Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets mustered one run over 18 innings in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox this week.

This is despite the pitching staff allowing just three runs–all three by starters David Peterson and Jacob deGrom across 12 innings–to an efficient Red Sox offense that led the league (and still do) in batting average and slugging percentage coming into the series.

The Mets struck out a lot, they couldn’t get to Garrett Richards or Nick Pivetta, and the Red Sox staff–especially Matt Barnes–peppered the Mets with off speed inside and outside of the zone. Either way, the Mets weren’t able to connect with any of it. They had just two hits on breaking pitches this series–both singles. Pitching Ninja got plenty of “sword” content from the Mets the last two days.

Though the Mets are still just a half game out of first place, there’s plenty on a downward trend. Let’s talk about some positive stuff first, though.

3 Up

Miguel Castro‘s Off-Speed Stuff

Miguel Castro is turning into one of the best trade acquisitions of the old regime (in competition with J.D. Davis).

The hard-throwing reliever’s 2021 has featured much better control of all of his pitches, which is useful when you’re pumping in 100 mile-per-hour fastballs, 92 m.p.h. changeups and a much-improved slider.

So far, batters are 3-for-20 (.150) off his slider and changeup, with no hits notched in seven completed at-bats verses the slider.

2020:

April 2021:

Look how much tighter that change up control is–he’s pinpointing it down and in to righties and perfectly down and away to lefties. The slider lands in the zone at points this year, too, which can get hitters fishing if they know at some point there’ll be a slider worthwhile to swing at (rather than it rarely crossing over the plate where Castro wanted it in 2020).

Castro’s control has helped him garner above a 50 percent whiff rate on a total of 69 sliders and change ups.

His WOBA (across all pitches) and XWOBA are only .16 points apart. His ERA (2.25) and xERA (2.93) aren’t too far apart. He has a 0.34 FIP, too. These results so far feel like they can stick around.

The Beautiful Pitching Staff

The Mets staff gave up three runs in 18 innings this series, lowering the team ERA to 3.05. That’s fourth best in the majors.

Their starters rank second (2.65) in ERA, and the bullpen ranks 10th (3.83). Pull Joey Lucchesi‘s six runs in six innings out of the equation and the top four starters have a 2.27 ERA in 99.1 innings.

The staff leads the league at 11 strikeouts per nine innings and his tied for sixth best with 2.82 walks per nine. Met pitchers also have garnered the highest ground ball rate in the league as well as the lowest fly ball rate, which has led to giving up just 10 home runs in 19 games–the best mark in the league.

This pitching on this team has been all you could ask for and then some. Drew Smith, Carlos Carrasco and Seth Lugo are all expected to return in the next month, and Noah Syndergaard will be right behind them, so these rankings could hold for the year if all goes well.

Pete Alonso‘s First Base Defense

After a couple more slick plays during this series, let’s talk about Pete Alonso‘s defense for a second.

Before the season, Pete said he wanted to win a Gold Glove–whether that be this season or in the future. For a guy who was regarded as a guy who wouldn’t be able to stick at first base, or anywhere in the field, when in the minors, a Gold Glove is a pretty lofty goal. But that’s what Pete Alonso does: sets high bars for himself, then makes sure he clears them.

So far this year, Alonso sits at one out above average–tied for fourth among all first basemen in the majors. He’s also tied for first with 3 DRS, according to FanGraphs. These are huge jumps for a guy who, while much-improved from his minor-league days was still a below-average defensive first baseman with -9 OAA from 2019 to 2020 and -4 DRS in the same time.

He has to keep this up over a whole season, but even being an average defensive first baseman would be huge jump this year for Alonso.

Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

3 Down

Run Scoring

The Mets are averaging three runs per game through 19 games. That’s dead-last in baseball.

Only in the 1968 season did the Mets average less than three runs per game (2.98).

The Mets had nine hits across the two games this series. They’re not hitting well once guys get on base. They’re not hitting for power when guys are on base (or not on base for that matter). They’re last in home runs per game and nearly last in doubles per game. Their approach at the plate looks clouded at best and flat-out unplanned at worst.

They’ve scored more than four runs just three times in this season. They’ve scored more than six runs one time. Every team goes through its stretches, and the Mets have certainly gone through one the first 19 games this year. It’s less of a stretch and more so the norm so far. It’s hard to find any silver linings at the plate in these 19 games.

Swings and Misses on the Offense

Each series we’ve had different downward offensive trends–whether that be by the player or the team. This series (aside from not scoring runs), the Mets swung as missed at a lot of pitches.

They came into the series average in the league with their whiff rate at around 27 percent. This series, they swung and missed on 55 out of 135 pitches–a rate of 40.7 percent percent. The Mets also struck out 28 times in two games (they average about eight strikeouts per game).

The Mets already struggle to score runs, and they didn’t make it easier on themselves this series with making less contact.

Their First Place Standing

The Mets finally fell out of first place today. It’s pretty amazing they’ve been in first place for the last two-plus weeks despite their offensive play. They now sit a half game behind the Braves and Phillies, a half game ahead of the Marlins and a game and a half ahead of the Nationals.

These last two weeks would’ve been an excellent chance to pull a couple games ahead of Atlanta as their whole team was trying to figure things out.

The Mets only have one series with the NL East (this weekend versus the Phillies) for the next three weeks. If the offensive woes are solved by then, they’ll be in a much better position to secure first place heading into the summer with two series with Braves and one with the Marlins in the last half of May.

Bonus: Relationship Bragging Rights

This wasn’t a great 48 hours for those of us dating Red Sox fans.