The New York Mets are reportedly interested in bringing back Justin Turner, but he simply doesn’t fit in with their plans for this season.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted out on Tuesday that the Mets are interested in the 36-year-old third baseman, but the two sides are currently “not matching up on years/dollars.” Turner wants a longer deal than what most teams are offering (somewhere in the four-year range that would take him to 39 years old in year four). The Mets are likely only interested if it is somewhere in the two-year range.
While Turner has been one of the best postseason performers in recent memory and would be an upgrade at third base defensively, it doesn’t make sense for the following reasons.
Justin Turner Is 36 Years Old
It’s important to note that Turner will be entering his age-36 season, which is six years older than the Mets’ oldest starting position player (James McCann is 30). He’s also nine years older than current starting third baseman, J.D. Davis. Since 2018, Turner has had multiple injuries, including a left wrist fracture, a right groin strain, and a left hamstring strain (which sidelined him for 20% of the season in 2020).
His increase in age may also come with a decrease in power. In 2019, the last full-length season, Turner hit 27 home runs for the Dodgers but is projected to hit just 15 in 2021, according to ZiPS. He had a 2019 WAR of 3.4 but is expected to be worth 2.5 wins for the upcoming season.
No Room For Another Possible DH
Since Turner isn’t getting any younger, it is reasonable to think he will transition to being a Designated Hitter at some point in the near future, especially if Major League Baseball decides to eventually implement the Universal DH.
If there’s one team that shouldn’t bring in another possible DH, it’s the Mets.
New York currently has Dominic Smith — a first baseman — playing left field because they want to have both him and starting first baseman Pete Alonso in the lineup. If Turner eventually has to DH, then the Mets would have to keep Smith in left field — meaning that a poor defender in Brandon Nimmo will have to man center field, which is a sight the Mets don’t want to see for much longer.
Who Would Take J.D. Davis?
If Turner is the starting third baseman, then that moves Davis to the bench. But, how many at-bats would he really get at the bottom of the lineup as the starting third baseman anyway? It would be better for the Mets to trade him, but who would want him? Possible suitors aren’t going to want to give up talent for a third baseman who has -17 DRS over the last two years.
The Mets currently have Luis Guillorme and Jonathan Villar on the bench (two infielders who can play third base) on major league contracts. If the Mets sign Turner, the roster becomes flooded with five players who can play third base if Davis doesn’t get traded (and if you include Jeff McNeil).
Those five players would total around $20 million on this year’s payroll (assuming Turner gets at least $12 million in 2021). You don’t need me to tell you that Steve Cohen could spend his money more efficiently in places that need to be upgraded, such as the bullpen and continuing to bolster the starting rotation depth.
Is Turner Really Worth It?
Sandy Alderson bringing back Turner would be a great story after letting him go in 2013. But based on his age and how much better the Mets have gotten this winter in other areas, it isn’t like Turner would vault them past the Dodgers in terms of contending for the World Series.
In 2021, Davis is projected to drive in more runs and hit more homers than Turner and is only projected to be worth 1.7 fewer wins than the veteran free agent. When you take into account that he will be overshadowed by the additions of an All-Star shortstop (Francisco Lindor) and an All-Star catcher (McCann), Davis shouldn’t be too much of a problem as long as he can perform like he did in 2019 on offense.
