Series Preview: Mets Face Dodgers Again To Wrap Up West Coast Trip

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: this is the most important series for the Mets all season.

While that’s probably been true of each Met series for the past few weeks, that statement certainly applies for the four-game series between the Mets and Dodgers in Los Angeles as well. This time around, the series shifts to Southern California, where the Dodgers have dominated in 2021. At home, LA has gone 39-20. Meanwhile, the Mets are just 24-37 away from Citi Field.

Despite the Mets inconsistent ability to win on the road, they’re coming off one of their biggest victories as a visitor of the entire season.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Mets entered the ninth inning down 1-0 and on the verge of their sixth consecutive loss. But a J.D. Davis sacrifice fly sparked a rally that eventually led to Kevin Pillar blasting a three-run home run in the 12th inning. The Mets left San Francisco losers in two of three, but that lone victory for the Mets might be the momentum they need to turn the tables on the Dodgers.

Last weekend, the Dodgers flew to Queens and swept the Mets out of their own city. While the first two games of the series played close, with the Dodgers winning by a run per game in extra innings, the Dodgers offense exploded in the series finale. Carlos Carrasco was hit hard as the Dodgers left New York with a 14-4 victory. Will Smith was the storyline of the weekend, as he homered in each game of the series. Max Scherzer, always a good bet to pitch well against the Mets, earned the win in the final game of the series.

Once they were back in Los Angeles, the Dodgers swept another team, making quick work of the Pirates in another three-game set. Overall, the Dodgers have won 10 of their past 11 contests and sit just three games behind the Giants in the NL West standings. Nonetheless, the Dodgers still have complete control of the top NL Wild Card spot, and are basically a lock to make the postseason for the ninth consecutive season.

Thursday, August 19, 2021: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-7, 3.75 ERA) vs. TBD

Taijuan Walker is coming off his best start of the season’s second half. Last Saturday night against these same Dodgers, Walker started the game by tossing 6 1/3 hitless innings. He ran into some trouble in the seventh, but ultimately left the ballgame having allowed just one run on two hits, walking three batters and striking out eight. In three August starts, Walker has a 3.93 ERA with 13 strikeouts, though he’s also allowed eight home runs in 18 1/3 innings pitched. This is a significant improvement over his final three starts in July. Over this rough span, Walker posted a 15.43 ERA, allowing five home runs in just 9 1/3 innings.

Given Walker’s noticeable improvement since the calendar flipped to August, it’s a good sign that he may find the form that made him an All-Star from April through mid-July. If Walker can throw the type of gem he tossed less than a week ago versus this potent Dodgers lineup, the Mets might be in a good position to pull of the upset tonight.

The Dodgers have yet to name a starter for Thursday’s game, but it’s been reported that manager Dave Roberts is planning on using a bullpen game.

Friday, August 20, 2021: RHP Carlos Carrasco (0-1, 10.32 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (12-2, 2.09 ERA)

Although he didn’t make his season debut until late July, it’s easy to say that Carlos Carrasco is already underperforming as a starting pitcher for the Mets.

Through four starts, Carrasco’s ERA has quickly ballooned to 10.32. His latest start was last weekend versus the Dodgers, and LA’s lineup stormed out of the gates. Carrasco allowed six runs, including three home runs, in just two innings of work. He hasn’t pitched over four innings since early August (even then, it was 4 1/3 innings), and the Mets will hope he can go deeper than that into Thursday’s game. The bullpen can use some rest after Wednesday’s 12-inning marathon. Carrasco has yet to throw more than 58 pitches in any of his starts in 2021.

Walker Buehler is in the midst of the best season of his major league career. Since early July, he’s also in of one of the best stretches of his career.

Buehler has started seven games since July 10, posting a 1.17 ERA in that span. He threw no worse than a quality start in each of those starts. In fact, his worst start in this span was a seven-inning, four-hit, two-run, eight-strikeout performance on July 17 in Denver. Meanwhile, one of his best starts of this incredible run was just last week, when Buehler allowed four hits and one run in seven innings against the Mets. He also struck out ten Met batters–one off his season high for K’s in a game.

Saturday, August 21, 2021: LHP Rich Hill (6-4, 4.08 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (10-4, 2.69 ERA)

For a veteran, 41-year old pitcher, Rich Hill has been a quality arm for the Mets. In five appearances (four starts) with New York since joining the team in July, he’s posted a 4.98 ERA. It’s not pretty, but he’s mostly limited damage in games, never allowing more than four runs in an appearance. He’s also only given up two home runs with the Mets. This week in San Francisco, Hill went just 3 2/3 innings, allowing six hits and two runs. With the news that Jacob deGrom may now be shut down for the season, Hill could find himself in the rotation for the remainder of this season.

Since joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Max Scherzer has not slowed down at all. In three starts in the Dodgers uniform, Scherzer has pitched 16 1/3 innings, striking out 23 batters and posting a 2.20 ERA. This is actually not even too far off from his overall season ERA, which sits at 2.69 in 22 starts between the Nationals and Dodgers. In 25 career pitching appearances against the Mets, Scherzer is 13-5 with a 2.71 ERA and 205 strikeouts in just 156.0 innings pitched. The 205 K’s are the most he has thrown against any of MLB’s 3o teams.

Sunday, August 22, 2021: RHP Marcus Stroman (8-12, 2.84 ERA) vs. LHP David Price (4-1, 3.62 ERA)

In the series finale, the pitching matchup brings together two former teammates in Toronto.

Marcus Stroman has been the Mets’ most consistent pitcher all season, and for what it’s worth, has been one their more vocal players in terms of remaining positive even when times have gotten tough. In August, Stroman has posted a 3.91 ERA across four starts, while striking out 26 batters. He’s taken the loss in four of his last five starts, despite never allowing more than four runs in any of those starts. Such is the story of the Mets offense, as they’ve been flat at the plate lately and have largely failed in providing Stroman any significant run support. In his last start versus the Giants, Stroman tossed a season-high nine strikeouts.

Since transitioning back into a full-time starting pitching role in July, David Price has been effective. Since July 9, he’s pitched in eight games, all but one of those being starts. In that span, Price has posted a 3.66 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 32.0 innings pitched. While he may not be the star pitcher that he was in Tampa Bay, Boston or Toronto, Price still remains a dominant lefty arm and he will be vital for the Dodgers out of the bullpen come October. Price has actually only faced the Mets once in his career, all the way back in 2012.

Prediction

With the Dodgers throwing a bullpen game in Thursday’s game, I think the Mets offense steps up as they did late in their win against the Giants and put up a rare huge offensive day at the plate. I’m talking over five runs, which I know is uncommon for these Met hitters. But maybe that Steve Cohen tweet really did spark some life into this lineup. While the Mets may take game one of the series, I still think their offense is no match for Buehler and Scherzer. Dodgers win the middle two games of the series on Friday and Saturday. In the series finale, the Mets will manage to salvage a series split with Marcus Stroman throwing a quality start.

If the Mets can leave LA with a split, they’d be happy. Anything less and the division crown may be too far away to catch up to.