Morton’s 2020 Season Is Reason for Concern

With billionaire Steve Cohen officially taking over ownership, a new era has finally begun for the New York Mets and it couldn’t come at a better time, as the team is looking to transform its roster into a championship contender over the offseason in hopes of making the playoffs in 2021.

While the front office must make some significant changes to the Mets’ position player group, it’s clear their top priority will be addressing the multiple vacancies in the starting rotation and they’ll need to fill those spots with quality arms as well. Since the club’s starting pitchers finished this past season with the eighth-highest ERA (5.01) in the majors, they must find a way to correct those struggles and prevent them from occurring for a second consecutive season.

Considering pitchers Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha – who were acquired last offseason to improve the rotation – struggled mightily on the mound during the 2020 campaign, team president Sandy Alderson and his staff must hit on every one of their starting pitching acquisitions this winter. That being said, this offseason’s free-agent class doesn’t feature any top-tier hurlers aside from Trevor Bauer, which means the front office will need to research extensively to locate the hidden stars on the market.

With that in mind, it appears New York has already started exploring the pitching market and some experts around the league believe they could be one of the favorites to potentially land a two-time All-Star who pitched in the 2020 World Series. Though he still hasn’t decided on his future playing career, pitcher Charlie Morton is considered one of the more desirable arms available and a recent report suggests the 36-year old could be convinced to leave the Tampa Bay Rays in the near future, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Despite declining his $15 million club option earlier this offseason, the Rays are still interested in keeping Morton around for at least one more season, as they’re reportedly willing to offer him a one-year deal worth $10 million. But if the veteran hurler demands a higher figure, then it seems he’ll likely be forced to take his services elsewhere, which could open the door for him to join the Mets.

Even though adding the 6-foot-5 pitcher would undoubtedly improve their pitching staff, his prior remarks about wanting to remain close to home, which is less than an hour away from Tropicana Field, seem to diminish his chances of playing at Citi Field next season. At this current state, outbidding every team in the majors for the New Jersey native is probably the only way to convince him to essentially come across the country. Since he’ll be turning 37-years old next month, that probably isn’t a wise decision for the organization.

Regardless of his current preference to stay in Florida, for the sake of this article, let’s say Morton displayed an interest in wearing blue pinstripes and was open to calling New York home for the 2021 campaign. Even if that happened, and it’s possible it could, the front office should still probably avoid signing the 2017 World Series champion, as he endured some concerning results this past season.

While this shortened campaign brought new challenges for every player across the major leagues, it was particularly difficult on the former Astro and those hurdles prevented him from replicating his dominating 2019 performance. Despite staying healthy and recording a career-high 6.1 fWAR rating during his inaugural season with the Rays, the right-hander missed nearly a month due to a shoulder injury and witnessed the majority of his results decline significantly.

Over his nine starts in 2020, Morton compiled 38.0 innings, producing a 4.74 ERA (1.69 increase from 2019), 3.89 xERA (0.59 increase), 3.45 FIP (0.64 increase), 4.01 xFIP (0.73 increase), 111 ERA- (increased by 42 points), 80 FIP- (increased by 16 points), 90 xFIP- (increased by 18 points), 1.39 WHIP (0.31 increase), .276 OPP AVG (16th-highest among all starters who completed at least 30.0 innings), .355 BABIP (tied for sixth-highest), 24.7% strikeout rate (5.7% decline), 25.0% whiff rate (4.6% decline), 5.9% walk rate (1.3% decline), and a 0.9 fWAR rating, according to FanGraphs.com.

Additionally, his batted ball metrics also proved to be extremely troubling compared to his 2019 performance, as he recorded a 24.8% LD rate (3.1% increase), 41.6% GB rate (6.6% decline), 33.6% FB rate (3.5% increase), 7.9% barrel rate (3.1% increase), along with a 35.1% hard-hit rate (2.3% increase).

Along with these worrisome results, Morton also sustained a slight drop in velocity, which has gradually become a major issue for him since the 2018 campaign. While there’s no question his shoulder inflammation played a factor, it’s still very concerning the former third-round pick started experiencing this problem before suffering his injury in August and couldn’t correct it after returning from the injured list.

Though his fastball and sinker were both much slower than usual this past season, the towering righty’s heater suffered a much larger decline, as its average velocity decreased from 94.7 mph in 2019 to 93.4 mph in 2020. As a result, his primary offering became a less competitive strikeout pitch and couldn’t induce as many ground balls compared to his first season with the Rays.

During the 2020 campaign, Morton utilized his low-90s fastball 35.5% of the time, producing a 30.9% strikeout rate (7.0% decrease), 25.2% whiff rate (3.7% decrease), 17.5% chase rate (4.9% decrease), 41.2% chase whiff rate (9.3% decrease), 12.7% walk rate (2.0% increase), 20.0% GB rate (6.3% decrease), 43.3% FB rate (9.1% increase), and a 33.3% LD rate (2.6% increase).

Adding to this, the Joel Barlow HS product also endured similar issues with his curveball, as it became a liability at times and couldn’t replicate its prior dominance. While his primary breaking ball didn’t suffer a decline in velocity or sustain any mechanical concerns, it still proved to be uncharacteristically ineffective and opposing hitters were able to generate a ton of hard-contact against it.

Through his 38.0 innings of work, Morton threw his curveball 32.7%, creating an 8.6% barrel rate (5.8% increase), 31.4% hard-hit rate (12.8% increase), 88.6 mph average exit velocity (5.7 mph increase), 38.7% strikeout rate (2.6% decrease), 31.0% whiff rate (7.1% decrease), 12.1% in zone whiff rate (9.0% decrease), 56.0% chase rate (3.3% decrease), 28.6% GB rate (23.4% decrease), 37.1% FB rate (19.0% increase), and a 31.4% LD rate (8.2% increase).

Based on these results, it seems that signing a pitcher who’ll be entering his age-37 season in 2021 could be extremely risky for the Mets and that’s probably not the ideal situation they’re looking for this offseason. Instead, they’d probably be better off acquiring someone who isn’t near the end of their career and could be relied on over the next couple of seasons.

Considering the front office is expected to be very aggressive this winter, there’s a strong chance they’ll be interested in almost every impact player over the next couple of months, which is something that has rarely ever happened in Queens. Whoever they add, one thing is for sure, the team’s starting rotation should take a positive step forward when baseball returns in 2021.

So just like with every offseason rumor, the fanbase should treat this latest one lightly, as it seems unrealistic that Morton will be taking the mound for the Mets next season.