Series Preview: Mets Facing Braves For First Time in 2021

Jeez, what a difference three games can make, right?

Heading into Friday’s series opener at the Trop against the Tampa Bay Rays, the New York Mets were flying high. They had just completed an undefeated homestand (5-0), and at that point, they were riding a seven-game winning streak that saw manager Luis Rojas‘ squad grab a 1.5-game lead in the National League East with an 18-13 record. Then, you know, they went 0-for-Tampa, bringing all the good feelings to a halt and their record to 18-16.

New York is still technically a first-place team heading into Monday’s series opener against the Atlanta Braves, but it’s mostly because the rest of the division is still struggling to find its footing. All five teams are separated by just three games and the Miami Marlins are the only one with a positive run differential at the moment (+5). For reference, the Mets have a -10 run differential and the Braves are currently sitting at -15.

Here are the pitching matchups for the Mets’ first series of the year against Atlanta.

Monday, May 17: LHP Max Fried (1-1, 6.55 ERA) vs. RHP Taijuan Walker (3-1, 2.20 ERA)

The Braves’ rotation is struggling, which is a similar story to what the 2020 campaign was like for this squad. The biggest and most consistent bright spot was Fried, who put together a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 56 innings of work last season, all of which resulted in a 1.5 fWAR. His start to 2021 hasn’t been nearly as fruitful. While the 27-year-old’s 23.1% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate are similar to his breakout campaign, it’s accompanied with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Fried’s Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is much better (4.20), but that’s still nearly two runs above last year’s performance.

A big issue for him has been the long ball. After having opposing hitters produce a 6.4-degree launch angle on average with a 53.0% ground-ball rate, those numbers have currently settled in at 9.6 and 37.9%, respectively. Fried is also allowing 1.64 homers per nine innings, which is a huge increase compared to his 0.32 mark in 2020.

As for Walker, he’s entering this game on the heels of a four-start stretch where he’s completed at least six innings each time out (and has included at least seven innings completed on three of those occasions). He’ll look to continue lowering that sterling 2.20 ERA of his by putting the ball in the zone and letting his defense do the work.

Tuesday, May 18th: RHP Charlie Morton (2-2, 5.08 ERA) vs. TBD

Morton signing in Atlanta was the type of move we’ve seen previously with the Braves. In recent years, they’ve continually brought in a veteran on a one-year deal with hopes they’ll be able to give the roster a big boost. Similar to some of his other rotation-mates, the start of this season hasn’t been a smooth one for the right-hander, but it appears he’s run into some tough luck. His 5.08 ERA is easily the highest number of all the ERA estimators, as Morton also sports a 3.97 xERA, a 3.74 xFIP, and a 3.91 SIERA.

He’ll especially be looking to get back on track after his last couple of outings, where he combined to throw just 5.1 innings, allowing nine runs (just three earned, though) on 11 hits, four walks, and five strikeouts.

For the Mets, a huge pitching focus will be on how Jacob deGrom feels during the bullpen session he’s anticipated to participate in before the game starts, and New York’s plan for who will start still isn’t totally clear. An option could be Thomas Szapucki, which Rojas mentioned before Sunday’s finale in Tampa Bay. It seems like an ideal scenario because Tuesday would be Szapucki’s normal day to throw for Triple-A Syracuse, and he’s already on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move on that front wouldn’t have to be made.

In two games for Syracuse so far this season (one start), the left-hander has thrown nine innings, while allowing five runs (four earned) on 11 hits, four walks, and 10 strikeouts. In 2019, he split time between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A, posting a 2.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 61.2 innings (21 appearances, 18 starts).

Wednesday, May 19th: LHP Drew Smyly (2-2, 5.23 ERA) vs. TBD

Smyly is another one-year deal for a vet the Braves struck over the winter to fill out their rotation. Like the Atlanta hurlers pitching before him this week, he’s struggled when looking at his traditional metrics (5.23 ERA). Unlike his teammates, though, advanced ERA estimators are showing he’s not running into much tough luck, evidenced by his 4.85 SIERA. A big problem for the southpaw has been allowing homers. Like, lots of them.

Among starters with at least 30 innings pitched this season, Smyly’s 2.61 homers allowed per nine innings is second-worst in baseball (Matt Shoemaker is the worst at 2.65). After producing a career-low 35.0% fly-ball rate allowed in 2020, that number is up at 48.9%, which is over and above his career rate of 44.4%. Putting that together with a 38.9% hard-hit rate allowed (and just a 6.5% infield-fly rate) makes for a good recipe for dingers.

As of this writing, the Mets haven’t officially announced a starter for Wednesday’s finale, but this would line up to be David Peterson‘s day to take the bump. He left Friday’s start against the Rays with a sour taste in his mouth, but there were a lot of positives to take from it. He went 7.1 innings, which was the longest of his big-league career, and his 67 Game Score (via FanGraphs) marked this his third-best start since getting called up last season. Here’s to hoping he’s able to build upon his last appearance and find a little more consistency on a start-to-start basis.

Injury Notes for Mets

The Mets are definitely working a bit short-handed as this series gets underway. J.D. Davis is working his way back from a sprained finger, while Brandon Nimmo suffered a setback in his rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse. We’ll all be anxiously waiting for the results of deGrom’s anticipated bullpen on Tuesday, as well.

However, there will also need to be some clarity sooner than that regarding Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil. Both hitters were pulled from the finale in Tampa on Sunday with what the team categorized as “hamstring tightness”. Both were expected to get an MRI, and Tim Healey of Newsday is reporting they’ll both hit the injured list, with Khalil Lee and Johneshwy Fargas taking their respective places on the roster.

The Mets built up a fair amount of depth for their roster during the winter. It’s already been tested quite a bit over the last five weeks, and it looks like it’ll be tested even more in the foreseeable future.

Injury Notes for Braves

Atlanta could probably use some reinforcements for its rotation, but that won’t be happening anytime soon. Mike Soroka and Touki Toussaint are both nursing injuries on the 60-day injured list. Meanwhile, Cristian Pache just hit the 10-day IL with a strained hamstring, and the Mets will miss old friend Travis d’Arnaud, who needed to go under the knife to repair a torn ligament in his thumb.