Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

For the first time since opening weekend, the Mets (20-10) are heading back to Washington D.C. to face the Nationals (10-20) in a three-game series. Since their last meeting, things have been going swimmingly for the Mets, while the Nationals are sinking. The Mets are unbeaten in series to start the season, with eight series wins and one series split, and are in first place in the NL East. The Nationals have seven series losses, two ties, and one win, and are in last place in the NL East, ten games behind the Mets.

The Mets won their last series against the Phillies in Philadelphia, thanks in part to their incredible comeback win in the top of the ninth during game one. Pete Alonso had a great series, hitting two homers in game three and being part of the comeback in game one. He’s leading the Mets in slugging, he’s second in batting average, and third in on-base percentage, with a slash line of .276/.333/.500. Starling Marte was one of the Mets’ hottest hitters, sparking the ninth inning comeback and getting five hits in the series, including two doubles. (Marte was one of our Players of the Week.)

The starting pitching faltered a bit against the Phillies, as Taijuan Walker was knocked out of game one after giving up seven runs in four innings. Max Scherzer uncharacteristically struggled in game two, giving up three runs on ten hits in six innings of work. However, Chris Bassitt did get the win in game three, giving up one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Mets have also had stand out bullpen performances from Drew Smith and Chasen Shreve, while Edwin Diaz is looking like the closer the Mets traded for in 2019.

The Nationals lost their most recent series against the Angels. They were shut out in game one and lost game three 5-4, but the Nats did score seven runs in game two in their only victory in the series. Josh Bell, Yadiel Hernandez, and Nelson Cruz each hit a home run in the victory, while Maikel Franco drove in three runs. The win was important for the Nats, as it snapped a three-game losing streak. Juan Soto struggled in the series against the Angels, going 2 for 13 with one walk. Soto is having an interesting year so far for the Nationals. He is leading the Nats in home runs with six, but only has eight RBIs this year. He also has a team-leading 24 walks. These numbers highlight the struggle Soto faces as the best player on a rebuilding Nats team.

The Nationals pitching staff has struggled this year. The Mets are facing the back end of the Nationals rotation during this series, who all have an ERA above six. Josiah Gray (3.45 ERA) and Erick Fedde (3.90 ERA) have been better for the Nats, but they aren’t pitching this series. The Nats’ bullpen is without closer Sean Doolittle, as he is currently on the 60-day IL due to a left elbow strain he suffered on April 20. The injury came at an inopportune time for Doolittle, as he was pitching well to start his season, and had given up only one hit in his six outings. Tanner Rainey has taken over the closer duties for the Nats, and he has a 3.12 ERA in 8 2/3 innings of work.

Photo by Chris Simon

Tuesday, May 10, 2022: RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 3.30 ERA) vs. LHP Patrick Corbin (0-5, 7.16 ERA)

Carrasco had his best start as a Met his last time out, tossing eight scoreless innings against the Braves and striking out five. It was a nice bounce back from previous his start against the Cardinals, where he struggled and was out of the game after 3 2/3 innings. Other than that outing against the Cardinals, Carrasco is off to a great start this season, and has been the pitcher the Mets thought they were trading for last season.

Corbin has not been a great signing for the Nationals. His ERA has increased every year since signing with the team despite a solid start in their World Series-winning season in 2019. In his last start against Colorado, Corbin gave up five runs (three of them earned) in eight innings of work. Two starts prior to that, he gave up seven runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Giants. The Mets have typically hit Corbin well, and J.D. Davis has great numbers against Corbin. He is in the lineup for game one.

Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday, May 11, 2022: RHP Tylor Megill (4-1, 2.43 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (1-2. 8.56 ERA)

Megill got his first loss of the season during his last start against the Braves. He pitched 5 1/3 innings and gave up three runs. He started the game out strong and had nine strikeouts on the day. But he struggled in the sixth inning and exited the game with bases loaded. Adam Ottavino came on in relief but was unable to strand the runners. Megill is currently 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA.

Sanchez joined the Nationals team late this season, signing in March and heading to Triple-A prior to his call up on April 23 against the Giants, his former team. Sanchez had an injury plagued last two years as a Giant, undergoing shoulder capsule surgery in 2019 which forced him to miss all of 2020, and experiencing a problem with his right biceps in 2021 that limited him to seven starts and two relief appearances. Sanchez’s three outings this year have been on the shorter side, and he has not made it past the fifth inning in any of them. He’s given up 13 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings pitched.

Francisco Lindor, James McCann, and Eduardo Escobar are the Mets’ players who have faced Sanchez the most, and they all have decent numbers against him, admittedly in small sample sizes.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, May 12, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (0-0, 4.91 ERA) vs. RHP Joan Adon (1-5, 6.99 ERA)

Walker’s third start against the Phillies this year did not go well. He gave up seven runs (six of them earned) in four innings of work. Luckily for him, the Mets staged their shocking comeback in the ninth inning, and he walked away with a no decision. Walker is currently 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA.

Adon gave up three runs in five innings of work during the Nationals shutout loss to the Angels last week. He pitched against the Mets in the third game of the season opening series, giving up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. That game was the first time the Mets ever faced Adon. The Mets’ offense should hopefully be able to get to him again in game three.

Prediction

The Mets and Nationals are two teams that are trending in opposite directions, so the Mets are expected to win this series. The Mets have the pitching advantage in all three games, and the Mets lineup has the potential to score often against the Nationals pitching staff. In a perfect world, the Mets should sweep this series, but two out of three wouldn’t be bad.