Tyler Mahle

Position: SP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Date of Birth: 9/29/1994 (27)

Traditional Stats: 33 GS, 13-6, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 210 K, 180 IP
Advanced Stats: 4.9 WAR, 3.80 FIP, 127 ERA+, 8.4 BB%, 27.7 K%

Rundown

Tyler Mahle finally put everything together in 2021. Building off a strong shortened 2020 season, the Cincinnati Red right-hander found his groove and overcame one of the worst defenses in baseball for a 13-6 record and 3.75 ERA.

Mahle was called up to the Reds in 2017, four years after being drafted in the seventh round by the organization. In the minors that season he was 10-7 with a 2.06 ERA and impressed in his first four starts with the Reds, putting together a 1-2 record with a 2.70 ERA.

Mahle couldn’t find the same success the next two seasons in the majors as he did when he was first called up. In 2018, Mahle began the season in Cincinnati’s opening rotation but was optioned back to Triple-A in August. He went 7-9 with a 4.98 ERA that season.

His 2019 was even worse. Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA in 25 games. Mahle threw three pitches then, including a curveball that was thrown over 20% of the time. That was the highest rate of his career.

In 2020, Mahle changed his pitch mix. He dropped his curveball and brought back a slider. Now Mahle was throwing his slider 32% of the time and his one-year curveball experiment was eliminated. In the shortened season Mahle had a 3.59 ERA in nine starts and strict out 60 batters across 47.2 innings pitched. It was a budding of good signs to come.

Mahle broke out last season at age 26. He struck out 210 batters across 180 innings and tied for the lead of all major leaguers with 33 games started. His pitch mix remained the same as 2020 and the results across a full season turned him into a more than reliable starter in the Reds rotation.

The Reds have made it known that they have no intention to compete any time soon by letting Wade Miley go at the end of the season despite his 3.37 ERA. Mahle is the youngest of the three Reds arms expected to be in trade discussions when the season resumes.

Package

Mahle should be entering into the best years of his career with limited miles on his arm. He has a minimal injury history and has shown he is reliable to start every five days.

Mahle is just figuring out what works for him. His price should be decently high if the Reds choose to move him, especially if they don’t feel like the market is strong enough for either Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray.

If the Mets were to make a deal, I’d expect them to depart with at least one of Matt Allan or J.T. Ginn.

The Toronto Blue Jays traded the No. 16 and No. 68 prospect in baseball for Jose Berrios at the trade deadline. Berrios is 27 and a two-time All-Star but his numbers last season weren’t much better than Mahle. Without a track record like Berrios, the Mets should escape a deal without giving up one of their top three in Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio.

The Mets will dangle Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, and Jeff McNeil in talks. Smith is the most attractive to me as a Joey Votto replacement in a season or two.

My Thoughts

I would be more than comfortable moving one of the top arms in the Mets system for Mahle. Once he or any of the Reds pitchers get to a team that isn’t starting Eugenio Suarez at shortstop they should be entered as a dark-horse Cy Young candidate.

Mahle put up a five-win season last year if you don’t think he could help the Mets rotation and solidify the number three spot in the rotation I cannot help you. He is two years younger than other trade targets like Sean Manaea and five years younger than Chris Bassitt. Mahle makes chump change in 2022 and still has an extra year of team control. He’s someone you can build a rotation around for the future with Jacob deGrom.