HT: 6’3” WT: 225 Date of Birth: 04/17/2001 (18)
School: Seminole (Florida)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Stats: Senior Year – 56 Innings, 0.99 ERA, 14 Walks, 108 Strikeouts
Background
Widely regarded as the top prep arm going into the 2019 draft, Allan had an arm that many teams coveted. Holding high draft prospect rankings – 13th on MLB.com; 16th on Baseball America; 20th on Fangraphs – it was widely expected that Allan would be one of the first pitchers taken on day one, and certainly the first prep arm. Quinn Prestor, who was drafted 18th overall by the Pirates, and signed for a 3.40-million dollar bonus, ended up being the first prep pitcher taken. Then Daniel Espino (24th to Cleveland). Then Blake Walston (26th to Arizona). Then Brennan Malone (33rd, Compensatory Round C to Ariona). Then JJ Goss (36th, Competitive Balance Round A to Tampa). Then we were out of the first round entirely without Allan being selected at all. To put this into perspective, ten prep arms went in this draft, including Mets second-round pick Josh Wolf, before Matthew Allan was selected by the Mets with the 89th pick in the draft.
Teams were concerned about two big things regarding Allan on day one, and none of them were related to his ability. First, it seemed that Allan was all but certainly following up with his commitment to Florida. Secondly, it was widely speculated that he would want a four-million dollar signing bonus to sway him from his commitment. Nevertheless, the Mets took him in the third round, and got him to sign for 2.5-million dollars flat, the largest bonus a third-rounder has ever received. Mets Vice President of Amateur Scouting, Tommy Tanous, was quoted saying that he was “very surprised” that Allan was available where he was taken, and that it was “too good to pass up.”
While compensatory and competitive balance picks picks are able to be traded, your standard picks still cannot. Nevertheless, the Mets getting two top-15 talents in one draft is probably as close to “trading up” for a pick as one could get in baseball.
Scouting
MLB.com gave Allan the following scouting grade:
Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
They note that Allan hits 97 MPH on his four-seam fastball consistently, and maintains velocity deep into games. While mentioning the control ability of his top two pitches, his fastball and curveball, MLB.com also mentions that his changeup “has also taken a step forward, giving him a third at least above-average pitch.”
Baseball America said of Allan’s fastball and curveball combo that “both pitches could project as 70-grade offerings down the line.” Baseball America also believes that Allan’s changeup could become an “average third offering.”
Fangraphs also had this to say about Allan: “Allan was one of the top few pitchers in the class for a while, including all summer. He flashed 55 or 60 with all three pitches in short stints at multiple events, then came out this spring with more arm speed, sitting 93-96 and hitting 97 mph in most of his starts. His curveball also ticked up and flashed 65 or 70 on his best outings, and though he didn’t throw his changeup much in high school, it did flash 55 over the summer.”
Allan is seen as a pitcher with a clean delivery and repeatable motion. All concerns about his physique seem to have been put to rest.
Improving his command in his college season, Allan has shown the ability to challenge hitters, as well overpower them with his arsenal. Running 97 MPH against high school competition almost isn’t fair, and Perfect Game had his fastball in the 99.79 percentile among all high school pitchers. Beyond just velocity, Allan has been able to command the pitch well, and it immediately becomes one of the best fastballs in the Mets organization. His 12-6 curveball is already a solid out pitch, and he possesses the ability to throw it in and out of the strike zone.
For reference, enjoy with video of Allan’s perfect game in the Division 2 Semifinals, in which he struck out 17 batters, and lead the Seminoles to their first Regional Finals appearance since 2001:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Do_ZPYPFtPA
Video Courtesy of Max Preps
Development
On July 12, Allan was assigned to Mets rookie ball affiliate the Gulf Coast League Mets, joining second-round pick Josh Wolf. Allan is following the same trajectory as Simeon Woods-Richardson, the Mets 2018 second-round pitcher out of high school. Like Woods-Richardson, he is getting a late start to short-season ball (Woods-Richardson pitched his first game for the Mets affiliate on the 22nd of July). Also similarly, he could move to Kingsport rather quickly with an impressive early performance.
Expect Allan to start the 2020 season with Mets A-ball affiliate the Columbia Fireflies. The rest of the 2019 season should be a showcase of what Allan is able to do with his current arsenal, and potentially working in his changeup in a bit more. Afterwards, during the 2020 season, one could expect the Mets to try to add another pitch to his arsenal much in the way that they have with 2018 seventh-round pick Kevin Smith, and his new two-seamer.
Allan has the make-up of a frontline starter, but the difference in what kind of player he will become is likely going to depend on how he is able to extend and advance his ability in pro ball. Maintaining the improved control that he found this season against, but against better hitters will be of prime importance for Allan. Sitting on two plus pitches, it’s what’s going to come between those two pitches that will hold the reins of his destiny.
