Kevin Smith – Photo by Ed Delany, MMO

One surprise name which has been appearing on Mets top prospect rankings has been LHP Kevin Smith.Baseball America has ranked him as the Mets eighth best prospect. MLB Pipeline has ranked him 11. This is not typically where you see former collegiate upperclassman selected in the seventh round of the MLB draft. That goes for double when that player was initially projected to be a LOOGY. So what happened?

Mostly, Smith has performed. With Brooklyn last year, he was 4-1 with a 0.76 ERA, 0.761 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, and a 10.6 K/9. Smith would begin this season in High-A St. Lucie, and he has largely backed that performance up.

In 22 starts between St. Lucie and Binghamton, Smith is 8-6 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and a 10.1 K/9. Looking at those 22 starts, he’s only allowed more than three earned in a start twice, and he’s allowed fewer than three earned in 17 of his 22 starts. Digging deeper, it seemed something clicked for Smith in mid-June, and he’s taken off leading to a promotion to Double-A Binghamton.

Double-A is typically viewed as the level where minor leaguers need to put up or shut up. Put another way, Double-A is considered the proving ground where the future Major Leaguers take a step forward, and the non-Major Leaguers have their holes exposed. If you look at Double-A through that prism, Smith is establishing himself as a future Major League pitcher.

In Binghamton, Smith is 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, and an 8.2 K/9 in five starts. He has held opponents to two earned or fewer in four of those starts, and he has limited opposing batters to a .187/.283/.242 batting line. Ultimately, with the level of competition rising, Smith has raised his game.

The main reason Smith is succeeding is a mixture of his deception and his spin rates. Entering the 2019 season Baseball America said of Smith:

His 6-foot-5 stature, long arm action and plus extension in his delivery afford him deception that helps his stuff play up. Smith pitches at 88-92 mph with a high-spin fastball that runs in on the hands of lefthanded batters, while his big-breaking slider features late break as it sweeps across the strike zone.

With his stuff and how it has so far played, Smith appears like he can stick in the rotation. More than that, right now he looks like one of the Mets best pitching prospect in the upper levels of the minor leagues. That said, Smith still has some strides to make before he can be viewed upon as a starter and not a bullpen option.

The biggest issue is his left/right splits. So far this year, he’s limiting left-handed batters to a .198/.226/.225 batting line while right-handed batters have fared much better hitting .260/.321/.373 off of him. He’s also been the beneficiary of some good luck in Binghamton as evidenced by his .239 BABIP, 83.9 LOB%, and his 3.25 FIP.

Despite the red flags you may want to over-analyze, this is a starting pitcher who is improving. His changeup is developing well, and as that pitch develops, he will now have a weapon against right-handed batters allowing him to stick in the rotation. He also has typically shown good control with an ability to strike out batters. Mostly, he’s hard for a batter to pick up leading to softer contact. Overall, he keeps the ball on the ground, and he knows how to pitch.

So far, Smith has been the Mets minor leaguer who has developed the most this season, and he has been a pleasant surprise this year. He has made a leap not just from college to Double-A in a little over a calendar year, but he has also made a leap in his ability. He should prove to be a pitcher to keep an eye on for the rest of this year and the next as he makes what now seems as his inevitable ascension to the Majors.