The National League East probably isn’t baseball’s deepest division in 2019, but many figured it’d be quite a battle to see who ends up on top by the end of September. They haven’t necessarily beaten up one another just yet, but with one month in the books, the race toward the playoffs has gotten even tighter.
As MLB teams prepared for Opening Day, the odds of winning the division and heading to the playoffs for each NL East team looked like this on March 26th, according to FanGraphs:
| Team | Win Division | Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 52.8% | 78.7% |
| Phillies | 19.4% | 49.6% |
| Mets | 14.1% | 39.5% |
| Braves | 13.7% | 38.2% |
| Marlins | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Even with all the roster shuffling the Mets and Phillies did, algorithms clearly favored Washington’s squad. Now with just over a month of play in the books, here’s how things looked entering Thursday’s games:
| Team | Record | Win Division | Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 12-17 | 36.6% | 57.2% |
| Phillies | 17-13 | 25.5% | 45.7% |
| Mets | 15-15 | 17.9% | 34.9% |
| Braves | 15-15 | 20.0% | 37.8% |
| Marlins | 9-21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Poor Marlins. They were so close.
The Nationals are still the clear favorites despite a lackluster April, but FanGraphs’ algorithms are far less certain of that based off 2019’s early results. Each team’s playoff odds are important to note, but upon seeing how the rest of the Senior Circuit is shaping up at the moment, grabbing the divisional crown is as important as ever.
Both the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have surprised. Even if they end up fading toward the latter portion of the year, they’ll at least be making the wild-card race more interesting than it already was. The NL Central also looks to be mostly as advertised, with the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, and Milwaukee Brewers battling it out at the top.
With the way things have transpired to this point, it’s best to assume that both NL wild-card spots will be coming from somewhere other than the NL East. And even with the way things currently are, the Mets should feel fortunate to be a .500 team at the start of May.
After all, they have a -20 run differential, which is the National League’s third-worst mark. Only the San Francisco Giants (-25) and the Marlins (-59) are worse. As we continue getting deeper into the season, there are a couple things to be optimistic about for the Mets, and one glaring concern.
What to Feel Optimistic About
Brodie Van Wagenen spent a lot of time this past winter upgrading the offense, both the starting squad and the depth behind them. That, plus the new perspective in hitting coach Chili Davis, has clearly been working.
New York’s 106 team wRC+ through Wednesday’s action is among the best in baseball. If they can keep that pace, it’d be the highest team wRC+ the Mets have put together this decade. The trio of Pete Alonso (166 wRC+), Jeff McNeil (161), and Michael Conforto (144) have unsurprisingly been leading the charge here.
The rotation as a whole has been a disappointment thus far, though. That’s pretty much the only way you can describe one of the worst rotation ERAs (4.86) as well as one of the fewest innings pitched (155.2) at the moment. But this is something to feel optimistic about because even though it would’ve been nice to see New York pursue Gio Gonzalez more before he signed with Milwaukee (or maybe that Dallas Keuchel guy), this group will only get better if their collective health stays intact.
Who would’ve thought that Jason Vargas‘ 4.19 ERA as a starter would be the third-best among the Mets’ Opening Day rotation? If you told me prior to the season getting underway that Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler would enter May with ERAs above 5.00 and the Mets were still a .500 club (along with Jacob deGrom having his own struggles), I’d be very shocked and confused, but also very happy.
This group needs to pick up the pace and some more depth would be helpful, but based on recent history and track records, their performance should improve.
What to Feel Concerned About
Well, this is an easy one — the bullpen. New York’s relief corps has improved their collective performance from earlier in the season, but the results to-date still aren’t necessarily stellar. Their 0.1 fWAR through the end of April is among the bottom third of the league, while the 5.53 bullpen ERA was better than only the Nationals (6.02) and Baltimore Orioles (6.27).
Edwin Diaz has been as advertised, Seth Lugo has gotten himself back on track after a rough start, and Robert Gsellman has put together more solid outings of late. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been much else outside of that, and Jeurys Familia‘s struggles have really thrown a wrench into perceived bullpen roles at the start of this year.
Considering everything that’s happened and how certain areas of the roster have performed over the season’s first month, the Mets should certainly feel lucky to be in their current position. However, there should also be optimism that they can continue pushing the envelope, and hopefully BVW gets the kind of reinforcements the club will likely need to compete for a division title.
One thing that’s for sure is the NL East will probably stay pretty tight for most of the year, which will make every game and many moments within those games pretty exciting.
