Series Preview: Mets Head To Miami Looking To Close Gap In NL East

Despite winning their Labor Day Weekend series with the Nationals, 3-2, the Mets head to Miami on a rather sour note. Although they won two thrilling extra-inning games, as well as a win in a 13-run outburst, the team dropped the final game of the series after Edwin Diaz blew the save. Entering Tuesday, the Mets are just four games out of first place in the NL East, a significant improvement since they were over eight games out just late last month.

The last time the Mets visited Miami, they lost three out of four games, which was part of a stretch that saw the Mets lose seven of eight games overall. Heading into this series, the Mets are in much better shape, but will likely have to sweep the Marlins to gain any ground in the division, if at all. The NL-East leading Braves take on the Nationals this week, in what could be an easy sweep for Atlanta.

Here’s the good news though- the Mets swept the Marlins in a two-game series (three games if you count the April 11 suspended game win) when the calendar flipped to September. After struggling against bad teams for much of August, the Mets have reversed the script this month to stack up wins against teams that they’re expected to defeat.

Down in Miami, the only thing the Marlins are playing for at this point in the season is draft position. They’ll most likely gain a top ten draft position as the front office looks to continue a rebuild that has been seemingly ongoing since 2004. Miami is currently tied with Washington at 57-80, so for those who care about fourth vs. fifth place races, it’s an exciting time to be a Marlins fan.

Tuesday, September 7, 2021: RHP Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.59 ERA) vs. RHP Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.23 ERA)

Still seeking his first win of the 2021 season, Carlos Carrasco is lined up to face a Marlins team that he pitched well against last week. In 5 1/3 innings, Carrasco allowed hour hits, three runs, a walk, and he struck out five batters. The lone home run he allowed was off the bat of Miguel Rojas, who went deep on the game’s very first pitch. This was the second time Carrasco earned this dubious distinction this season, after his first pitch thrown of the 2021 season went for a home run against the Reds.

After allowing two first inning runs against the Marlins, Carrasco would only allow one run for the remainder of his time on the hill. That run only was charged to Carrasco after Aaron Loup walked in a batter that Carrasco had allowed on base.

The rookie Cabrera is making just his third career start here. Despite the rather high ERA, Cabrera actually threw a quality start in his first appearance, tossing 6 1/3 innings of three-run-baseball on August 25 against the Nationals.

Last week in his second start, Cabrera found that the major leagues can be a tough sport – the Mets lineup accounted for seven hits and three runs in Cabrera’s four innings, handing him the loss. A bright note for Cabrera is that he did not walk any Met betters, compared to walking three Nationals in his first start.

Wednesday, September 8, 2021: RHP Rich Hill (6-6, 3.932 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (8-13, 3.36 ERA)

Rich Hill threw one of his better, if not his best start, against the Nationals on September 3. The veteran righty threw six innings, allowing three hits, no runs, and two walks. The dominant performance put his season ERA under 4.00 for the first time since early August, after a start against the Marlins. Now Hill has an opportunity to face a Marlins lineup again, one that he absolutely shut down in that August outing.

On August 5, Hill went five innings, allowing three hits, a run (not earned), and just one walk. Facing weaker lineups, Hill’s largely shown that he can thrive, so going up against Miami is good news for Hill and the Mets and their fanbase.

You know a pitcher is capable of eating innings when 6 1/3 is considered a “short” start. But such is life for Sandy Alcantara, who before that September 2 start against the Mets, had not lasted under seven innings since August 6.

After a mostly dominant August, Alcantara struggled in Queens, allowing eight hits and four runs, walking no batters, and striking out six. As a reminder, Alcantara posted a 1.29 ERA in 29.0 innings in four starts from August 11 to 28, so he’s no pushover. The Mets had his number last week, but he’s one of baseball’s more underrated arms and can easily bounce back for a gem in this game.

Thursday, September 9, 2021: RHP Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.93 ERA) vs. RHP Jesús Luzardo (5-7, 7.00 ERA)

The Mets starting pitcher of the year added another quality start to his already impressive 2021 resume. While he allowed three runs across five innings in what is not a “quality start” by definition, Stroman pitched well enough to keep the Nationals off the board just enough before the bullpen blew a 9-3 lead. Stroman was not hit specifically hard either, as the three runs he allowed were scored via a bases-loaded-walk and two sacrifice flies.

Aside from his pitching, Stroman made one of the best defensive plays by a pitcher in all of baseball this season. After a botched double play with a shift toward the right side of the infield, Stroman sprinted to third place to place to cover the bag and tag Juan Soto for the out. Words don’t do this play justice. Please go check out the highlight of this Gold-Glove worthy moment if you have not already seen the video.

As for Thursday’s game in Miami, something to note here is that Stroman has only faced the Marlins twice all season, and not since May 21. And that first start was the April 11 suspended game in which Stroman went just a third of an inning before the rain delay, so he’s really only got one look at the Marlins all year.

Since joining the Marlins in early August after being acquired from the Athletics, Luzardo has struggled, to put it lightly. His 7.15 ERA in seven starts as a Marlin has included him allowing five or more earned runs in a start on three occasions.

He was thrown at least six innings just once with The Fish, which was by far his best start with the team. On August 29 versus the Reds, Luzardo allowed just one hit, one walk, and no runs in six magnificent innings. He struck out eight batters as he earned the win, which tied his season-high for K’s in a game. In his last start at home against the Phillies, he went 5 2/3 innings, allowing five hits, three runs, and two walks.

Prediction 

With all three of their pitchers in this series coming off of encouraging starts, the Mets carry their starters’ momentum into a three-game sweep in South Beach. As has been for weeks now, this is a series the Mets must at least win two out of three in, but a sweep is really the only acceptable outcome against a lowly Marlins ballclub.

The Marlins had the Mets number the last time these two teams faced off in Florida, but a lot has changed for the Mets since that early August letdown. The Mets offense has been heating up lately and the team has been collecting win after win. Backed by three solid pitching performances and an offense that continues to collect big hit after big hit, the Mets win every game of this series and carry momentum into the weekend’s anticipated Subway Series in Queens.