Series Preview: Blue Jays Visit Mets For First Time Since 2018

On Friday, the Mets begin their longest homestand of the season by welcoming the Toronto Blue Jays to Citi Field for a three-game set. The Blue Jays (48-44) have yet to play north of the border this season, having split their home games between their spring training facility in Florida and their Triple-A park in Buffalo.

Next week, the Jays will return to Toronto for the first time since 2019. But before they head back to Canada, they’ll make a stop in Queens to play a Mets team that just wrapped up a road trip in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Mets have opened up the second half of the season going 3-3. After two of the craziest back-to-back games in franchise history at PNC Park, the Mets went into Cincinnati and the bats remained hot.

Since returning to play following the All-Star Game, the Mets have scored 40 runs in six games. This included a 15-run performance on Monday night in Cincinnati. The Mets went back and forth with the Reds until finally pulling away in the 11th inning.

Before heading to the Queen City, the Mets blew a six-run lead in Pittsburgh on Saturday evening, after leading 6-0 in the eighth inning. But the following afternoon, the script was reversed. After allowing six runs to Pittsburgh in the first inning, the Mets stormed all the way back to take the game 7-6, capped off by a Michael Conforto home run in the ninth inning.

The Blue Jays remain five games back in the Wild Card race and eight and half behind division leader Boston. They’re hovering just above .500, as their offense continues to be the story of their season.

Led by All-Star infielders Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Marcus Semien, the two sluggers have combined for 55 home runs and 39 doubles in 2021. Guerrero is making a serious case for AL MVP, perhaps only topped by two-way Angels star Shohei Ohtani. Amongst American League batters, Guerrero ranks second in batting average (.329), second in home runs (32), and first in RBIs (79). He also took home MVP honors at the All-Star Game earlier this month, blasting a home run to give the AL a 2-0 lead in their eventual win.

Other Blue Jay bats were represented in the mid-summer classic as well. Both Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez made the AL squad for the first time in their careers. With respective OPS+ numbers of 120 and 125, they have helped give Toronto one of the most powerful lineups in all of baseball.

Overall, the Blue Jays have hit 144 home runs this season, tied for the major league lead. Power has not been an issue for the team. If the Jays want to make a postseason run, they’ll need their pitching to step up down the stretch.

On the mound, the Blue Jays pitching staff has a cumulative ERA of 4.03, which ranks slightly better than league average. Robbie Ray has been the Jays best starter this season, pitching to a 3.12 ERA and 142 strikeouts over 112 1/3 innings pitched. Hyun Jin Ryu has fared similarly, with a 3.32 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 105 2/3 innings pitched. The bullpen has been led by Jordan Romano, whose seven saves leads the team. He’s put up a 2.41 ERA in 33 2/3 innings pitched.

The last time the Blue Jays visited Flushing, NY, the teams split a pair of blowout wins. On June 15, 2018, the Mets won 12-2, with the Jays winning 12-1 the following day.

Friday, July 23, 2021: RHP Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63 ERA) vs. LHP Steven Matz (8-4, 4.43 ERA)

In a time of the season when the Mets need pitching reinforcements more than ever, Tylor Megill has stepped up massively. Over his past three starts, the rookie has pitched 14 2/3 innings, while allowing just two earned runs. 1.23 ERA and 16 strikeouts over this span. His season ERA+ of 150 might allow him a chance to carve out a significant role in the bullpen, even once the usual group of starters finally all return (namely Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Carlos Carrasco). Not many people expected Megill to even be a part of the Mets rotation this season, so the fact that he’s doing so while dominating is extremely impressive.

Steven Matz makes his return to Citi Field. The Long Island product, who spent six seasons in Queens with the Mets, was traded to Toronto this past offseason. While he had many bright moments as a Met, he never truly lived up to the hype as a top prospect. Now he’s been giving a fresh start with a new team and is posting his best ERA+ (101) since 2016. His last start on July 18 vs. Texas was one of his best outings of the season. Matz pitched five shutout innings, allowing just three hits and striking out two batters. I’d expect Matz to get a nice round of applause from the Mets faithful as he takes the Citi Field mound in an away jersey for this first time in his major league career.

Saturday, July 24, 2021: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.99 ERA) vs. LHP Hyun Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.32) ERA)

Walker, the Mets lone All-Star besides Jacob deGrom (who did not play in the exhibition game), was shelled in his last start at PNC Park. After retiring the first batter of the game, things completely fell apart for Walker, as he allowed six runs (five earned) in just 1/3 innings pitched. The inning included a controversial three-run infield single, which saw Walker purposely knock a ball straddling the foul line toward the Mets dugout, allowing all three Pirate runners to score while confusion ensued. Manager Luis Rojas was quickly on the field arguing in the aftermath of this play, was ejected, and then subsequently suspended for two games for making contact with umpires. Despite the tough day in Pittsburgh, Walker still holds a sub-3.00 ERA and remains one of the Mets best arms.

In his second season as a Blue Jay, Ryu has continued to be one of the league’s premier pitchers. His last start, and his first since the All-Star break, was also one of his best performances of the season. Ryu went seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out four Ranger batters. He’s only allowed more than four earned runs in a game once this season, in a 13-1 June 4 loss to Houston. In that contest, Ryu went 5 2/3 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned), while also giving up two home runs. Despite some occasional struggles, Ryu’s ERA has not risen above 3.65 all season

Sunday, July 25, 2021: TBD vs. RHP Ross Stripling (3-6, 5.04 ERA)

The Mets have yet to name a starter for Sunday.

Stripling has had a tough going for the Jays this year, and his last start vs. Boston was somewhat a microcosm of this season. In 1/3 innings against the Red Sox, Stripling allowed six runs on four hits and two walks, not striking out a batter either. After a May 19 start in which he allowed six runs, Stripling’s ERA sat at a very-high 7.20. But in a span from May 24 through July 3, Stripling pitched to a 2.35 ERA in 46 innings, which is a good sign for the second half of his season.

It was a bumpy start that hurt his overall season numbers, but Stripling is a veteran arm who has pitched well in the past for division-winning Dodger teams. He has the track record to put his struggles behind him and give the Blue Jays a much-needed quality arm over these next two months. The Jays will need him to step up as they attempt to make a playoff run.

Prediction

Well, my prediction for those seven games against the Pirates did not go too well. I had the Mets going 6-1, and they won just three games. Now the Mets face a new club that is significantly better than the Buccos, while going up against three quality arms (including one that they are very familiar in in Matz). But the Mets bats are hot (we saw what the lineup did in Cincinnati) and I think returning home continues to fuel this ball club. What a story it would be for Matz to win in his return to Queens- I think he pitches a gem tonight and gives Toronto the win. But the Mets close out the series with two consecutive wins, including a bounce-back performance from Walker on Saturday.

Mets win the series 2-1, before opening one of their biggest tests of the season: a five-game set against the Atlanta Braves.