
Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom took the hill in a big-league game for the first time in 16 days on Tuesday. While we went more than two weeks without seeing the two-time Cy Young award winner do his thing, it was kind of like he never left.
DeGrom was up to his usual dominance in his return from the injured list, allowing just one run on three hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts in five innings against the Colorado Rockies. Oh, and he added another hit. In the batter’s box, deGrom boasts a .471 batting average with an OPS of 1.000 through 17 plate appearances, all while holding the opposition to a .132 average while he’s toeing the slab.
It’s like playing a video game on the “Rookie” difficulty setting, at this point. One of the things I noticed after his latest start is that any blemish in the earned run column is going to raise his season-long ERA at this point. Despite just allowing that one run on Tuesday, his ERA rose:
It sure was nice to see this dude cutting up opposing hitters again after a little layoff. I love that he gave up just one run in five innings and his ERA for the season "balloons" from 0.68 to 0.80. Lol. #Mets #LGM (via @SNYtv) pic.twitter.com/huoVe0JFGI
— Matt Musico (@mmusico8) May 26, 2021
Of course, deGrom doing what he wants to hitters isn’t anything new, especially since his first Cy Young campaign in 2018. While I was sad about the number of wins he’s accumulated since then (because, you know, it’s shockingly low), this tweet puts just how good he’s been in perspective:
In 83 starts since the start of the 2018 season, Jacob deGrom has a 1.99 ERA and 28 wins.
— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) May 26, 2021
Those 83 starts span 534 innings and include a 0.91 WHIP, which somehow makes this ridiculous feat feel even more…ridiculous. Although the right-hander has been elite for virtually the entirety of the past three-plus seasons, there’s been a consistent theme, especially during 2018 and 2019 when a full 162-game schedule was played.
That theme is deGrom actually heats up and performs better during the second half of the season. Here’s a look at how he progressed and finished with a flourish to win his first Cy Young in 2018:

And, here’s what it looked like in 2019:

DeGrom’s first-half ERA from 2019 is inflated because of a rough March/April he endured — he entered May with a 4.85 ERA through 26 innings (although he did also sport a 3.13 xFIP during that same time). Even if some of his traditional metrics don’t show improvement from before the All-Star Game to after the midsummer classic, the rest of his profile shows he clearly leveled up prior to the end of Game 162.
So, why exactly is this noteworthy? Well, it’s because of just how dominant deGrom has been through his first seven starts in 2021. Using that arbitrary number as the measuring stick, this is clearly the best start to a season he’s had since 2018:

OK, so I lied a bit — deGrom’s HR/9 thus far isn’t the lowest in the table immediately above. But other than that, the ace is at his peak with regard to early-season production. What’s interesting is how he’s continued to do so with a rather significant change in pitch mix.
From 2015 to 2020, deGrom’s fastball usage steadily went down, from 61.8% to 44.9%. This coincided with an equally constant increase in slider usage over the same period of time, going from 15.8% to 35.6%. So far this year? He’s thrown his fastball at a 64.6% clip and his slider at a 23.5% clip. His changeup, which has hovered between 16-17% usage between 2018 and 2020, is down to 11.9%. Honestly, it doesn’t matter what he throws, because nobody can hit any of those pitches. Here’s a quick rundown of his strikeout rate and wRC+ allowed for each pitch through seven starts:
- Fastball: 40.0% strikeout rate, 55 wRC+
- Slider: 55.6% strikeout rate, -11 wRC+
- Changeup: 57.9% strikeout rate, -55 wRC+
Whoa.
It’s also been fun to compare his start to this season against other qualified big-league starters. At the time of this writing, the 32-year-old’s 2.4 fWAR ranks second in baseball, only behind Gerrit Cole (2.8). However, the one caveat is deGrom hasn’t registered nearly as many innings yet because of his short stint on the IL and also the Mets’ early-season postponements. So, he’s accumulated that fWAR despite placing 65th out of 67 qualified starters in innings pitched.
The only two below deGrom? Why, that would be his teammates, Taijuan Walker and David Peterson (both have thrown 44 innings).
This is a similar situation to what we watch with Mike Trout every year. They’re at the top of their respective games and produce ridiculous numbers, and just when we think they can’t get any better, they find a way to hit another gear the following season. Unfortunately, the other similarity between Trout and deGrom is the number of postseason appearances they’ve made during their career (although deGrom did go deeper into October in ’15 than Trout did in ’14, of course).
It’s been jaw-dropping to watch deGrom pitch like he has to start 2021. At this point, who knows where his statistics will end up once September rolls around. One thing that’s for sure, though, is the baseball world needs to see this version of deGrom in the postseason. Let’s hope the Mets can get healthy and make that happen.





