With two easy home wins under their belts against the Marlins, a well rested Mets (19-20) team hits the road again for the next six days opening the road trip with a three game series against the Washington Nationals. This is also the start of a long stretch of games with twenty games in twenty days, including a West Coast trip, with no scheduled off-days.
On April 23, the Nationals were in 3rd place in the NL East with an 11-11 record being only 1.5 games behind first place. Since then though, the team has been in absolute free-fall having lost thirteen of the last eighteen games falling to 16-24 on the season and 7.5 games behind first. The team’s offense has been non-existent during the team’s poor run of form.
Over those last eighteen games, the team has a .207 AVG/.598 OPS scoring only 3.1 runs per game while striking out in 27% of their plate appearances. In fairness, injuries have wrecked havoc on the team’s offense as they continue to play on without superstar shortstop Trea Turner. During this bad stretch, the team was also without star third baseman Anthony Rendon for eleven games, outfielder Juan Soto for ten games, and both first baseman Ryan Zimmerman (16 games) and Matt Adams (8 games) as well.
While Rendon and Soto are now both healthy, infielder Howie Kendrick and outfielder Victor Robles are both dealing with minor injuries themselves.
While the offense has been struggling the Nationals starting pitching has been mostly okay, though, it has been quite inconsistent during this eighteen game stretch. Scherzer (2.67 ERA) and Strasburg (3.08 ERA) have both been their usual selves registering quality starts in seven of the eight games they have started but Anibal Sanchez (5.68 ERA) and Jeremy Hellickson (7.30 ERA) have been getting smacked around lately failing to register a quality start in any of the seven games they have started. Patrick Corbin (4.50 ERA) has also struggled a bit lately although he seems to have righted the ship with a strong seven inning shutout performance against the Dodgers his last time out.
The bigger concern has been, and continues to be, the ineffectiveness of the team’s bullpen. They have blown seven of their possible thirteen save opportunities this season and rank as the league’s worst unit in ERA (6.34), AVG Against (.279), and 25th in K:BB ratio (1.93 K’s per 1 BB). Amazingly, during this eighteen game stretch, they have actually been WORSE than that with a 6.75 ERA, .291 AVG, and a 1.45 K:BB ratio during the stretch.
May 14: Noah Syndergaard (R) vs Jeremy Hellickson (R)
Repertoire: Sinker (42%) [89-92 mph], Change-up (26%) [80-85 mph], Cutter (19%) [86-89 mph], Curve-ball (13%) [74-79 mph]
2019 Stats: 2-1 record, 5.52 ERA (5.62 FIP), 1.613 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, Hard Hit% (34.6%), Avg Exit Velocity (86.1 mph)
Hellickson has taken a step back in 2019 as the velocity and command of his pitches have fallen compared to past seasons. While hitters have always been able to tee off against his sinking fastball, this season its been the cutter (.308 AVG Against) and the curve-ball (.364 AVG against) that has gotten him into trouble as both are ~ 100 points higher than last season. He’s had an especially hard time against left handed batters this season allowing a .368 AVG/1.156 OPS against them this season compared to a .222 AVG/.633 OPS vs right handed bats.
Hellickson has always struggled against the New York Mets in the past with a 6.71 ERA in 10 career starts. While most of that damage was courtesy of the 2016 team, this year’s squad has some strong Batter vs Pitcher data against him as well with a combined .250 AVG/.801 OPS in 95 plate appearances. The left handed bats of Robinson Cano (.294 AVG/1.193 OPS, 2 HRs) and Michael Conforto (.222 AVG/.906 OPS) both have multiple extra base hits against Hellickson in their careers to go along with four walks each. While he has never faced Hellickson, I would also expect Jeff McNeil to have a strong match-up here as he has destroyed right handed change-ups (.365 AVG/.596 SLG) in his career.
May 15: Wilmer Font (R) vs Patrick Corbin (L)
Repertoire: Slider (36%) [81-85 mph], Sinker (32%) [91-94 mph], Four-Seam Fastball (24%) [92-94 mph], Change-up (4%) [83-87 mph], Curve-ball (4%) [68-76 mph]
2019 Stats: 3-1 record, 3.20 ERA (3.48 FIP), 1.105 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, Hard Hit% (48.5%), Avg Exit Velocity (91.3 mph)
This may seem like the worst match-up among the three games for the Mets, however, they have absolutely OWNED Corbin in his career. In 10 career starts against the Mets, Corbin has a 1-4 record with a 4.70 ERA, 1.307 WHIP and 12! Home Runs allowed. His performance against this current group of players has been no different having allowed a .277 AVG/.952 OPS across a large 130 plate appearances sample size including 10 of those home runs.
As tough as Corbin has been against lefties in his career (.230 AVG/.656 OPS), he cannot seem to get Michael Conforto out as he is 6-for-14 with a double, 4 HR, and 9 RBI against him. Todd Frazier, J.D. Davis (x2), Juan Lagares, Amed Rosario, and Robinson Cano also home runs against Corbin in their careers as well. Even Keon Broxton (6-for-10, double, triple, 3 SB, 3 walks) has had success against Corbin in his career.
May 16: Zack Wheeler (R) vs Anibal Sanchez (R)
Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (29%) [90-94 mph], Cutter (27%) [88-91 mph], Change-up (26%) [82-88 mph], Sinker (8%) [90-93 mph], Curve-ball (6%) [78-80 mph], Slider (4%) [82-87 mph]
2019 Stats: 0-6 record, 5.27 ERA (4.86 FIP), 1.683 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, Hard Hit% (28.8%), Avg Exit Velocity (85.8 mph)
Everything stated above about Hellickson can essentially be applied here for Sanchez as well. While he can still rear back and throw one by you, at 35 years old, Sanchez is seeing the average velocity on his pitches decline. He’s also had some major troubles with his control as well walking almost twice as many hitters per nine innings compared to last season.
Left0handed batters have especially given him trouble this season as they have a .300 AVG/1.045 OPS against him compared to a .240 AVG/.669 OPS against right handed hitters. Those higher walk numbers have also resulted in an inability to pitch deep into games as he’s only finished the sixth inning once this season exposing the aforementioned worst bullpen in the MLB even more.
That all said, Sanchez has had some success against this current group of Mets holding them to a .197 AVG/.582 OPS across an 89 plate appearance sample size. He hasn’t allowed more than one extra hit to any player and only Michael Conforto (boy is he set up for a big series) has hit a home run against Sanchez.
