Series Preview: Bring On The Brewers

The Mets (40-22) are finally returning home to Citi Field after an extended west coast road trip, where they went 5-5 against the Dodgers, Padres, and Angels. Now the Mets are starting a seven-game home stand, beginning with a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (34-28).

It was a strange trip to California for the Mets. Things stated off badly when Francisco Lindor fractured the tip of his finger in his hotel door and the Mets lost their first two games against the Dodgers. New York rallied for a 2-2 series split with the Dodgers and then headed to San Diego to face the Padres. The first game against the Padres went brilliantly, and the Mets won 11-5. But in game two they lost Pete Alonso and Starling Marte to injuries, and the Mets then lost games two and three of that series in lopsided fashion. Things got better in Anaheim, when New York won two of three games in their series against the Angels to end the road trip on a positive note.

Alonso has been one of the Mets hottest hitters this season, and that continued during the last road trip, even with his hand injury. He hit five home runs and drove in ten runs in nine games. J.D. Davis has started to heat up now that he has mostly taken over the DH role. He went ten for 33 on the road trip and hit his second home run of the season in the final game against the Angels. Closer Edwin Diaz did not get to pitch much in California, but in the three games in which he did appear, he was lights out. His best game was his last one, in the series finale against the Angels. He completed a five out save, striking out five of the six batters he faced, including Mike Trout. Interestingly, he is the first Mets’ pitcher to strikeout five in a five out save.

The Mets’ pitchers other than Diaz went through a bit of a rough patch in the last ten games out west. They gave up 16 runs in the four games against the Dodgers, 25 runs in the three games against the Padres, and 15 runs in the three games against the Angels.

On the Brewers’ side, things have been rough so far in June. They’ve won two of their last 11 games and sandwiched between those wins was an eight-game losing streak. This June swoon saw the Brewers fall out of first place in the NL Central, and they are now one game behind the Cardinals.

Some of the Brewers’ recent struggles can be explained by a weak offense. Former NL MVP Christian Yelich should be an offensive force for the Brewers, but he’s struggling at the plate again like he was last season. Catcher Omar Narvaez is the team leader in OPS+ at 123, and several of the Brewers’ starters have an OPS+ that is league average or lower. The Mets offense, for comparison, has much better numbers: Alonso leads the team with an OPS+ of 161, and no starters other than catchers Tomás Nido and Patrick Mazeika have an OPS+ lower than 100.

Milwaukee’s recent losing streak can also be explained by a faltering pitching staff. The Brewers’ gave up a little over seven runs per game on average during their losing streak, giving up 57 runs total over that eight-game span. The team also saw star closer Josh Hader blow his first save of the season, giving up two solo homers in a 3-2 loss to the Phillies.

Tuesday, June 14, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (4-4, 4.35 ERA) vs. RHP Adrian Houser (3-6, 3.92 ERA)

Bassitt had a rough west coast trip. He gave up four runs in six innings of work against the Dodgers to start off the road trip. Things went worse for him in San Diego when he gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings of work against the Padres. Hopefully Bassitt can bounce back against the Brewers and give the Mets a chance to win his start.

Houser has never started a game against the Mets, though he has pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings in relief against them. Those innings were logged in 2018 and 2019, so he was facing a completely different Mets team. In his last outing against the Phillies, Houser gave up five runs in six innings. The 2022 Mets offense should hopefully be able to score some runs against Houser.

Wednesday, June 15, 2022: LHP David Peterson (3-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (3-4, 2.48 ERA)

Peterson has struggled to go deep in his last three starts. He went 4 2/3 innings and gave up four runs against the Nationals, followed by a four-run, 3 2/3-inning outing in Los Angeles. In his most recent start, Peterson gave up one run in 2 2/3 innings against the Padres. The Mets have won Peterson’s last three starts, but that’s not a trend that’s likely to continue if he can’t give the team more innings each outing.

Burnes is the undisputed ace of the Brewers’ rotation. He won the NL Cy Young Award last season, when he led the league in a multitude of categories, including ERA (2.43) and strikeout rate (35.6%). He set records that season, including striking out 58 batters before issuing a walk to start the season. While Burnes has been excellent for most of this season, his last couple of outings have been on the shorter side. In his last start against the Phillies, he gave up three runs in only 4 1/3 innings. Hopefully they Mets hitters can knock Burnes out early on Wednesday.

Thursday, June 16, 2022: RHP Tylor Megill (4-2, 4.50 ERA) vs. LHP Aaron Ashby (1-5, 3.91 ERA)

Megill’s return to the Mets rotation after almost a month on the injured list went about as expected. It was a short outing against the Angels, only 3 1/3 innings, but he was on a pitch limit. The only blemish on his start was the two-run homer he gave up in the second inning. If Megill can keep the ball in the park, and keep his pitch count low in the early innings, he should have a much better outing against the Brewers than he did against the Angels.

Like Houser, Ashby has only ever faced the Mets as a relief pitcher. He tossed one scoreless inning against the Mets in 2021. This year, Ashby has been both a starter and a reliever, appearing in 13 games and starting seven of them. In his last outing against the Nationals, Ashby went 4 2/3 innings and gave up six runs. With any luck, he’ll have a similar outing against the Mets on Thursday.

Prediction

It would be nice to see the Mets take advantage of a struggling Brewers team this series by winning at least two of the three games. The Mets will have their work cut out for them, since the Brewers are still a good team despite their June record. But if all goes well, a series win should be more than possible.