Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

 

Major League Baseball has taken steps, and plans to take more, to increase fan interest in the game. Two facets of the game that MLB has targeted are pace of play, and the number of balls put in play during a game (as defined “the need for a fielder to make a play on a batted ball”).

It’s no secret that in recent years, there has been more of an emphasis on the home run. We now talk about “launch angle”, and have seen hitters ignore gaping holes on the diamond to try to hit a ball over the defense, and ideally over the wall. Let’s face it, home runs are exciting. The problem is that the pursuit of home runs can be not-so-exciting, particularly strikeouts which have been increasing steadily.

Not only does the desire to put one over the fence result in fewer balls in play (and to many, a less entertaining product), it also can slow the game down, as hitters take more pitches as they seek one they can drive. Next year, we will see a pitch clock as an attempt to quicken the pace of play, and a ban on infield shifts to try to de-emphasize launch angle and encourage more contact.

Putting numbers to the recent reduction in balls put in play, here is some information from Chuck Bannon of Qlik.

In the 2009 season, batters put 130,217 balls in play. In subsequent seasons, the number has dropped between 1k-2k per season and this year  (2019) is projected see only 120,320 baseballs put into play. The math shows a difference of 9,897 (-7.6%) less baseballs put into play. When you look at the numbers on a per game basis, we can see that in 2009, the number of baseballs in play per game was 26.79 baseballs needed to be fielded defensively. In 2018, the projected number of baseballs in play per game drops to 24.86. That is a drop-off of almost 2 less per game.

Two fewer balls in play does not seem like a lot, certainly not material in the game’s entertainment value. However, next year, coupling the shift ban, the wider bases (which may encourage base stealing), and the pitch clock, perhaps we will notice a games played more crisply, with more action. According to Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, the positive trend for more balls being put in play (perhaps resulting from changes to the baseball in 2022) is happening already. Rosenthal tweeted:
Encouraging news on the action front: According to MLB, 2022 has the highest rate of plate appearances resulting in a ball in play since 2017.
So, what does this mean? Rules can change, but players have to adjust. It will be a significant change for players to go back to a style that puts the ball in play, and do so with seeing fewer pitches. That could speed up the game, and certainly create more exciting plays. In an article in The Athletic by Ken Rosenthal, Wander Franco is depicted as the role model for the kind of play, and player, MLB wants to see. Franco in 2022 is seeing the second fewest pitches per at-bat in baseball. From Rosenthal:

Which raises an interesting question with Franco, who has drawn only four walks in 101 plate appearances, a rate that is the 19th-lowest in the majors and was only slightly better last season after he made his debut for the Rays in late June. Franco also has the 15th-highest chase rate, so he would seem vulnerable to strikeouts as the league adjusts to him. Then again, his 85 percent contact rate is well-above league average, and his OPS-plus is 61 percent above league average. He’s not some free-swinging, swing-and-miss machine. Quite the opposite.

As an elite hitter who puts the ball in play, slashing doubles and triples as well as homers, Franco represents the league’s desired profile.

Every player can’t be Franco, he seems to be a unique talent. However, the emergence of a player like Franco could represent the dawning of a new era in baseball. It will take time. The rule changes need to take effect (and produce the desired results). Players will always do what teams will pay for; teams will have to reward the “get-on-base, steal-a-base” guys for players to take that approach.

Baseball continuously evolves. In the past 55 years, we have seen the dead ball year of 1968, the contact-hitting, base-stealing Cardinals of the 1980s, followed by the explosion of home runs starting in the 1990s. We have an increasing reliance on advanced analytics, which to a degree has led to the valuing of home runs and launch angle.

Maybe it’s time for the next evolution. It’s clear that MLB wants more action, and is willing to try to legislate it into existence. Will the teams and players respond? Maybe they will, as long as it produces their two desired endpoints, winning and lucrative contracts.