Stat Line: 7 IP, 1 R, 4 H, 6 SO, 1 BB
Jon Niese dominated a weak Miami Marlins lineup to gain his first win since July 12th. Niese showed more than commanding his fastball, throwing five different pitches for strikes.
This article explains Niese’s ability to baffle Marlins hitters by utilizing various pitch movements and keen pitch selection.
Effectively Wild
Niese exhibited erratic command, completely missing and perfectly hitting targets all night. The unpredictability of pitch speed and location make it difficult for the hitter to comfortably guess or look for the right pitch to drive. When a pitcher is successful with this blue print it is commonly referred to as being “effectively wild”.
Niese being effectively wild correlates with three positive attributes:
- Keeping all pitches low in the strike zone, regardless of hitting the catchers target or not. This translated to a 64.7% groundball rate last night.
- Throwing a full repertoire of pitches (four or more different pitches) with very tight spin, making it difficult for the opposing hitters to pick up or decipher the pitch as it comes to them. Niese threw five pitches at more than a 10% usage rate (Four-seam fastball 13%, two-seam fastball 32%, changeup 18%, curveball 14%, and cutter 21%). This constant variation in pitches forces the hitters to begin guessing the speed, location and movement. With all those different components at work in the hitters mind, it causes more hesitant swings translating to weak contact.
- Pitch selection. Simply, Niese not only kept the Marlins hitters off balance by consistently mixing up his pitches but also set up hitters for poor contact and strikeouts. This was best seen during Christian Yelich’s sixth inning at-bat. Niese recognized Yelich leaning over plate with his front shoulder. To combat this, Niese threw a four-seam fastball up at Yelich’s shoulder to brush him off the plate followed by an 89 mph fastball located on the outside corner to strikeout him out looking. There is nothing special about two consecutive 89 mph fastball. However, there is value in setting the tone up and in with a fastball and changing the hitter’s eye level to set up the eventual strikeout pitch.
Additionally, Niese’s curveball and changeup showed especially tight spin producing noticeably sharper downward movement than previous starts.
Looking Forward
Next probably start comes Monday August 10th at Citi Field against the Colorado Rockies. Over Niese’s last six starts this season, he’s pitched to a 2.58 ERA with a 59.1% ground ball rate.
Stat of the Night
Although Niese exhibited a full repertoire of pitches, he still commanded his cutter at an 85.7% strike rate.
Thanks to @BrooksBaseball and @FanGraphs for statistics.
Follow Chris Zaccherio on Twitter @ziography for more Mets pitching insight that goes beyond statistics.
