Jaylen Palmer/Photo by Allen Greene Photography
Jason Stark of The Athletic reports second base will be moved inwards during the second half of the 2022 season. Between shifting the base and there being larger bases, the end result will be second base moving closer to first and third base by 13.5 inches.
Before getting into the who, what, where, when, or why of this decision, it must first be acknowledged this was actually done on a limited basis last season in the second half of the Triple-A West division (formerly and currently the Pacific Coast League). This is the first time it became known as there were no announcements on the rule change last season.
The end result was stolen base percentages improving from 74.8 – 77.0%. Of course, on the very limited sample size and other mitigating factors, it is difficult to know just how much of that is truly attributable to this rule change experimentation.
An interesting note in Stark’s article is the bases were never truly 90 feet apart. In fact, for various reasons, including aesthetics, second base was 88 feet away from first and third. Now, it will be just 87 feet.
With this experimentation, Major League Baseball appears to want “[t]o encourage more base stealing and maybe even more thrilling first-to-third base-running action.” Based on the limited data from last season, it does appear that the shortening of the base paths may actually result in more stolen base attempts.
While it will have the intended impact is anyone’s guess at the moment. However, it should be noted many of the rule changes Rob Manfred previously had experimented with in the minors have or will eventually be adapted at the Major League level. That includes the pitch clock, larger bases, and the runner at second in extra innings.
With respect to the impact on the Mets organization, Jaylen Palmer led all Mets minor leaguers with 30 stolen bases. He did so in 36 attempts (83.3%). Drew Jackson came in second with 24 stolen bases in 27 attempts (88.9%) for Syracuse. No other Mets minor leaguer stole 20+ bases in 2021. With the new rule changes, that may change.
While the focus is obviously on the action on the field, this will also have an impact on catchers. As an organization, Mets minor league catchers collectively only threw out 26% of attempted base stealers. That number may well dip further in the second half of the 2022 season putting more stress on Francisco Alvarez (23%), Patrick Mazeika (26%), Hayden Senger (32%), and all of the Mets minor league catchers as they attempt to make their way through the farm system and to the Major Leagues.
Of course, this will also have an impact on the ability for outfielders to make it to the majors. That goes double for a prospect like Carlos Cortes who is noted to have a weaker outfield arm. This rule change may well make it easier for teams to run on him.
Overall, rule changes like this carry with them some unintended consequences. In all likelihood, we may not discover them for the brief period of experimentation we will see in 2022. That said, the longer it goes into place, the greater the chance we get to see the full consequence of the rule change, and it will also increase the chances we see this rule change make its way to the Major Leagues.
