Free agency has begun without any movement at all yet besides the Minnesota Twins putting in the winning $12.85 million bid to negotiate with KBO slugger Byung-ho Park.
I have decided to give it a shot at predicting where this offseasons top free agents will end up and roughly what I think they could get on the open market. This is part one of a two part series where I will do numbers 26-50 next. Here are my predictions.
1. Zack Greinke – Dodgers. Six years, $160MM. Greinke opted out of his three year, $71MM deal after having a Cy Young type season for the Dodgers leading MLB with his 1.66 ERA and 0.844 WHIP. I just don’t see him doing anything but returning to the Dodgers who have the money to pay him.
2. David Price – Cubs. Seven years, $210MM. Price led the American League with his 2.45 ERA and is in the hunt for his second Cy Young award. He reunites in Chicago with manager Joe Maddon.
3. Jason Heyward – Yankees. Eight years, $172MM. The bidding will go high for the rare player hitting free agency at 26 years old coming of two straight 6+ WAR seasons. I think the Cardinals will be comfortable with playing Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty in the outfield.
4. Justin Upton – Astros. 6 years, $130MM. The Astros have a big hole in left field and have recently shown they are willing to do what it takes in the trade market to create a winner. Now is time for them to go out and spend some money as well.
5. Johnny Cueto – Red Sox. Five years, $110MM. Red Sox have a need at the front of the rotation and the organization has had Cueto on their radar for a while.
6. Yoenis Cespedes – Mariners. Six years, $126MM. Roc Nation already hooked Seattle up with another star in Robinson Cano but are still very weak in the outfield. Think the Angels, Rangers and Astros will show interest too as they all look to bolster their offenses.
7. Chris Davis – Cardinals. Six years, $124MM. St. Louis will be looking to added a left-handed bat after losing Heyward and shouldn’t rely on Matt Adams bouncing back to form. Chris is one of the few legitimate sluggers left in MLB, he has hit 159 homeruns over the past four seasons.
8. Jordan Zimmerman – Giants. Five Years, $100MM. His strikeout numbers dropped last year but still has a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the past four seasons. San Francisco was close to spending big money on a pitcher last offseason with Jon Lester and still need someone behind Madison Bumgarner.
9. Alex Gordon – Royals. Five Years, $95MM. Don’t see the Royals letting one of their cornerstone homegrown players go creating a big hole.
10. Ian Desmond – Padres. Four Years, $68MM. The Padres have needed a shortstop for quite some time and failed to address their infield needs last offseason. I only see the Mets and the White Sox as other teams being involved, combining that with a down year Ian won’t get nearly what he wants. Personally think he would be better off taking short deal to rebuild value.
11. Wei-Yin Chen – Tigers. Four Years, $62MM. Detroit needs some rotation help and they have a good working relationship with Scott Boras. Chen is arguably the second best lefty on the market and has pitched over 700 in the last four years.
12. Hisashi Iwakuma – Mariners. Three years, $48MM. Seattle can’t afford to lose Iwakuma who I think the rest of the market will underrate. He has a 3.17 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in his Major League career.
13. Ben Zobrist – Dodgers. Three years, $48MM. Dodgers need to replace Howie Kendrick at second base and Zobrist is the best option. I mean really who couldn’t use Ben? I think the Yankees and Mets will both be involved too.
14. Mike Leake – Diamondbacks. Four years, $64MM. Arizona GM Dave Steward has stated the D’Backs need for a top pitcher but I don’t see them spending for any of the top tier guys.
15. Dexter Fowler – Cubs. Four years, $62MM. The Cubs leadoff man will return to Chicago after seeing a strong market for his services that include the Nationals, Marlins, and White Sox.
16. Jeff Samardzija – Blue Jays. Four Years, $62MM. Samardzija was not effective in 2015 leading the Majors in hits, runs, and home runs allowed just a year removed from a 2.99 ERA.
17. Matt Wieters – Orioles. Three years, $48MM. Wieters has only played 101 games over the last two season but has the benefit of being the far and away best catching option on the market.
18. Scott Kazmir – Yankees. Four years, $52MM. New York needs an upgrade for the rotation and Kazmir had a strong 2015 finished with a 3.10 ERA, 1.208 WHIP in 183 innings.
19. Daniel Murphy – Angels. Four years, $54MM. Los Angeles has holes at second and third base while needing a left handed bat for their lineup.
20. John Lackey – Cardinals. Three years, $48MM. Resigning Lackey becomes a must after the Cardinals found out they will be without Lance Lynn for the entire 2016 season.
21. Howie Kendrick – Royals. Three years, $45MM. Kansas City has an opening at second base and Kendrick has been a consistent performer with the bat in his career.
22. Marco Estrada – Blue Jays. Three years, $33MM. Marco chose a great time to have a career year with a 3.13 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in a career high 181 inning in 2015. He was also 2-1 in the playoffs while holding opponents a .194/.205/.333 slash line.
23. Yovani Gallardo – Orioles. Four years, $52MM. Baltimore will be in the hunt for pitching this offseason but I think will be unwilling to pay top dollar for any of the upper echelon guys. Yovanni had a career worst 1.78 SO/W ratio and 1.416 WHIP but only allowed 15 homeruns in his first American League season.
24. Darren O’Day – Red Sox. Four years, $30MM. The Boston bullpen was a mess last year sporting the worst FIP in MLB (4.64) and 5th worst ERA (4.24). Darren is the best reliever on the market setting himself up prime for a bidding war.
25. Colby Rasmus – Giants. Three years, $42MM. Colby hit a career high 25 homeruns during the regular season and added four more in six playoff games. San Francisco had the fourth fewest homeruns (136) in MLB last year and need someone who can play left field and center.
Another name to keep an eye on is Japanese right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda who is expected to be posted by his team the Hiroshima Carp. He is 27-years old and coming off a season in which he went 15-8 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 206 innings. He is currently pitching in the WBSC Premier 12 Tournament for Japan and will not be posted at least until it’s completion.
Where do you guys think these top 25 will end up?
