Here’s a quick update to this article. On Thursday, agent Scott Boras told Matt Ehalt of NorthJersey.com that the Mets have not reached out to him about a possible extension deal for Matt Harvey, who can become a free agent after the 2018 season.
“I always leave it up to the teams to approach us about those things like Washington did with Strasburg,” Boras said. “We just keep our doors open and evaluate things as it comes.”
Boras told Ehalt that Harvey is feeling good and is ready for his start against the Colorado Rockies on Friday night.
“He’s keeping his team in a position to win in most and I think his velocity and his strength is fine. He’s in great condition.”
After a sluggish start to the season, Harvey has looked good and made some big strides in his last two starts.
Original Article – May 12
In light of Stephen Strasburg’s new seven year, $175 million dollar contract, I wanted to examine the idea of extending Matt Harvey. The framework for an extension is there, and it would reward Harvey for putting the team first last season. Super agent Scott Boras has an often mistaken reputation for not letting his players forego or delay free agency to sign an extension with the current team. Sure, like any agent, his goal is to get maximum value for his clients. But a number of his clients have signed multi-year deals prior to reaching free agency.
As MMO’s own Mathew Brownstein pointed out;, Strasburg’s deal is a record amount for a pitcher who has undergone Tommy John Surgery. It also includes two opt-outs after the third and fourth seasons, and has an insane $70 million deferred. While Strasburg was slated to be the top prize in this offseason’s free agent pool, Harvey still has two more years of arbitration before hitting free agency. With a healthy typical Strasburg season, it is a safe assumption that Nationals’ ace left some money on the table in inking the deal.
So what would an extension look like for Harvey?
To begin, we have to project what arbitration would look like. Arbitrators typically look at counting stats and comparable players. As such, we can take a look at David Price, who between his first and second arbitration years went from $4.35M to $10.1M,. So a similar escalation for a healthy Matt Harvey could and should be expected.
It should be noted that Price won the Cy Young award heading into that off-season, and while we can hope for the same for Matt, his slow start probably prevents that. Taking inflation into account, the money would even out. Price went on to make $14 million the following off-season, and again a similar increase could and should be expected for Harvey. We can safely pencil in a total of $24 million for Harvey’s arbitration years.
Then things get pricey; if he reaches FA it should be expected that Harvey would try to top Price’s $217 total compensation package. Obviously an early re-signing is done in an effort to prevent such a thing. With Strasburg’s AAV of $25 million as the benchmark, we have an idea of the likely neighborhood. Guaranteeing the arbitration years generally comes in exchange for a discount on the AAV of any FA years bought out. A contract with the basics laid out is in the chart below:
What I propose is a seven-year deal valued at $153 million dollars. The deal is really about cost certainty and extending the window in which the Mets’ young starting pitchers are together. Boras would most likely ask for and get an opt-out after three years for his client. But it does keep Harvey in a Mets uniform for at least one additional season at a very reasonable cost.
I know the popular (or at least vocal) sentiment is to trade him. But putting the best players on the field should always be the goal. Unless a controllable top 50 major league player is coming back in a return at a position that offers significant improvement I don’t see it being a net gain to a contending team. Extending him also offers a later window to do so if warranted. If he were dealt there would immediately be a need for a starter who can offer 200 innings of high caliber pitching.
