Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY
Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections for the 2023 season, and the algorithm is bullish on the Mets chances this upcoming season.
The latest model projects the Mets to win 95.8 games, which is more than five games clear of the Braves (90.6), and six of the Phillies (89.8) in the National League East. The Mets are third overall and second in the NL in projected win total in MLB this season behind only the Yankees (97.9) and the Dodgers (96.1).
According to the model, the Mets have a 95.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, and a 57.6 percent chance of winning their first division title since 2015. The Braves are given a 22.9 percent chance of winning the East for the sixth straight time, above the Phillies (17.8 percent) and the Marlins (1.7 percent). The Nationals have a 0.0 percent chance of winning the NL East according to PECOTA.
PECOTA also thinks New York has an excellent chance of winning the World Series. It gives the Mets a 12.6 percent chance of becoming champions in 2023, actually higher than the Dodgers (12.4), and trailing only the Yankees (17.1). The model gives the Braves just a 5.4 percent chance of winning the Fall Classic, while the Phillies are at 4.1 percent and the Marlins check in at 0.6 percent.
In addition to win projection, PECOTA also likes the Mets chances of having an elite offense, despite the team failing to land Carlos Correa. PECOTA projects the Mets to score 787 runs this season, five clear of the Dodgers for the most in MLB. In terms of runs against, the Mets also project to be among the top teams in baseball. PECOTA has them allowing 646 runs this season, which is the seventh-lowest total behind the Yankees (569), Twins (613), Rays (625), Astros (632), Braves (633), and Dodgers (645).
It’s certainly encouraging that the PECOTA system thinks so favorably of the Mets chances in 2023, but it’s important not to get too hung up on projections. Last season, the model projected the Mets to win only 89 games, a number they blew past on their way to 101 wins.
The model is also constantly changing as teams perform above or below expectations, make roster changes, and deal with injuries. Six months from now, if PECOTA still as high on the Mets as they are now, a lot of things will have gone right in Queens this summer.
