Ranking The Top 10 Free Agents

As hope springs eternal for the four teams left this fall, the rest of the franchises in the league have their sights set on the winter. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top 10 free agents hitting the open market next month.

1). Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees

Coming off of one of the best showings of the 21st century, Judge has set himself up nicely for a huge pay-day after betting on himself this past offseason. He slashed .311/.425/.686 while putting up otherworldly wRC+ and fWAR totals at 207 and 11.5 respectively, both of which led the league by a wide margin. He casually broke the American League home run record as well with 62, building off of an already prolific career and likely helping to lock down his first career MVP award.

The four-time All-Star will be reaching free agency at the age of 30 and while questions will be raised about his durability, he still represents the safest bet among this year’s class due to his consistently elite play at the plate and in the field. One would think the Yankees will do whatever it takes to lock him up and have him retire in pinstripes after seemingly having some reservations about doing so in the past, but nothing is guaranteed.

2). Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets

DeGrom’s free agency may very well end up being the most intriguing of them all. Will he spurn New York and opt for a more relaxed environment, or will he be tempted to remain a Met after being courted by Steve Cohen and company while also being presented with a huge check?

There’s no doubt that he will be exercising the opt-out in his current deal, and as the best starting pitcher in baseball he will have no shortage of suitors. He put up a 3.08 ERA and 2.2 fWAR over 11 starts in 2022, which was somewhat of a shortcoming after putting up some of the best seasons for a starting pitcher in recent memory over the last couple years.

A four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young Award winner, deGrom has only recorded four seasons with over 24 starts and should have quite a bit of mileage left on his arm. However, he does still have significant health concerns and is 34 years old. Clearly, there are risks involved here, but there is no doubt that whoever ends up with deGrom will be getting an absolute game-changer on the mound every fifth day.

3). Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers 

You’d be hard-pressed to find someone who makes an impact in as many different ways as Turner. He has hit over .300 for his career, is one of the best all-around base runners in the league, and possesses above-average power while also being a plus defender.

In 2022, he slashed .298/.343/.466 and put up a 6.3 fWAR to go with a 128 wRC+. A perfect fit at the top of any order, Turner will be appealing to just about everyone when he hits the open market.

4). Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox

Bogaerts has been a model of consistency at the plate over his past five seasons, never posting a wRC+ under 129 in that stretch. The biggest question regarding his game has been his defense at shortstop, where he had below-average for a vast majority of his career. However, he turned things around in that department this season, putting up 5 Outs Above Average and finishing in the 89th percentile across for the stat according to Baseball Savant. The improved defense earned him a spot as a finalist for the AL Gold Glove at shortstop.

After slashing .307/.377/.456 and putting up the highest fWAR of his career at 6.1 in 2022, he has cemented himself as one of the best all-around players in a top-heavy class.

5). Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

It’s remarkable what Verlander continues to do at his age. This season, he put up a league-best 1.75 ERA among qualified starters to go with 6.1 fWAR over 28 starts, which should be enough to net him his third Cy Young Award.

Since 2018, he has a 2.33 ERA over 97 starts with 11.4 K/9, 2.90 FIP, 1.60 BB/9 and 19.1 fWAR. The obvious question at hand is wondering how much longer he can continue to pitch like one of the best starters in the game, but there are no numbers to support the notion that he is going to slow down. He has a $25 million option for 2023, but it appears inevitable that he will decline it.

6). Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

After a breakout 2021 season, Rodón one-upped himself and proved it wasn’t a fluke by finishing 2022 with a 2.88 ERA, 11.98 K/9 and 6.2 fWAR over 31 starts. Much like the first two starters on this list, he has a player option for $22.5 million that he will certainly decline. He does have an off-putting injury history, pitching in only 43 games from 2017 to 2020, but he is going to get a long-term deal regardless as possibly the best lefty starter in the league.

7). Carlos Correa, SS, Twins 

It was a surprise that Correa couldn’t fetch a big deal last offseason and instead had to settle for a three-year pact with the Twins that included multiple player options. After a good showing this season to the tune of a .291/.366/.467 slash line and 4.4 fWAR, he has made it known that he will be declining that option. His defense did take a step back this year, but he’s shown enough throughout his career to believe that was an anomaly.

It’ll be interesting to see whether or not he gets that long-term deal or if he has to settle for another one similar to his one with Minnesota.

8). Edwin Díaz, RP, Mets

Cue Narco. Díaz was an electric factory all year, putting up a 1.31 ERA, 17.13 K/9 and 3.0 fWAR over 61 appearances, and really cemented himself as being an elite closer and perhaps the best reliever in the game. He will be a priority for the Mets this offseason and could very well receive a record-breaking deal in the process.

9). Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves 

Swanson had a career year at a quintessential time, slashing .277/.329/.447 to go with a 6.3 fWAR, which was good enough to rank just outside the top 10 for position players. He’s a solid contributor offensively that is an absolute magician with the glove, finishing 2022 with 20 Outs Above Average and a Gold Glove nomination. When factoring in his power and base running, Swanson has a perfect balance across his game that is of immense value.

10). Brandon Nimmo, CF, Mets

Nimmo slashed .274/.367/.433 in 2022 and continued to build on his defensive progress from last year, finishing in the 91st percentile for Outs Above Average. His 5.4 fWAR was the highest of his career, and his .367 on-base percentage ranked within the top five in the National League. Nimmo is at the top of a shallow center field class this year, meaning he should have a ton of suitors and slot in as the leadoff hitter wherever he ends up.

The decisions of players such as Nolan Arenado and Chris Sale regarding their opt-outs remains up in the air, but it’s hard to envision either leaving their current situations.

The power shift in MLB could be on the horizon as this year’s free agency class has a surplus of top-end talent and could see a number of record deals handed out over the course of the winter.