Pablo Lopez

Position: Starting Pitcher
Bats/Throws: L/R
Age: 26 (March 7, 1996)
2022 Pitching
Traditional: 32 GS, 180.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 10-10 W/L, 174 K, 53 BB
Advanced: 108 ERA+, 23.6 K%, 7.2 BB%, 3.75 xERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 2.8 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR

Rundown

Pablo Lopez is a 26-year-old pitcher for the Miami Marlins. He made his MLB debut in 2018 and has enjoyed success, pitching to an ERA under 4 the last three seasons.

Lopez has battled through injuries since the 2021 season where he made 20 starts. He made 32 starts throughout 2022 but it was clear something wasn’t perfect with the righty. Prior to a shoulder injury in 2021, Lopez was looking like another young pitching star on the rise for the Marlins organization. He had a 3.07 ERA in 102.2 innings with 115 strikeouts but wouldn’t appear in the second half He and Sandy Alcantara seemed to be the 1-2 for the future of Miami.

Lopez didn’t enjoy the same success in 2022 but he was durable, pitching 180.0 innings. Although maybe fatigue set in on Lopez. He had a 2.30 ERA over his first 12 starts of the season, followed by a 5.51 ERA over his next 12.

Lopez’s name was floated around the trade deadline this season. With two years of arbitration remaining on his contract and ace potential the Marlins considered moving him for pieces when they were ready to compete. But Lopez remained in Miami.

Is Lopez part of a future contender in Florida or do they think they can develop another of their even younger prospects into someone of equal value? That’s the big question for GM Kim Ng this offseason.

Package

The most-substantial package for Lopez was in a potential deal to the Yankees. The Marlins asked the Yankees for shortstop prospect Oswald Peraza and second baseman Gleyber Torres in exchange for Lopez and shortstop Miguel Rojas. Torres is a two-time All-Star and just 25 years old while Peraza ranked as the Yankees No. 3 prospect and No. 50 prospect in the MLB Top 100.

The Yankees thought the price was too steep.

It’s interesting the Marlins were searching for young middle infielders, especially with Jazz Chisholm Jr. exploding onto the scene but his name was also floated around in trades at the deadline.

The Mets best middle infield prospects are Ronny Mauricio and Jett Williams. Williams was a Mets first-round pick in 2022, while Mauricio’s stock seems to fall with every day. The Marlins also seemed to place an emphasis on more-MLB ready prospects/players and neither fit the bill.

The Mets also don’t have a rising player on their major league team they’d be willing to part with. McNeil is too old/too good and Alonso is too valuable to the organization. The Marlins don’t want vets and that’s where these teams reach an impasse.

If I were the Mets, I’d offer up one of their plethora of right-handed pitching prospects that aren’t named Joel Diaz. Blade Tidwell, Calvin Ziegler, Mat Allan, and Mike Vasil could all be moved for a team needing a necessary rotation piece to win a World Series.

What makes me more confident in moving those pieces is the Mets inability to show true starting pitching development over the past six seasons. David Peterson and Tylor Megill have been nice surprises but there’s been minimal impact from within the starting pitching ranks otherwise.

Package: Pablo Lopez for Mike Vasil and Bryce Montes de Oca.

My Thoughts

Lopez is not a must-have for the Mets. His profile is intriguing but I’d want to see a successful third pitch from him in order to maximize his potential. The Mets have seen Lopez’s struggles firsthand, seeming to crush him every time they play one another but he still has that ace potential.

If the Mets cannot retain Chris Bassitt, the need for Lopez becomes much greater. I’d still take Bassitt over him.

It’s also a question if the Mets can match the Marlins wants. They have the top prospects to do it but none of them are worth Lopez. In this instance, I’d easily hold on to them.

Ultimately, Lopez makes the most sense for this team as a all-in move at the deadline and not as an offseason acquisition.