Series Preview: Mets Set To Host Braves For Five Games

The New York Mets (52-44, first place in the National League’s eastern division) continue their 11-game homestand with five games in four days against manager Brian Snitker‘s Atlanta Braves (48-50, third place in the National League’s eastern division). The series begins with a straight doubleheader on Monday, July 26 beginning at 5:10 pm.

The Mets will enter the series having won two of three games against the Toronto Blue Jays at Citi Field, while in their most recent series, the Braves spilt four games against the Phillies in Philadelphia. The rare five-game series (originally scheduled to be a four-game series) is necessitated by two rainouts when the Braves made their first trip to New York on Memorial Day weekend. One of those games was made up on the Braves’ second visit to Queens in June.

This series will be crucial for Atlanta, who trail the Mets by six games in the loss column. With both National League Wild Card spots in the postseason likely to come from the western division, a bad showing in New York this week could put a sizable crimp in Atlanta’s hopes to play October baseball. The Braves have been active on trade market already, having acquired both outfielder  Joc Pederson and catcher Stephen Vogt. With the trading deadline rapidly approaching on July 30, how the Braves fare in these five games against the Mets may significantly impact their deadline strategy.

New York is expected to be an active buyer at the deadline, having already added pitcher Rich Hill, who tossed five-plus solid innings in his Mets’ debut on Sunday against Toronto. With Hill added to the rotation, Jacob deGrom progressing from forearm tightness that landed him on the injured list, and Carlos Carrasco seemingly close to making his debut after an effective rehab outing in Syracuse on Sunday, the Mets may still seek to add a starting pitcher before Friday’s deadline.

The weather generally looks good for the series, though there is a chance of thundershowers late Wednesday and early Thursday.

Let’s take a look at the projected pitching matchups for the series.

Monday, July 26 (game one): LHP Kyle Muller (1-3) ATL vs RHP Marcus Stroman (7-8) NYM 5:10 pm

Muller, a 23-year-old Texas native, is in his rookie season. He has pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He made his first start on June 16 against the Red Sox in Atlanta. He was 1-1 in June with a 2.70 ERA. So far in July, Muller has made two starts and is 0-2 for the month with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Muller has not gone farther than 5 2/3 innings pitched in any start, so that may be something worth watching.

Stroman had his best start as a Met in his last outing on July 21 in Cincinnati. In that game, the Long Island native gave the Mets exactly what they and their beleaguered bullpen needed, as he went eight innings, allowing just one hit. For the month of July, Stroman has posted a 1-2 record with a 3.13 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. With the five-game series and no off day until August 9, the Mets would strongly benefit from another deep effort by Stroman in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader.

The game can be seen locally on SNY and heard locally on WCBS radio 880 am.

Monday, July 26 game two: RHP Bryse Wilson (2-3) ATL vs. Undecided NYM

Wilson is in his fourth season with the Braves and is pitching to a 5.34 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. He has made six appearances for Atlanta this season, all in a starting capacity. His last start was June 20 against the Cardinals, in which he tossed four innings, allowing five earned runs on eight hits.

Wilson has a career record of 5-4 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.70 ERA.

Unless the Mets swing a trade before the game, they’re likely to use a bullpen game strategy in this game. They designated Jerad Eickhoff for assignment after his start on July 19, and he has elected free agency.

The game can be seen locally on SNY and heard locally on WCBS radio 880 am.

Tuesday, July 27: RHP Charlie Morton ATL (9-3) ATL vs Undecided NYM 7:10 pm

Morton, the New Jersey native who grew up in Connecticut, has faced the Mets three times this season, tossing 19 total innings and allowing just four runs. His faced the Mets in back-to-back starts on June 22 and June 29, recording the win on June 22 in New York and taking a no-decision on June 29 in Atlanta in a game the Mets won.

Morton is having a very good season, his 14th in the major leagues. He has a career record of 102-92, with an ERA of 4.05 and 1.32 WHIP. This year, his ERA is 3.65 and his WHIP is 1.14.

The Mets have not named a starter for this game. It will be interesting to see how they manage back-to-back games for which they have not identified a starting pitcher. A bullpen game may work for one game, but is likely not sustainable over two consecutive games. There doesn’t seem to be viable options at Syracuse, so perhaps a pitcher from outside the organization can be on the way via trade.

The game can be seen locally on SNY and heard locally on WCBS radio 880 am.

Wednesday, July 28: LHP Max Fried (7-6) ATL vs RHP Tylor Megill (1-0) NYM 7:10 pm

Fried has a 4.46 ERA this season and a 1.37 WHIP. He has faced the Mets twice this season, posting a 1-1 record against New York. On May 17 in Atlanta, the Mets beat Fried, though he threw six innings, allowing just one run on five hits. On June 30 in Atlanta, Fried recorded the win after going five innings and allowing two runs in a blowout victory for Atlanta.

The Santa Monica, CA native is 27 years old and in his fifth major league season. He has a career record of 33-17 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.

Megill has been quite a find for the Mets this season. He will turn 26 years old on Wednesday when he takes the mound for this start. Megill has made six starts, posting a 2.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He earned the win in his last start on July 23 against the Blue Jays, tossing six shutout innings and allowing just two hits to a formidable lineup. He also recorded his first career hit in the game. Megill was far more efficient with his pitches on July 23 and probably could have gone another inning. The right-hander has struck out 33 hitters over 30 innings pitched.

The game can be seen locally on WPIX and heard locally on WCBS radio 880 am.

Thursday, July 29: LHP Drew Smyly (7-3) ATL vs RHP Taijuan Walker (7-4) NYM 12:10 pm

Smyly has started 17 games for Atlanta this season, posting an ERA of 4.30 and a 1.34 WHIP. He has not faced the Mets this season. The 32-year-old from Little Rock, Arkansas is in his eighth major league season, having pitched for the Tigers, Rays, and Giants previously. He has a career record of 42-38, along with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 ERA.

Walker has fallen on hard times since being named an All-Star for the first time in his career. He has made two starts since the break, tossing a total of 4 1/3 innings, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits. On July 18 in Pittsburgh, he had a meltdown on a swinging bunt that he swiped foul (the ball was fair), then proceeded to be more interested in arguing the call than completing the play, on which the Bucs scored three runs. The Mets managed to win the game and get him off the hook.

Walker appeared to wince twice during his start on July 24, once while batting and once while reaching for a batted ball. After the game, he said it was a non-issue, though this will be something to watch on Thursday. The Mets need Walker to be more like his first-half self going forward, as he has been a key contributor to the Mets’ strength thus far: their starting pitching.

The game can be seen locally on SNY and heard locally on WCBS radio 880 am.

Miscellaneous:

Marcus Stroman has been effective against left-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .214 average versus a .291 average in 2019.

Freddie Freeman is raging hot, with a .408 average, 7 home runs, 18 RBIs, and a 1.166 OPS in his last 28 games.

Pete Alonso has 22 home runs on the season, and has raised his OPS to .858.

Michael Conforto, after a good series in Cincinnati, has seen his average drop to .204. His OPS stands at .679.

Dominic Smith has a .720 OPS and Jonathan Villar‘s OPS is .728.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is on the injured list and out for the season.

Freeman leads the Braves with a .913 OPS, Austin Riley is next at .857, followed by Ozzie Albies at .813.

The bullpen continues to be the Achilles heel for the Braves, with a 4.53 ERA (21st in MLB).

The Braves’ starters have a 3.98 ERA (12th in MLB), Mets’ starters have a 3.10 ERA (2nd in MLB).

The dog days of August are just about upon us, and the Mets will be put to the test in this five-game series against the Braves, who know they have to perform well to remain afloat in the quest for the division title. After this series, New York will host the Cincinnati Reds for three games to conclude an 11-game homestand of the season (the longest of 2021 for them). After that, the Mets begin August with four games in Miami before heading to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies.