Re-Signing Loup Might be More Attainable Than it Seems

In a year that proved to be very disappointing for the New York Mets, one area of their roster that didn’t underperform in 2021 was the bullpen, however, one key piece of that group could be headed out the door this offseason.

Though big-ticket items like Javier Baez, Michael Conforto and Marcus Stroman are expected to receive most of the attention if all three of these players become free agents, Aaron Loup should also be thrown into that mix as he served as one of the Mets’ most reliable performers throughout this past season.

Since spending his first six and a half seasons in the majors with the Toronto Blue Jays, Loup bounced around to three different organizations, including the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and the Tampa Bay Rays, before landing in New York last winter. Coming off his respectable showing in the Sunshine State, the 33-year-old earned himself a one-year, $3 million contract and was primarily expected to serve as a lefty specialist.

Luckily for the Mets, the 5’11” hurler quickly emerged into far more than just a one-dimensional reliever, earning himself a much larger role than previously anticipated. Since the three-batter minimum rule exists in this era, it had also become imperative for the left-hander to transition into a more rounded pitcher anyway – it just so happens he took a major step in that department in 2021.

With Loup excelling against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, he made significantly more appearances than he had in each of the last three seasons, which saw him compile the most outings (65 in ’21) of his career since 2017, resulting in 70 appearances.

Thriving in his new surroundings, the former ninth-round selection ultimately positioned himself into a high-leverage role, joining teammates Edwin Diaz, Trevor May and Jeurys Familia in that group. In turn, he was able to enjoy the top statistical performance of his career, and on just a one-year deal, the timing of this stellar showing couldn’t have come at a more perfect time.

Exploding past several previous career marks, Loup was called upon for 56 2/3 innings pitched, including a pair of opening starts, producing a remarkable 0.95 ERA, 2.45 FIP, .187 OPP AVG, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 50.4% GB rate, 26.6% FB rate, 2.7% HR/FB rate and a 1.6 fWAR rating.

Taking this a step further, the dominating lefty compiled 53 2/3 innings from out of the bullpen, allowing him to finish with the best ERA (1.01) and ERA- (26), the second-best HR/FB rate (2.8%), the eighth-best FIP (2.52), tied for the eighth-best FIP- (60) and the 10th-highest fWAR rating (1.5) among all qualified relievers in the majors, according to FanGraphs.com.

Based on this impressive production, it’d be difficult to imagine how the Mets’ bullpen would’ve fared without Loup in 2021, especially given the lack of support they received from the starting rotation in the second half. Hoping to avoid that scenario next season, there’s no question the front office will be pushing hard to re-sign the veteran reliever this offseason, and rightly so.

Though a contract extension is certainly a possibility, given how vital Loup’s presence was to this team, there’s understandably some concern surrounding this franchise that he may depart through free agency. While it’s impossible to predict the future, at least for most people, bringing him back for another season might be easier than it seems.

First, the former Blue Jay expressed interest in returning to the Mets numerous times over the course of the 2021 campaign, most recently as a month ago. After spending time in five different cities throughout his career, which has included a change of scenery in each of his last four seasons, it might be ideal to remain in one place this time around.

While Loup is expected to be one of the top left-handed relievers on the market this winter, there also shouldn’t be any shortage of quality arms available in free agency, most notably Kenley Jansen, Adam Ottavino, Raisel Iglesias, Archie Bradley, Daniel Hudson, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris, Ian Kennedy, Kendall Graveman and many others.

With that in mind, there’s a possibility the Louisiana native could be forced to wait until the higher profiled names are signed before receiving a suitable offer, which may prove to be a taxing process at times.

Paired with what’s expected to be a loaded free-agent class, there also already seems to be a set market for someone like Loup, who could end up costing slightly less than Diaz in 2022, as he’s projected to earn $10.4 million through arbitration.

Searching for a comparable contract to Loup’s current value, Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen and his two-year, $17.5 million contract could serve as perfect guides for this situation, especially since there are plenty of similarities between these two hurlers.

For starters, they’re the same age, 33-years-old, and their birthdays are only separated six months apart. In addition, they also feature very similar pitching styles as neither of them allows much hard contact, they both strike out a solid amount of batters, focus on keeping balls on the ground and weren’t plagued by home runs this past season.

As a result, their respective values, as per FanGraphs, have been almost identical in each of the last two seasons. In 2020, Treinen posted a 0.5 fWAR rating over 25 2/3 innings, whereas Loup earned a 0.2 fWAR rating through 25.0 innings. Then in 2021, Treinen recorded a 1.8 fWAR rating in 72 1/3 innings, as for Loup, his rating came in at just 0.2 points lower while completing 16 fewer innings.

At $8 million per season, based on his production from this past season, the Dodgers’ reliever appears to have slightly performed above his value and served as somewhat of a financial bargain. But considering he didn’t receive any save opportunities, he’d likely be hard-pressed to earn a dramatically higher salary on the open market.

Bringing things back around to the Mets, they could be forced to spend beyond this two-year, $17.5 million contract to retain Loup’s services, although that deal should serve as a solid starting point for both sides. When the dust finally settles on the offseason, there’s a fairly strong chance the Tulane product’s next deal might not be all that different from Treinen’s.

For a team that could potentially part ways with Diaz, May and Seth Lugo after next season, as they’re each just one year away from becoming eligible for free agency, it’d likely be very beneficial to feature at least one high-leverage reliever on the books beyond 2022 – even if that’s someone who isn’t a closer.

So while there might be a ton of skepticism regarding New York’s chances of re-signing Loup, in actuality, they probably possess the best odds of keeping the lefty around for more than just a single season.