were some concerns over how deGrom would pitch upon returning to the Mets, he showed in his first start he’s essentially as dominant as he’s always been.

Spencer Strider has emerged as one of baseball’s best and most underrated pitchers. Since the start of July, Strider has a 2.43 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings pitched. In his latest start, he notched a season-high 13 strikeouts in the Braves win against the Phillies. Strider started the year in a relief role, but since moving to the starting rotation in late May, he has a 3.02 ERA in 62 2/3 innings. His dominance on the mound is especially through his ability to strikeout batters, as he’s already thrown three games with 11+ strikeouts since July 2.