Very few backstops have the ability to manipulate the strike zone and manufacture K’s like Travis d’Arnaud. That talent immediately caught the eye of the Mets front office following his 2013 debut. His quick hands translates at the plate into raw power and bat speed.
There were obstacles and defensive flaws that d’Arnaud had to hurdle last year, but by the end of season, he had not only realized his offensive potential – but sustained it over the remaining 53% of his career at-bats. With his high grade power, is it too soon to ordain him the catcher of the future, especially on the heels of a promotion by Kevin Plawecki?
Since June 24thof last year, after d’Arnaud was called back up from the minors, he batted .272 with an .805 OPS for the remainder of the year. Translated into advanced metrics, that production was equal to a .350 wOBA and 128 wRC+. Experience-wise, that accounted for 257 of his 484 total at bats (53%), representing the majority of his major league career. The Mets are placing a high bet on his output so it’s important to determine what ailed him initially.
The first outlier that became immediately noticeable through his first 227 at-bats was a .219 BABIP. That’s the time between his 2013 debut and 2014 demotion, where he was a .189 hitter with a .269 slugging percentage. Most major league hitters eventually trend towards the league norm for BABIP which is around .300 and varying slightly from year to year. While the sample size is small, there’s such a drastic difference in that same figure once he returned from Triple A Las Vegas. What effect could the coaches out in the dessert really have had in that short period of time?
Credit Triple-A manager Wally Backman and hitting coach George Greer for implementing a simple, yet repeatable approach. The idea was to swing at good pitches in the strike zone, regardless of the count. The mechanical fix was even more simple, just a little back foot shuffle, but it arguably had the biggest impact on the rest of his season and possibly his career.
The major league staff had instructed TDA to move his back foot away from the plate in order to promote plate discipline. The result was an inability to cover the strike zone with the barrel of the bat and pitchers took full advantage of it (ESPN Heat Map). Once the AAA coaching staff recognized the issue, they moved his back foot closer to the plate, allowing him to square his hips up, be a power threat and cover that outside corner of the plate.
Also upon his return, d’Arnaud quickly joined teammate Lucas Duda on the hard-hit ball leader board, otherwise known as Exit Velocity. He broke in at #33 in the major leagues following the All-Star break and kept climbing on the list up to #17 by mid-August.
A major statistical improvement that emerged as a result of his mechanical fix and improved exit velocity was a spike in BABIP. His balls in play rate jumped to .287 over his final 257 at-bats, a far more believable career stat than his earlier .219 figure. Common sense tells us that the mechanical improvement to his stance was simple, but it allowed him to square up the ball and drive it with power again. Plus, you don’t need an advanced degree in sabermetrics to accept that a harder hit ball is more difficult to defend against and take out of play. As a result, the fixes created a higher percentage of line drive hits. There’s more to drill into on those 257 AB’s though, Citi Field might be a mental hurdle, but it has had adverse affects on hitter regardless.
At Citi Field last year, following his demotion, d’Arnaud hit .237 with a .729 OPS and a .243 BABIP at home, despite being a league leader in exit velocity. He struggled to get a high frequency of balls to land for hits, but when he made contact, it was strong. Notice the difference between his OPS and OBP? That’s a .450 slugging percentage, it’s yet again odd that he’s driving with that much power but still landing so few balls for hits. Strength and power will only improve with his offseason regimen and it’s reasonable to assume that home batting average will improve. Let’s, take it to the road.
His statistics away from Citi Field were astonishing during that stretch, almost as if he felt a clear comfort at the plate. By comparison to his output in Queens, he was a .314/.367/.901 player with a .330 BABIP on the road following June 24th. The issue for the wide difference? The Mets BABIP has dropped annually since the fences were first brought in to start the 2012 season. A partial explanation is the high frequency of defensive shifts that were applied to Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson last year. However, unless the ball leaves the park, the Mets have the worst chance in all of baseball to land a hit at home if their .266 home BABIP last year means anything. It’s only been three seasons with the previous dimensions, but this would be something good to pay attention to in 2015.
One quick anecdote that stood out during this evaluation was his ability to manufacture offense against divisional opponents, in any ballpark. The Mets had a healthy number of divisional matchups following his demotion and those were great moments for d’Arnaud. His .277/.326/.844 slash line was produced over 23 games at home against the NL East during that stretch. He managed to topple those numbers on the road, mashing the ball at a .298/.377/.931 rate in 12 remaining divisional games away from Citi Field.
There is a consistent correlation between d’Arnaud’s BABIP and his offensive production, so it’s reasonable to assume he’ll range anywhere from .250 hitter at home and a .290 hitter on the road. I allowed for some regression to settle in on the road because I believe his home average will come up, within reason. The power should remain consistent too, as he maintained that production throughout his resurgence.
His offense wasn’t perfect during those 257 at-bats though, there were issues that needed to be addressed this offseason. As I mentioned, his power was simply incredible and ultimately, it hid the fact that he only registered a .319 on base percentage during that stretch. That can partially be attributed to his aggressive new approach that focused solely on attacking pitches in the strike zone, but still, it needs to come up a tick. As a result his BB% dropped by an astounding 5.2% compared to his first 227 at bats, although, his K% did also reduce by 3.1% to help offset the lower number of walks. Let’s be honest though, does anyone really have an issue with that OBP if he’s slugging at a high rate in the middle of the lineup?
While it’s reasonable to assume top end prospect Kevin Plawecki will get his shot at some point this year, it’s hard to imagine GM Sandy Alderson awarding the job to the younger, less experienced player if d’Arnaud is mashing at the plate and providing the young aces with a high percentage of called-strikes. While power may not be a word that’s synonymous with the Mets, it’s a known commodity to Alderson and basically any GM who wants to win ball games.
This season looks to be something special for d’Arnaud, although this is just one man’s perspective. When the book is closed on his career, what do you believe TDA will accomplish in Queens?
