Noah Syndergaard has turned heads for his entire baseball career. Before he came up to the Show, he was known for having outstanding stuff which he could not command. Shades of “Nuke” Laloosh in Bull Durham, he threw hard but had no idea where the ball was going. Not even the mascots were safe. This year, pitching under the lights in New York, he has shown his ability to command his pitches and the numbers show it.
In 20 starts this season, Noah is 8-6 with a 3.31 ERA. In 122 1/3 innings, he has allowed 110 hits and walked only 29, good for a 1.136 WHIP. He has struck out 129 batters to date, coming to a 9.5 K/9 ratio.
What is most interesting about Thor is his home and away splits. He has had 10 starts each at home and on the road and it’s almost as though you’re looking at the numbers of two completely different pitchers.
At home, his BB/9 is a stellar 1.14, while on the road it is a bloated 3.51. In raw numbers that means in 71 innings at home he has walked only 9 batters, while in 51.1 innings on the road, he has walked 20.
The rest of his home/away splits are as follows:
- Away: 1-5, 4.91 ERA, 51.1 IP, 60 H, 20 BB, 61 K, 1.558 WHIP
- Home: 7-1, 2.15 ERA, 71 IP, 50 H, 9 BB, 68 K, 0.831 WHIP
There are many reasons as to why this could the case. The coaching staff believed he was warming up too early on the road, so they have been tinkering with his pre-game routine. His last start in Philadelphia was better, earning him his eighth win of the season and his first on the road.
His overall performance, however, was still lacking in some areas. In 5.0 innings, he allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9. Two of those hits were home runs, which accounted for all four runs that day.
That start was better than previous road starts, however it exhibited something that has been a recurring theme for him. In those five innings, Noah threw 96 pitches, which is far too high. This was nothing new, as his start before that in Baltimore exhibited the same numbers, 5 innings 96 pitches. Before that in Tampa Bay, 4 innings 98 pitches. Before that in Washington, 5 innings 98 pitches, and so on and so forth.
Changing his routine may help, but in order to be successful on the road he must get his pitch count down. Doing that means attacking the strike zone and walking less batters, admittedly easier said than done. As I pointed out before, his road BB/9 of 3.51 is far too high.
Everyone knows how good he is at home, but the Thor who pitches at home is the same Thor that pitches on the road. Same fastball, same sweeping curve, same everything. Attack hitters on the road like he does at home, and he would most likely get better results.
An interesting situation may arise should the Mets make the playoffs. Considering the Mets also have Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz, the rotation could theoretically be configured to make sure Syndergaard’s starts are all at home. If the splits continue to be drastic for the rest of the season, this might be a good option to explore.
Harvey and deGrom are both better at home than on the road, however the difference in numbers are much less staggering. Harvey’s home ERA is 2.26 against a 2.80 on the road, and deGrom’s is 1.57 at home compared to 3.16 on the road. Steven Matz’s sample size is too small to determine, but he fared very well in both his one home start as well as his start in Los Angeles.
Keeping Syndergaard starting at home in the playoffs is definitely an option the Mets office could explore. Whether or not they will discuss it remains to be seen, but let’s focus on making the playoffs first.
Speaking from experience as a high school and college pitcher, I do prefer to pitch at home. I have my routine, more fans are on my side than not, and I’m on a mound I’ve been on many times before. It does have a psychological impact on me, as I’m just more comfortable.
I have talked to many fellow pitchers about it and more often than not, they agree. However, it is my job as the pitcher to give my team just as good a chance to win on the road as I do at home. While I understand that it is “easier” to pitch at home, that is no excuse for lofty road statistics.
Syndergaard may prefer to pitch at home, which is completely reasonable, but he is a professional. I’m sure that he knows that despite preferring to pitch at home he needs to be just as effective on the road. Based on what he’s shown, I believe it is reasonable to expect that to ultimately happen.
There is something we all have to keep in mind. He just turned 23 years old and this is still his rookie season. He has a mere 20 major league starts under his belt.
Most likely, over time his road numbers will continue to improve and more closely mirror the stellar numbers he has at home. His work ethic to date suggests he’ll keep working and getting better, while improving and solidifying his routine as well. When that does happen, look for the Mets to have a third bonafide ace in their elite rotation.
