Mets First Half Report Card: Starting Pitchers

What a first half of the season it has been for the New York Mets’ starting pitching. As a staff, the team ranks second in the league in ERA, first in FIP, and fourth in WAR.

The most baffling aspect of these stellar rankings is the Mets have had 15 different starting pitchers this season. Yet, as a crew, they rank near the top of the league in almost every major pitching category.

Who are the catalysts to this tremendous first half? Let’s take a look.

The Elite Trio

The Mets relied on a strong trio at the top of their rotation. Jacob deGrom has put up a legendary first half of the season. Not enough words can describe how spectacularly he has pitched.

To best get a grasp how good of a year he has had, a look at his Baseball Savant page can help. He ranks in the league’s 98th percentile or higher in the following: xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, K%, BB%, Whiff%, Chase Rate, and Fastball Velocity.

If that’s not enough, his 1.08 ERA is the lowest mark in the first half of a season since Bob Gibson’s 1.06 mark in 1968. 

Taijuan Walker has turned out to be arguably one of the best offseason signings in baseball. His ERA of 2.50 is the eighth-lowest in the MLB, his FIP the seventh-lowest, BAA and H/9 ninth lowest, and HR/9 fifth-lowest.

This all in large part to his devastating fastball. He has relied on it this year and has batters hitting an expected .202 average. The ninth-best mark of qualified starters this season. He was named to his first career MLB All-Star Game.

Marcus Stroman is the final part of the Mets’ one-two-three punch. Stroman’s 2.75 ERA is one of the lowest marks of his career through the first half of a season. Stroman is also well on his way, per Baseball Savant, to post his lowest walk rate and highest chase rate of his career. 

However, it seems Stroman has been a beneficiary of good luck. His FIP of 3.65 and xERA of 4.64 are both higher than his actual ERA. His Avg. Exit Velocity,  Hard Hit %, wxOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and K% are all in the league’s 30th percentile or lower which is worrisome.

We also did see Stroman look a bit shaky in his last three starts before the break, allowing eight earned runs in 13 innings pitched (5.54 ERA). Hopefully, this was just a blip, but something worth watching going forward.

The Rapid Rookie Riser

In the same breath as Aaron Loup and Walker, rookie Tylor Megill is one of the surprising Mets so far this season. The rookie right-hander started with Double-A Binghamton before quickly rising to Triple-A Syracuse.

Through eight starts in these two leagues, he’s posted a 3.35 ERA. Due to solid play and several injuries among Mets’ starters, Megill was called up and has made four terrific starts.

He has compiled an xERA of 2.23, an xBAA of .151, and a franchise record of 26 strikeouts in only 18 innings pitched. The most impressive part of his game has been his use of his secondary pitches. Megill’s slider is generating an xBA of .103, one of the lowest marks in the league. It has been a stellar start to what could become a long and successful career.

Megill has quickly cemented himself as the fourth starter for the Mets. 

The Injured Lefties

Both Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson served as the Mets’ number four and five starters for a large portion of the season. Unfortunately, each went down with prolonged injuries.

Peterson strained his oblique on June 30th and is expected to miss the next several weeks. He has, however, encouragingly started playing catch. Lucchesi was not as fortunate and underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery. 

It was a mixed bag for each starter when healthy. Lucchesi was the more impressive of the two. After a rough start, he settled in. He owns an xERA of 3.56 on the season while having an xwOBA, xERA, xBA, BB%, and K% all above the league’s 60th percentile. He was having a career year before getting injured.

Peterson was struggling. After a bludgeoning against Philadelphia to start the season, he settled in for about eight starts. Then the struggles returned, as he allowed nine runs in three innings across two games. However, as soon as it started looking up again, he was blasted for six earned runs in three innings and removed after straining his oblique.

Peterson currently owns an ERA of 5.54 and an xERA of 5.80. He ranks below the league’s 20th and 10th percentile in several categories. Hopefully, when he returns, the Peterson of last year will make an appearance.

The Rest

Given the Mets injury issues 15 different pitchers have started a game for the NL East Division leaders. Now, some of these 15 have been relief pitchers in “opener” roles. Examples being Miguel Castro, Drew Smith, Tommy Hunter, Robert Gsellman, and Loup.

But, there have been some traditional starters to make appearances for the Metropolitans. 

Jordan Yamamoto (injured), Robert Stock (assigned to Triple-A), and Corey Oswalt (injured) have all made one start for the Mets. Oswalt and Stock faired decently, while Yamomoto struggled. The only other actual starter that started a game for the Mets was Jerad Eickhoff who turned in four decent innings in his first appearance, but got rocked in Washington for five runs in six innings in his second. 

Final Grade: A-

As a staff, it is extremely hard to give one grade given how many different faces have been part of the rotation so far. Overall, an A-minus seems fair.

The starters do rank at or near the top of the league in several different pitching categories. Obviously the main reason for this is the performance of their top three pitchers. 

DeGrom is currently the runaway favorite to win his third Cy Young Award in four seasons, while Walker and Stroman have both ranked near the top of the league in ERA all season.

Before the injury, Lucchesi had begun to turn his season around in a big way and Peterson had his moments mixed between all the bad starts. Megill’s recent run of success has been surprising and could make this rotation really dangerous if he can sustain it. 

In the end though, the thing that will really take this rotation over the top is getting a healthy Carlos Carrasco for the second half of the season. That addition could make all the difference in the Mets securing their first division title since 2015.