Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper released his Top 20 Prospects for the South Atlantic League, which featured no prospects from the New York Mets.
During his Sally League chat, Cooper fielded many questions about several of the Mets prospects at Single-A Savannah including first rounder Dom Smith who failed to impress scouts and other baseball people.
Andrew: Was Dominic Smith close to the top 20? Is his lack of power that much of a concern that he did not make the top 20?
J.J. Cooper: I was shocked at how unimpressed scouts (and managers) were with Smith. The lack of power is a big part of their worries. He hit one home run all year, which is a shockingly low number for a first-round first baseman. Yes, Savannah is a tough place for home runs, but Smith’s home run rate was third-lowest in the league among batting qualifiers. The rest of the bottom five are all teenage middle infielders or speedy center fielders. He also had the sixth-worst isolated power in the league.
Evaluators saw a hitter who was almost entirely hitting to the opposite field, to the point that some managers employed reverse shifts on him. No one really believed he could pull the ball. As one scout put it, even in batting practice, he saw a line drive hitter who couldn’t lift the ball. That’s a concern. Is he still a prospect? Absolutely. Can hitters learn to turn on balls for pull power? Sometimes. You could find a scout or two who were sold on Smith developing into a solid MLB first baseman, but they were in the minority
TNJ: How does Dom Smith go from 92nd on your Top 100 Prospects list to to not even making the Top 20 in the SAL after a solid if unspectacular year as one of the youngest players in the league? OK, he looked like he spent more time at In n Out Burger than the gym last offseason, but the elite barrel to ball skills and strike zone understanding still seem to be there. What gives?
J.J. Cooper: Starting out with back-to-back Smith questions because this is a pretty useful summation of why Smith didn’t make it. Solid if unspectacular is going too far to me. I’d say it was a poor year, as you have to get more than .067 isolated power out of a young first baseman.You hit on some of the other things, like the fact that scouts didn’t like his body and his fitness level this year.
Fonz: Have you heard that Dom Smith was purposefully working on hitting to the opposite field this year to further his development (along the lines of Giolito shelving his breaking ball to work on his change, or the year that Votto started every at-bat in the hold as he took strike one)? Does that offset some or all of the criticism?
J.J. Cooper: Interesting if true, but even if that supposition is granted, if you aren’t pulling fastballs on the inner half then you’re not working on a skill you will need eventually. It’s one thing to line a ball on the outer half the other way, when scouts see a hitter going to other way on pitches on the inner or outer half, it’s a concern to them.
Dave: What was your opinion on Champ Stuart – does he have a ML future? The guy can FLY
J.J. Cooper: He’s not as fast as Jarrod Dyson but he’s further along in his development at the plate than Dyson was at the same age, so I can’t say he doesn’t have a chance to be a big leaguer. Ideally, he’d be a switch-hitter. Hitting righthanded may make it tougher for him to stick if he gets close to the big leagues. But he can really run, he has acres of range in the outfield and a better arm than most of those speedy OF types. And he’s shown he can draw a walk.
D J: Were there any Savannah players close to being named in the top 20?
J.J. Cooper: Dario Alvarez is a hard guy to rank as someone who clearly shouldn’t have been in Savannah, but he was dominant. Cecchini was in the 20-30 range as well. Smith who we have already covered was a little behind Cecchini and Akeel Morris, a righthander with dominating numbers and a plus fastball and change, could have cracked a top 30-35. We’ve already covered Champ Stuart as well. Gsellman’s fastball is a little light. Ricky Knapp has four solid pitches but no plus one. Miller Diaz is another reliever with a big fastball (93-94) and some success. Scouts were skeptical of how well John Gant‘s stuff will play at higher levels. Some did see L.J. Mazzilli as a future role player.
Hat tip to Teddy for the heads-up…
