Series Preview: Mets Finish Off Home Stand Against First-Place Braves

The New York Mets were on the verge of a fifth straight loss, but a two-run bottom of the eighth inning salvaged one game in their three-game series against the Washington Nationals. It won’t get any easier for Pete Alonso and the Mets, as the Atlanta Braves come to town for a four-game set. Will the Mets, who trail the Braves by two games, be able to make up any ground over this weekend?

Friday, April 28, 2023: LHP Max Fried (1-0, 0.60 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (1-3, 7.36 ERA)

Max Fried suffered a left hamstring strain in his first start of the season on Mar. 30 against the Washington Nationals, resulting in the left-hander going on the injured list. The 29-year-old has made two starts since his return, throwing a total of 11 2/3 shutout innings against the San Diego Padres and the Houston Astros. Fried is back to a full workload after throwing a season-high 107 pitches versus the Astros last Sunday. He was dominant in that outing, allowing just one extra base hit and getting Houston to ground into two double plays.

The Braves starter has impressive numbers against the Mets in his career, owning a 7-5 record with a 2.78 ERA in 21 appearances (15 starts) and 97 innings pitched. Fried made five starts against his divisional foe in 2022, going 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings. He may not have a devastating four-seam fastball (averages 94.1 MPH), but his ability to use that as a weapon off of the breaking stuff is what makes him so effective. Fried will look to continue that against the Mets at Citi Field in the series opener.

David Peterson battled through his first start of the season, only allowing one run to score in five innings, despite surrendering eight hits against the Miami Marlins on Mar. 31. The left-hander has struggled since then though, giving up a total of 20 runs over his last four starts. His last outing was a difficult one, as the former Oregon Duck allowed seven runs to score on seven hits in five innings against the San Francisco Giants last Saturday. Peterson’s ERA has been raised from 1.80 to 7.36 in a little less than a month.

With Justin Verlander’s return on the horizon, the 27-year-old desperately needs to prove that he deserves to keep his place in the starting rotation. Luckily for Peterson, he had solid numbers against the Braves last season. He was 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, with three of his four appearances coming as a starter. This may be Peterson’s biggest start of the season, given his recent performances and the opponent he will be facing off against.

Saturday, April 29, 2023: RHP Spencer Strider (3-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (3-1, 3.96 ERA)

Spencer Strider is off to a fantastic start in 2023, showing dominance with each of his two pitches. The four-seam fastball and the slider have produced strikeout after strikeout, overmatching nearly every hitter he has faced through five starts. Strider has thrown 14 shutout innings over his last two outings, including 22 punch outs against the Padres and the Miami Marlins. The right-hander had a no-hit bid broken by Jean Segura in that eighth inning of his last start. Strider is continuing to make a name for himself after a strong rookie campaign last season.

The 24-year-old was great in 2022, but the Mets did have some success against the Braves starter. Strider was 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA  in 12 1/3 innings against New York, allowing six runs to score on six hits. He did not allow a single home run in those three appearances, although six walks really hurt hurt him. The Mets will need to stay patient against Strider, especially considering the type of velocity he has. At the moment, a case can be made that he is the most intriguing young starter in the National League.

Tylor Megill has hit a few bumps in the road as of late, failing to record a win in each of his last two starts. The 27-year-old did not pitch deep into the game last time out, throwing just four innings against the San Francisco Giants last Sunday. Megill allowed four runs to score on six hits, including a home run to Thairo Estrada. The Mets will certainly be looking for more length from him against the Braves on Saturday.

The right-hander will be hoping for a different result against Atlanta, an opponent he struggled against in 2022. Megill was 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two appearances and six innings against the Braves. His only start against them came on May 4 at Citi Field, when he surrendered three runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings. Megill has allowed four home runs over his last three starts, so he will be looking to end that streak this weekend.

Sunday, April 30, 2023: RHP Charlie Morton (3-2, 2.76 ERA) vs. TBD

Charlie Morton is off to a very impressive start in his age-39 season, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA through five starts. The right-hander gives the Braves an experienced veteran in the rotation who takes the ball every fifth day, a perfect compliment to the younger arms around him. Morton had his most impressive start of the season last time out, allowing one run to score on three hits, while striking out nine in seven innings against the Miami Marlins last Monday.

He will be looking for more success against the Mets in 2023, as Morton had some struggles against New York last year. The starter was 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA in four starts and 21 2/3 innings. Walks really hurt Morton in those outings, as he allowed eight hitters to reach via base on balls. The Mets have hitters like Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil, who are known for their great understanding of the strike zone, so the Braves veteran will need to show a good amount of control against them.

The Mets have yet to announce a starter for this game, although this does line up as José Butto‘s spot in the rotation. The 25-year-old is 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA through two starts, but the biggest knock on him is the high amount of walks. Butto has surrendered a staggering 10 walks in just 9 2/3 innings, including six on Tuesday against the Nationals. A lack of control will not fly against the Braves, especially considering how many potent hitters are in the Atlanta lineup.

Monday, May 1, 2023: RHP Bryce Elder (2-0, 2.17 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (2-1, 3.72 ERA)

Bryce Elder was not expected to be a part of the Braves rotation to start the season, but the 23-year-old has certainly capitalized on the opportunity. The right-hander peaks around 90 MPH on his four-seam fastball, so his effectiveness is typically determined by the contact hitters get. Elder has tended to be at his best when he is able to keep the ball on the ground. He has done a solid job of limiting the long ball, surrounding three home runs in 29 innings so far this year.

While he has pitched really well in his young MLB career, his only appearance against the Mets was far from a good. Elder came out of the bullpen on Aug. 6 in Game 1 of the doubleheader, giving up three runs on five hits in 2 1/3 innings. Yes, 14 of his 15 career appearances have come as a starter, so he should get the benefit of the doubt. It will be interesting to see how Elder looks as a starter versus the Mets.

Max Scherzer will return to the mound against the Braves for the first time since he was ejected from the suspected use of a sticky substance against the Los Angels Dodgers back on Apr. 19. The veteran will have a chip on the shoulder, given his reaction towards umpire Phil Cuzzi on the field at Dodgers Stadium. Scherzer struggled to begin the season, although he has eight straight scoreless innings over his last two outings. The Mets will hope that the extra rest will benefit the right-hander as the year continues.

The 38-year-old was effective in his appearances against the Braves last season, pitching to a 3-1 record with a 3.12 ERA in 26 innings. Scherzer was dominant for large stretches in those starts, but the three home runs allowed came in big moments. If he is able to avoid that in his first start of the 2023 campaign against Atlanta, the Mets should be in good shape. With Verlander on the shelf, this is who manager Buck Showalter wants on the mound in the series finale.