Series Preview: Mets Fighting for Playoff Spot vs. Cubs

The end of the regular season is near, and the New York Mets have sure made things interesting!

After holding a playoff position for the majority of the regular season, New York is tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the last NL Wild Card spot. And by virtue of the Reds holding the tie-breaker, the Mets would be out of a playoff spot if the season ended today.

However, the season does not end today!

New York still has a chance to claw their way into the playoffs and avoid massive disappointment to end the 2025 season with six games remaining. Up first in that quest is the Chicago Cubs, one of the best teams in the National League and an organization bound for the postseason. They are set to throw some of their best pitchers against New York as they still need to win a couple of games to lock up the first Wild Card spot and secure home field advantage for their first series.

How does New York stack up against the Cubs? And how will this series unfold?

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: David Peterson (9-6, 3.98 ERA) vs. Cade Horton (11-4, 2.66 ERA)

• To keep their postseason hopes in a good spot, the New York Mets need David Peterson to regain his peak form against the Chicago Cubs. Over the past month, Peterson has been even worse than he was in August—he has a 7.63 ERA over 15 1/3 innings. Peterson has given up 13 earned runs, allowed five walks, and allowed 20 hits. As has been spoken about before, Peterson has lost some of his command and ability to limit hard contact. These struggles exacerbated when he crossed his innings limit from last season (around 120 innings.) Against the Cubs, the Mets need Peterson at his best, which means a lot of command on his pitches and a good feel for the zone. If he can get anywhere close to his first-half performance, New York will be in a solid spot. 
• For Chicago, the potential NL Rookie of the Year will take the hill. Cade Horton, after a slow start in 2025, has turned his season into an 11-4 record with a 2.66 ERA. According to Baseball Savant, Horton has a 16 run value (90th percentile), an impressive walk rate of 7.1%, and a solid whiff rate of 25.6%. Sporting a 1.10 ERA in September, the Mets are going to need to jump on Horton early and attack his pitches in the zone. 

Wednesday: TBD vs. Matthew Boyd (13-8, 3.20 ERA) 

• As of now, the New York Mets do not have a starter listed for the second game of this series. The Mets will likely send Jonah Tong to the hill in this game, although it has not been formally announced. To have success in this game, Tong will have to limit barrels on his pitches while keeping up his strong strikeout rate. He has all of the talent to win this game for the Mets, but he just has to execute at a very high level. 
• In the second game of the series, the Mets will face a very effective left-handed pitcher in the form of Matthew Boyd. Boyd is not striking out batters at a huge clip, keeping the ball on the ground consistently—a little like Peterson when he’s at his best. But with a solid four pitch mix, the lefty has a fantastic 5.9% walk rate, an average exit velocity of 88.5, and a hard-hit rate of 38.2. Essentially, Boyd is finding success by throwing a lot of strikes and limiting hard contact with his location. New York will have to be smart in this game, but they will also need to be aggressive to avoid falling behind and struggling. 

Thursday: TBD vs. Shota Imanaga (9-7, 3.37 ERA)

• As of now, there is no probable starter listed for the New York Mets to wrap up the series. However, New York will likely send Brandon Sproat to the mound. The rookie out of Florida has been mostly effective for the Mets, striking out a good chunk of batters while limiting barrels and keeping the ball on the ground. If he can get a few more whiffs on his pitches and force the Cubs to make weak contact, Sproat should be in line to make another quality start. 
• As of now, the third starter for Chicago in this series is Shota Imanaga. While the overall numbers for the season are solid for the lefty, the month of September has not been kind. Imanaga has a 4.91 ERA, allowing 21 hits and 12 earned runs in his four starts. The lefty does not walk batters (4.6%), but does not miss barrels or keep the ball on the ground when batters make contact. Furthermore, Imanaga does not throw very hard, only averaging 90.8 miles per hour on his fastball. New York, if they hunt their pitches, could do some serious damage in this contest. 

The Main Headline

It is make-or-break time, and the New York Mets need to have one mission: Get the job done.

With only a week remaining in the regular season, the headline is simple: Get to the postseason. And nothing is more important than that. 

New York, despite having what should easily be a postseason roster on paper, has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Between the lineup, starting pitching, and bullpen, they have blown and choked away so many games that they should have won; as a result, New York has a serious chance to miss the postseason as a whole. New York truly has the uncanny ability to lose to any team, and usually in the most excruciating fashion possible. 

As I said last week (and for half of this damn season), the Mets need to be consistent to make the playoffs.  For literally a single week, one of the veteran pitchers needs to find the best version of themselves to supplement the rookie standouts. The bullpen needs to be average for six games. The offense, for six games, needs to play to its payroll. 

There is really not much to be said anymore. The Mets have six games to decide their fate; are they a postseason team, or are they a team that will need to make plenty of changes this offseason? How this stretch unfolds will say a lot about the present of the Mets and how they go about building their future. 

Prediction

In their series against the Cubs, I see the Mets winning two of three, keeping their playoff hopes alive. That must happen.

At the plate, Francisco Lindor will have three extra-base hits, while Juan Soto will have two home runs. I also think that Brett Baty will have three hits in the series. 

After this series, I have the Mets at 82-77 heading into their final stand against the Miami Marlins.