Pete Alonso’s Hitting Woes Have Returned Once Again

Following a disappointing 2020 campaign, which saw first baseman Pete Alonso endure an extremely frustrating sophomore season, the New York Mets were confident he’d be able to bounce back strong this season but it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster type performance for him so far.

Wasting zero time to make his presence felt, Alonso hit the ground running out of the gate and excelled offensively through the first month of the season, where he produced five home runs, 16 RBIs, a .247 ISO, a .345 BABIP, a .376 wOBA, a 145 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .282/.354/.529/.884 over his first 96 plate appearances.

Thanks to this red-hot start, it seemed the 26-year-old had put last season’s hitting woes behind him and was on track to return to the previous form that he showcased throughout his stellar rookie campaign. But unfortunately, the 2019 National League Rookie of the Year Award winner was hit by a pitch on his left hand on May 5, which ultimately caused a significant decline in his offensive production.

Hindered by his hand injury, Alonso didn’t feel comfortable at the plate and failed to maintain his remarkable performance from the first month of the season, as he recorded just one home run, three RBIs, an .095 ISO, a .167 BABIP, a .260 wOBA, a 68 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .143/.302/.238/.540 over his 53 plate appearances from May 5-18.

If battling through an injured left hand wasn’t difficult enough, the 6′ 3″ first baseman sprained his right hand a few weeks later and was placed on the 10-day injured list on May 18, keeping him sidelined for nearly two weeks. After recovering from both of these injuries, the right-hander returned to New York’s active roster at the end of May and caught fire almost seamlessly once again.

Making up for lost time, the Mets’ offense received a major boost at the start of June as Alonso was crushing everything in sight, resulting in four home runs, 12 RBIs, a .371 ISO, a .321 BABIP, a .484 wOBA, a 216 wRC+ score and a monster slashing line of .371/.405/.743/1.148 over his 37 plate appearances from May 31 to Jun. 10.

With Alonso finally healthy, everyone was hoping he’d be able to continue leading this lineup into the all-star break, however, the talented slugger has fallen into yet another hitting slump and it doesn’t appear his recent struggles can be blamed on a lack of health this time. Unless he’s dealing with another injury and just doesn’t want to disclose it, which is possible, the 2019 NL All-Star is currently experiencing his most concerning power outage of the season and has been an offensive liability during this current slide.

Despite being able to create a respectable 22.6% strikeout rate, keeping it in line with his 22.2% clip for the season, the former second-round pick has been laboring in almost every other offensive category since Jun. 11, as he’s produced only one home run, four RBIs, a .065 ISO, a .235 BABIP, a .242 wOBA, a 56 wRC+ score and a measly slashing line of .196/.283/.261/.544 over his last 53 plate appearances.

Putting these alarming metrics into perspective amongst the rest of his teammates, Alonso’s current hitting slump has made him one of the most ineffective hitters on the Mets’ roster as of late, especially since he owns the worst fWAR rating (-0.3), the second-lowest ISO along with the third-lowest wRC+ score and wOBA among all qualified batters over the last 15 games, according to FanGraphs.com.

Expanding on his worst hitting stretch of the 2021 season, the 2019 Home Run Derby champion has witnessed a dramatic decline in his ability to generate hard contact since Jun. 11, which is very concerning for a slugger of his stature.

Unlike earlier in the campaign, Alonso is currently struggling to create considerable damage against opposing pitchers, as he owns a 37.1% hard-hit rate, a 2.9% barrel rate and a 91.2 mph average exit velocity over his last 35 batted ball events.

In comparison, the former top prospect generated an outstanding 56.2% hard-hit rate, a 19.2% barrel rate and a 96.0 mph average exit velocity over his first 73 batted ball events of the season – making him one of the top hard-contact hitters on New York’s roster during that span.

As a result of Alonso’s offensive drought, his expected results have understandably taken a major hit over the last few weeks, meaning his current hitting woes aren’t being impacted by any bad luck. In particular, his xSLG, which sits at .507 for the season, has nosedived far below the major league average and has also dropped to as low as .160 since the start of his hitting slump.

Similar to Alonso’s xSLG, the first baseman’s xAVG has also been greatly impacted by his lack of consistent hard contact, causing it to significantly decrease below the major league average – reaching as low as .135.

Based on this recent development, it’ll likely be extremely difficult for Alonso to break out of this offensive drought unless he starts creating plenty of hard contact in the near future. But given his history of doing exactly that over his three seasons in the majors, there’s a fairly good chance the Florida standout will be able to accomplish that feat as the schedule progresses.

Along with increasing the amount of hard contact he induces, the right-handed slugger must also reduce the 48.6% GB rate that he’s created since Jun. 11, which sat at just 35.6% through his first 121 plate appearances of 2021. Paired with his inability to generate hard contact, this dramatic increase in ground balls has resulted in a ton of weakly hit balls, proving to be a recipe for disaster.

Making matters worse, Alonso hasn’t stayed in the middle of the diamond nearly as often during this troubling stretch and has been pulling far too many balls to the left side, causing his pull percentage to increase by 3.2% (42.5% to 45.7%) over his last 53 plate appearances. In turn, the “Polar Bear’s” center percentage has dropped by 4.4% (30.1% to 25.7%) during that same span.

Looking ahead, the Florida native will need to focus on making much better contact, keeping the ball off the ground and also finding a way to direct more of his batted balls up the middle of the field. While it’ll probably require a little bit of time to make these adjustments, all three of those areas will be crucial in achieving his goal of an offensive turnaround.

While both Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have returned from the IL recently, which has already added a huge spark to the Mets’ lineup, receiving improved results from Alonso would undoubtedly help this team increase its offensive output even further while also removing plenty of pressure from the injury-riddled starting rotation.