Series Preview: Mets Begin Long Road Trip Against Rays

Funny thing how baseball works at times. One day, a Mets off-day, you watch a game between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays. As any red-blooded, full-throated Mets fanatic will do, he or she will root like heck against the Yankees and hope the the Rays recent mastery over the Yankees continues. And it did, 9-1 was the final.

But the very next night, Friday, May 14 to be exact, our heroes from Flushing will play the same Rays in the same venue to start a three-game series. Whereas the Rays were darlings on Thursday, they are fodder now, as they stand in the way of a potential ten-game winning streak for the suddenly hot New Yorkers.

The Mets begin the first of two nine-game road trips with this visit to St. Petersburg. After the trio with Tampa, the Mets face the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins before returning home. After a seven game homestand, the Mets will embark on their second nine-game trip against the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and Baltimore Orioles. In mid to late June the Mets finally will enjoy some home cooking as their two longest road trips of the season will be behind them and the schedule tilts heavily towards home games.

Before we look at the Rays in-depth, let’s take a 31-game snapshot of the Mets season so far. The first place Mets are 18-13, winners of seven straight, coming off a perfect five-game homestand. They have a game-and-a-half lead over the Philadelphia Phillies by virtue of the Phils loss to the Washington Nationals on Thursday.

The 31 games the Mets have played are the fewest by any team in the majors, with the Nationals next at 33. But things ramp up for the Amazins’ as they only have three days off in June (the 7th, 10th and 24th).

New York is 11-4 at Citi Field, while 7-9 on the road. Their latest win streak vaulted them to a plus four run differential, the first time they’ve been above water in that stat in some time. They are 8-7 versus teams currently over .500.

As for team batting, the Mets are currently hitting .238 as a team, good for 13th in the majors. Pete Alonso leads New York in most of the important offensive stats. His 28 hits, five HRs, 17 RBIs and .372 OBP lead the Mets through just over 19% of the season played to date.

Team pitching is where the Mets shine so far in the young season. Their 2.89 ERA is second in the majors trailing only the Padres. The Mets and Padres are the only two teams in the MLB with a sub 3.00 ERA in the early going. Jacob deGrom leads the team in ERA (0.68), strikeouts (65) and is tied with Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker for wins with three. Both Stroman and Walker have terrific stats themselves with Stroman pitching to a 2.01 ERA, while Walker a 2.20. Edwin Diaz has five saves while Trevor May has two holds.

Defense is where the Mets don’t shine. Although recent improvement by right-fielder Michael Conforto (who has made several Gold Glove-like catches in the outfield lately) and Francisco Lindor anchoring the infield with some flashy play, the Mets still are next to last in baseball in team defense. They currently have a .978 fielding percentage. If the Amazins’ can improve just say .007 and can get to around .985, they would be right in the middle of the league. So their poor stats here are more reflective of early season play than play of late.

The defending AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays have started their 24th year of existence with a  20-19 slate coming off a 9-1 win over the Yankees on Thursday. Tampa did drop two out of three to the Yanks in their three game set. The Rays are in fourth place in the AL East, three games behind the Boston Red Sox. They have gotten off to a sluggish start largely due to poor situational hitting and overall team batting. Their defense continues to sparkle as it did last year while the pitching has been spotty through the first fifth of the season.

The Rays team batting average to date is a paltry .217, good for 26th in the majors. Third baseman Joey Wendle leads the team with a .270 BA. DH Austin Meadows has eight homers and 21 RBIs to pace Tampa Bay in those categories while exciting left-fielder Randy Arozarena leads the Rays in hits with 34.

In team pitching, the AL champs are currently a respectable tenth in MLB with a 3.68 ERA. Tyler Glasnow leads the team in wins with four, strikeouts with 75 and is pitching to a team-leading 2.37 ERA. The 75 strikeouts are third in the majors behind Shane Bieber (85) and Gerrit Cole (78). Closer Diego Castillo has seven saves and set-up man Ryan Thompson has six holds.

The Rays can certainly field their positions as they rank third in the majors in team defense with a nice .989 fielding percentage. Only the San Francisco Giants and the Houston Astros have fared better so far. Tamps has only committed 14 errors in 39 games played.

Tampa Bay is managed by 43-year old Kevin Cash. After playing mostly catcher for five major league teams, Cash went on to coach the Cleveland Indians in 2013-2014. As a player, Cash was not known for his bat as his .185 lifetime BA would suggest. But he did have an excellent and dependable glove, finishing his career with a .993 fielding percentage.

 

On December 5, 2014 Cash succeeded Joe Maddon and become the youngest manager in baseball at age 37. He is the fifth manager in Tampa Bay history. Now in his seventh season as Rays’ skipper, he is best known for leading the Rays to the 2020 World Series which they lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in six games. Cash was awarded the 2020 AL Manager of the Year.

Friday,  May 14, 2021: LHP David Peterson (1-3, 5.54 ERA) vs LHP Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.37 ERA)  7:10 PM

The Mets will have to show some discipline at the plate on Friday, facing one of the league leaders in strikeouts. Glasnow has whiffed 39.5% of the batters he faced, but he is not invincible. He has given up 11 ERs in his last 4 games along with six homers. He has also walked an increasing number of batters as the season has gone on, giving free passes to eight in his last two starts. Five of Glasnow’s eight starts in 2021 have been quality starts so as mentioned, the Mets will have to show restraint in facing Mr. Glasnow

David Peterson will have to improve to have success in this spot. Although the Rays are a light hitting team, they did put up a nine spot against the Yanks on Thursday and can string together hits on occasion. He also struggled in his last start against another weaker team in the Arizona Diamondbacks one week ago. In that start he never seemed comfortable and in command, lasting only 1.2 innings. Peterson walked in two runs and allowed another to score on a HBP. He was removed quickly by Rojas, making it the shortest outing of his career.

Saturday, May 15, 2021: LHP Joey Luchessi (1-2, 7.71 ERA) vs Shane McClanahan (0-0, 3.75 ERA)  1:10 PM

27-year old Joey Luchessi makes his fourth ‘start’ of the year (most likely, it isn’t official on MLB.com yet), in what will amount as an Opener. In his last outing, he pitched innings three through six against the Diamondbacks and did not allow a run, lowering his ERA nearly three runs per game. He has thrown between 55 and 63 pitchers in his last four starts, and the Mets probably be happy with that output in this spot. He is not facing a world-beater in McClanahan and if he can keep the Rays off the board, the Mets should fare well.

Shane McClanahan, a 24-year-old rookie, gets the ball for the Rays. He’ll be making his fourth lifetime start and Kevin Cash has been very mindful of his pitch count, raising it some each start. He threw 80 pitches in his last start Sunday against Oakland. He does have good stuff, striking out 15 while walking only four in 12 innings of work. Cash would be very happy to see McClanahan get  90+ pitches on Saturday.

 

Sunday, May 16, 2021: RHP Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.01 ERA) vs Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.20 ERA)  1:10 PM

Marcus Stroman, 30,  mixes energy, talent, charisma and more in each of his starts. You can add the word success to that list as well as his 2.01 ERA is sixth best in the National League. The problem is he has not pitched deep into games, averaging about six innings per start. His last win was five starts ago on April 18th against the Colorado Rockies. The light hitting Rays could be just what the doctor ordered to get Stroman back in the win column.

Tall, lanky Ryan Yarbrough likely will start on Sunday. In his eight previous appearances, he has started four games and pitched in middle relief in the other four. His ERA has been steadily dropping over his last few outings and he pitched an effective 3.1 innings of shutout ball against the Yankees on Wednesday. It’ll be interesting to see how much Cash decides to use Yarbrough in this spot.

Prediction

If you look at the pitching match-ups in this series, the obvious key will be game one, when Tampa’s best goes up against ostensibly the Mets fifth starter. If the Mets grab game one, then a sweep is probable and then say hello to a 10-game winning streak. The Rays are only 8-12 at home this year and with the plethora of Mets fans (especially Pete Alonso fans) in attendance, the home field ‘advantage’ can be largely nullified.

Still the Rays have talent. They copped a game from the surging Yankees and I think they’ll get one here too. The Mets take two out of three from the Rays before they have a nice early season showdown against the Atlanta Braves.