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Max Scherzer seemed to have turned a corner. But his last two outings, specifically Tuesday’s latest clunker, would have many thinking otherwise. Scherzer’s regression over his last two starts is a cause for serious concern.

For the second time in as many games, Scherzer was again handed a lead of three runs or more and was unable to hold it. A 5-1 lead was quickly turned into a 6-5 deficit. He seemingly settled in after giving up a first-inning home run to Giancarlo Stanton, but was failing to hit his spots and miss bats—two things that have been consistent outliers when Scherzer has struggled this season.

Scherzer couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning of Tuesday night’s contest, and his final line read: 3.1 innings pitched, seven hits, six runs, zero walks and two strikeouts. A 5-1 lead was quickly turned into a 6-5 deficit and, later, a 7-6 loss. Yes, the Mets were 3-for-15 with runners in scoring position and left 11 on base, but the offense also spotted Scherzer a four-run lead.

“This is simple,” Scherzer said regarding Tuesday night’s struggles. “I struggled with my slider. Every time I was throwing my slider, it was hanging. I wasn’t executing it the way I need to, especially with two strikes. I was not getting that pitch in the locations I wanted to, no matter what my thought process was … It was hanging in all situations. And it’s what they were doing damage on me against.”

“I don’t think it’s necessarily: back to the drawing board,” Scherzer continued. “I got to make a little fix on it because when you go out there and pitch, you know when you rip a slider and you know when you rip a slider in the right locations. I had the feeling that I was coming through the baseball. My action was to get to those locations and it just wasn’t there. Usually it’s a little fix to get everything right on time, and then you get it back. Because at the end of the day, I can pitch with a slider.”

It should be noted that both of the Yankees’ home runs against Scherzer came off sliders. Scherzer has allowed five home runs this season on sliders, which has been an effective pitch for him in years past. Last year, no opposing hitter had hit that pitch for a home run, and that was with a higher percentage of usage. 

Scherzer allowed 13 home runs in 145.1 innings pitched last season. So far in 2023, he’s already allowed 10 home runs in 56.1 innings pitched. So, it’s not just the slider. Scherzer has been susceptible to the home run all season, but that particular trend with the slider was exacerbated when he missed his spots, which he pointed to being the issue on Tuesday.

The Braves attacked Scherzer’s slider during his start last week as well. It just hasn’t been an effective pitch for him all season long, as coming into Tuesday’s game, opposing hitters were hitting .269 with three home runs off of the pitch. Thanks to Stanton and DJ LeMahieu, that number is now five. 

Another concerning trend in Scherzer’s regression is that his fastball velocity was down again. Scherzer’s average fastball velocity has consistently dipped from the first inning on and that trend continued on Tuesday. Scherzer’s fastball has an average velocity of 93.1 mph in the first inning, compared to 92.6 mph in the second and third innings. And it only continues to go down from there.

His fastball velocity comes and goes, just as it has all season. And at this point in his career, Scherzer’s secondary stuff, particularly his slider on Tuesday, is just not fooling opposing hitters. 

The Mets needed Scherzer to shove in his last two starts, and he’s failed to come through both times, as he’s allowed 11 runs on 18 hits in nine innings of work. His ERA has now ballooned up to 4.45 ERA. Scherzer maintained that he has to be better, but just how much longer the Mets can wait for that to happen remains to be seen. 

The rest of the Mets season largely hinges on Scherzer being Scherzer and in order for that to happen, they need him to figure out why his slider has been so poor as of late.