Series Preview: Mets Get Break From NL West Leaders, Host Nationals

A lot has changed since the Nationals last visited Citi Field.

The crazy thing is, that series was earlier this month.

Since the Nationals were swept out of Queens on August 12, the Mets went from 1/2 game out of first place in the NL East to now 7 1/2 games behind the division-leading Braves. The cause for this unthinkable drop? A 2-11 run against the Dodgers and Giants that saw the Mets lose seven of those games by just one run. The Mets complete lack of offense and ability to comeback from late deficits has pushed their playoff chances to a season-low. Their latest failure was a 3-2 home loss to the Giants that saw Francisco Lindor record the final out of the game. Such is the story for these 2021 Mets, who by this point, have played essentially two distinct seasons pre-and-post All-Star break.

Traveling down south on I-95 to Washington D.C., the Nationals are playing poorly too, but they’re expected to be one of the league’s worst teams now. The team was major sellers at the trade deadline, dealing away most of their premium talent, aside from young slugger Juan Soto. Although the Nationals sit fourth in the NL East and nowhere near the playoffs, even they have been able to manage somewhat of a winning streak lately. They recently won three games in a row, taking two from the Blue Jays and one from the Brewers.

As bad as the Mets are playing, they enter this series as favorites due to the sheer fact that the Nationals are just an awful baseball team nowadays. The Mets are a tick better, at a mediocre ballclub, but what does that really matter when the Mets still sit over seven games out of the postseason picture?

Here’s how the pitching will matchup for this weekend series.

Friday, August 27: RHP Paolo Espino (3-4, 4.28 ERA) vs. RHP Rich Hill (6-5, 4.13 ERA)

Espino has been used as both a starter and reliever this season, but his numbers have regressed significantly since moving into a starter-only role. In seven starts since July 20, Espono’s ERA is 5.76 in 29 2/3 innings pitched. Of his four August starts, half of them have seen him allow five or more earned runs. Given that he’s a converted reliever, it’s not surprising to see him not pitch deep into games. Espino has not pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in any game this season and it would be shocking to see him go above that in Friday’s game.

Rich Hill holds a 5.06 ERA in six appearances as a Met thus far this season. His best start was pitching five innings of one-run baseball (no earned runs) against the Marlins on August 5. Otherwise, he’s allowed at least two runs in each time he’s taken the hill (no pun intended) wearing the blue & orange. The last time Hill faced these Nationals, he went 3.0 innings, allowing four hits and three walks, which led to three Washington runs. That was in a “relief” role, although he acted as a starter since he entered the game upon the resumption of a suspended game from the day prior.

Saturday, August 28: LHP Sean Nolin (0-2, 9.00 ERA) vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.85 ERA)

Sean Nolin has a really great story. He was recently added to the Nationals active roster and made his first MLB appearance this month since 2015. The LHP had undergone Tommy John Surgery, played in independent baseball, and played overseas since last wearing a big league uniform in a regular season game. Nolin has pitched in two games this season, allowing at least three runs in both contests. His first start of 2021 was also versus the Mets. Nolin allowed four runs on eight hits across 3.0 innings. The Mets went on to win that game, 4-1.

Marcus Stroman continues to be one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers this season. He holds a 3.09 ERA in his last four starts, in which he’s picked up two victories. On August 12 against the Nats, Stroman went 5 1/3 innings, allowing one run on three hits and two walks. He also struck out eight Washington batters in that game. Despite not being helped often by the Mets offense (as evidenced by his losing record), Stroman cannot be overlooked in this rotation. His 2.85 season ERA ranks sixth best among all National League qualifying pitchers.

Sunday, August 29: RHP Erick Fedde (6-8, 4.91 ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (1-3, 4.07 ERA)

Since dropping to a season-low ERA of 3.33 on June 18, Fedde’s ERA has risen by over a full run. Since pitching seven shutout innings against the Mets that day, Fedde’s ERA is a not-too-pretty 6.49. This is in part due to allowing at least five earned runs in three different starts in that span. In his last start against the Mets on August 12, Fedde allowed six hits and two runs in 4.0 innings. Earlier this week against the Marlins, he threw a season-high ten strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings, while allowing just one run.

Tylor Megill is coming off his worst start of the season. After a magical July, Megill’s ERA for August sits at a disappointing 7.03. In 3 2/3 innings against the Giants earlier this week, Megill surrendered four home runs, part of an outing that saw him allow 11 hits and seven runs in defeat. His ERA on July 28 was 2.04. Now, that number has almost exactly doubled (4.07). Megill’s strikeout numbers continue to rise – he’s struck out at least five batters in each of his last four starts – but it’s the run numbers that clearly need to decrease now. Thankfully, Megill is facing a struggling Nationals offense that has never seen Megill in a game before. This seems like a good opportunity for Megill to find some of his July dominance again.

Prediction

Maybe it’s because the Nationals rotation is decimated now, but the Mets seem to have the pitching matchup in all three games of this series. Given that the Nats have nothing to play for and the Mets have ever-so-slight remaining playoff chances, I like the Mets to sweep this series. Yes, the Mets just went 2-11 against the Giants and Dodgers, but the Nationals present a far easier matchup now.

The Mets keep saying they’re excited for these last five weeks of the season, and there’s still been some talk about hope for the playoffs? If the Mets want to actually back up their words, sweeping the Nats out of Citi Field again will be a solid start. This is also a great opportunity for the Mets to gain ground in the NL East standings, since the Braves take on the Giants this weekend.