Series Preview: Mets Head to D.C. For Three Games

After splitting their series against the Diamondbacks, the New York Mets (24-35) are off to Nationals Park to go against the Washington Nationals (27-31).

Last Friday, the Mets endured a roster shake-up to turn things around. While they squeezed out a 10-to-9 victory on Friday night, they couldn’t win either of the two games that followed on Saturday and Sunday.

Now they will play the Nationals, who are coming off a series loss to the Guardians over the weekend.

After this series, the Mets will have two consecutive days off to prepare for their two-game set in London.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups!

Monday, June 3, 2024: RHP Tylor Megill (0-2, 1.69 ERA) vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore (4-4, 2.91 ERA)

Tylor Megill has been a pleasant surprise to begin the season, most recently coming off a performance with seven innings and nine strikeouts. The question surrounding Megill throughout his career is whether he can remain healthy and perform consistently. With the addition of his new split finger pitch, Megill has excelled in missing bats. He has an overall whiff rate of 30.4 percent and a 63.6 percent whiff rate with that pitch specifically. If he can continue to strike out batters at a high rate, his 9.1 percent walk rate will not present as much of a problem for Megill.

MacKenzie Gore finally looks like the highly-touted prospect the Nationals acquired a few years ago. He is striking batters out at a 29.1 percent rate while generating an average exit velocity of 87 mph. Interestingly, Gore has increased his changeup usage from 2.9 percent in 2023 to 10.7 percent this year, but opposing hitters have a .318 batting average and .636 slugging percentage against it. His fastball and changeup are the pitches to hit, so the Mets should sit back and wait for these offerings while neglecting the curveball and slider.

Tuesday, June 4, 2024: LHP David Peterson (0-0, 3.60 ERA) vs. Trevor Williams (5-0, 2.22 ERA)

David Peterson tossed five innings with three runs allowed and three strikeouts in his lone start this season. Peterson used the same pitch repertoire as last season, but used his sinker predominantly over his four-seam fastball, which he used with slightly less frequency. Peterson will look to generate more whiffs in this start, something he did at a 29.2 percent rate last year.

Former Mets starter Trevor Williams has quietly been one of the most effective pitchers across the entire league this year. He has never been a strikeout pitcher, which remains the case with his successful season. However, he has increased his sweeper usage from 2.8 percent to 20 percent, and the change has paid off for him in the swing-and-miss department. Opponents are batting just .107 against it, and it has a whiff rate of 46 percent, the best among all his pitches. Williams looks to continue an impressive campaign against one of his former teams.

Wednesday, June 5, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (3-2, 3.52 ERA) vs. LHP Patrick Corbin (1-6, 5.83 ERA)

Luis Severino has redefined his game this season, and it has generated favorable results so far. While he formerly profiled as a strikeout pitcher, he now features a 4.4 percent barrel and 50.8 percent ground ball rate. This comes with his increased sinker usage from 2.8 percent last year to 20.1 percent this season. Opponents are batting just .208 against the pitch with an average launch angle of just seven degrees, indicating that the ball stays primarily on the ground. Severino looks to bounce back from a rocky previous start, for which he cited sickness as an obstacle.

Patrick Corbin has maintained his status as one of the least effective starting pitchers across the league. Corbin has introduced a cutter to his repertoire this season, and the results have not been pretty. Opponents have an xSLG (expected slugging percentage) of .524 against it, and the pitch has a whiff rate of 18.3 percent. Corbin has been especially susceptible to hard contact and a lack of strikeouts, with a hard-hit rate of 48.1 percent and a strikeout rate of just 13.8 percent. He takes this unsatisfactory combination into his start against the Mets, who have an overall whiff rate of 24.9 percent, just under the league average.

Players to Watch

Mark Vientos (NYM)

Mark Vientos has made the most of his opportunity, batting .321/.377/.607 with a 183 wRC+ in 61 plate appearances. In addition, he has a 14 percent barrel rate and 46.5 percent hard-hit rate, a combination that has resulted in four home runs and four doubles for the third baseman. Over the weekend against Arizona, Vientos went 6-for-16 with a home run and three RBIs. The Nationals have two left-handed starters pitching this week, and Vientos has crushed southpaws this season, going 12-for-27 with two long balls and four doubles. He should see his name in the lineup for at least two of the three games, and he will likely impact this series.

Lane Thomas (WSH)

Lane Thomas, while ineffective overall, has been hitting the ball better as of late. In his last seven games, Thomas is batting .296/.355/.519 with 143 wRC+,  four stolen bases, a home run, and five RBIs. Thomas’s peripherals are not great on the season, but he does not chase very often, with a chase rate of just 22 percent. The Mets will look to plan their attack accordingly, given his recent hot streak.