I remember, a little over two months ago, I sat down to watch the first game of the 2020 baseball season, a season I wasn’t even sure was going to happen for the entirety of the first portion of the year.
And now I sit here at two in the morning (my favorite time to write) on the couch after watching the final day of the regular season, and I have to say, it was a short but wild ride. Unfortunately, the Mets underperformed and missed the playoffs, but I still am unbelievably excited for the playoffs. Now that the landscape is set for the postseason, can’t help but sit down and write out my predictions about the first round of baseball playoffs.
For the first time in baseball history, there will be 16 teams making the postseason, eight from each league, playing in a four round structure that starts with best-of-three series. Below I take a look at each matchup in this first round of playoffs and offer my takes for each outcome. Let’s start with the American League.
A.L. Matchup #1: Tampa Bay Rays v. Toronto Blue Jays
The Rays had themselves a fantastic year, finishing the regular season with the second-best record in Major League Baseball and the best record in the A.L. They ended the year going 8-2 in their final 10 games, including a four-game win streak right at the close.
The Blue Jays, on the other hand, heated up at just the right time, and almost surpassed the Yankees for the second spot in the division. Powered by the return of Bo Bichette from the injured list and their hot young core of bats including Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto is a team to be reckoned with.
However, facing the powerhouse that is Tampa Bay, I truly don’t see a scenario in which the Blue Jay pitching can compete with the triple-headed beast that is Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton. Hyun Jin Ryu, who put together a fantastic season in his first year up north, slotting a 2.69 ERA over 67 innings pitched, is really the only reliable option for a starter on the mound. I say the Rays take this series and move on, 2-1.
A.L. Matchup #2: Cleveland Indians v. New York Yankees
Now this is an interesting series, because these are both teams that have struggled at points during the season and recovered to make the postseason. The Yankees started off hot, getting off to a 16-6 start to the season before dropping seven games in a row towards the end of August. They heated up again and remained in the playoff race, but then went on another five-game loss streak at the beginning of September. Injuries have plagued them, as they lost Luis Severino and James Paxton to the 60-day I.L., and multiple bats like Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres have missed significant time.
The Indians, on the other hand, finished hot and snuck their way into a tie for the second spot in the division, going 8-2 over their final 10 games. Shane Bieber put up a Cy Young season and Carlos Carrasco has been surprisingly reliable for a guy who recently missed significant time fighting off cancer.
The pitching matchups in this series will be intense, but I think the Yankees will take the edge, 2-1. Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka in a best of three series is most likely a death sentence.
A.L. Matchup #3: Minnesota Twins v. Houston Astros
The Twins were almost surpassed by the Indians at the end of the regular season but held on by one game to win the division. An incredible offense including Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Miguel Sano (to name a few) and a rotation headed by Kenta Maeda and his 2.70 ERA is a team that can do some serious damage in the playoffs.
The Astros, on the other hand, lost three games to end the season and finished two games under .500. If they still had Justin Verlander, I’d say they could put up a fight, but without him, the Houston pitching just isn’t going to compete against the Minnesota offense. I say the Twins take this 2-0.
A.L. Matchup #4: Oakland Athletics v. Chicago White Sox
The Athletics have consistently been the best team in the A.L. West all season. They tied with the Rays for the largest gap between first and second place teams in a division at seven, although they did lose five of their final eight games and played in arguably the weakest division in the American League.
The White Sox finished horribly, dropping seven of their last eight. However, they do have a better one-two duo in Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel, both of which are having good seasons. In a best of three, that could be dangerous. The White Sox have also been extremely good this season versus the lefty, going undefeated versus southpaw starters this season (14-0). The A’s have a good chance of sending two lefties into this series in Sean Manaea and Jesus Luzardo, which could prove problematic for them.
This is a tough series and could go either way, but I would give it to the White Sox in three games, 2-1.
N.L. Matchup #1: Los Angeles Dodgers v. Milwaukee Brewers
This is a pretty easy series. The Dodgers had the best record in baseball at 43-17 and sport a powerful offense and multiple reliable options on the mound for a three-game series. Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May or Julio Urias could all be death sentences for the Brewers, who finished with a record under .500 and had and underperforming year from their star player Christian Yelich, who batted just above .200.
The Dodgers should easily take this series, 2-0.
N.L. Matchup #2: San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals
The Padres are the number four seed behind the Braves and the Cubs despite having a better record than both of them, and it is solely because they reside in the same division as the best team in baseball in the Dodgers. However, this series will be an interesting one, primarily because of injuries. Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet, the top two arms in the San Diego rotation, are both dealing with arm issues and are questionable in terms of their availability, putting the ball into the hands of Zach Davies (2.73 ERA) and Chris Paddack (4.73 ERA).
The Cardinals are also dealing with pitching issues, as they will be fighting without the help of Carlos Martinez. That leaves Adam Wainwright, who has been effective despite his old age, and Jack Flaherty, who has not had a great year, to lead them to victory. I see the Padres taking this series 2-0, but they will need the help of the rest of their starters if they want to extend their run deeper into the playoffs.
N.L. Matchup #3: Chicago Cubs v. Miami Marlins
Every single sign points me towards choosing the Cubs to win this series, and I really do hope that is the correct assumption, but I can’t help but think that the Marlins just have some magic behind them. After fighting an enormous COVID-19 outbreak within the clubhouse at the beginning of the season, the Marlins have put together a spectacular year, finishing 31-29 for a second-place finish in their division. And, on top of all of that, they have only made the playoffs twice in their franchise history, and they’ve won the World Series both times. The story is practically writing itself.
Still, if we’re being realistic, facing Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish (who was in the running for a Cy Young for a majority of the season) and Jon Lester in a best-of-three series will be a significant challenge. I am going to go with the Marlins here, 2-1, solely because I like the chaos of the choice, but I’ll be rooting for the Cubs.
N.L. Matchup #4: Atlanta Braves v. Cincinnati Reds
If Mike Soroka hadn’t of absolutely demolished his Achilles at the beginning of this season, this series wouldn’t of even been a question. It would be him taking the mound, followed by Max Fried in game two, and the Reds would kiss their season goodbye.
But now, without Soroka, the Braves are in a tough spot. Sure, they are hungry after last year’s painful loss in the postseason, but their pitching is almost incomparable to the triple-threat of Reds’ pitchers in Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo. After Fried, who are the Braves going to start? It isn’t going to be Cole Hamels, who just started another stint on the I.L., and there really isn’t anyone else that they can rely on. Obviously, the offense is there, but in a three-game set, pitching will be the difference-maker, and the Reds have the upper hand. I say Cincinnati takes the series 2-1.
