MMO Trade Profile: Matt Moore, LHP

Position: LHP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 6/18/1989 (33)

Traditional Stats: 33 G, 4-2, 1.61 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 50 K, 44.2 IP
Advanced Stats:  1.0 fWAR, 2.57 FIP,  2.51 xERA, 13.0 BB%, 27.2 K%

Rundown

Yes, that same Matt Moore that pitched to a 6.29 ERA, 4.89 xERA, and 5.76 FIP last season with Philadelphia. The former All-Star, who is now 33 years old, has completely revitalized his career for the time being. Moore threw five scoreless Triple-A innings this season before being called back up to the majors. He has shined with the Texas Rangers ever since.

In his bullpen role, the left-handed relief pitcher has pitched to career bests so far this season. Yes, a smaller sample size in the context of his career overall, but 44 2/3 innings of terrific work is nothing to bat an eye at. He has put up starling numbers across the board: 1.61 ERA, 2.51 xERA, and 2.57 FIP. He is also striking out a career-high 27.2% of hitters (of the eighth seasons he has pitched at least 11 innings). Moore has also yet to allow a home run this season.

A deeper dive into the analytics show just how effective Moore has been. As the above points out, Moore is in an elite tier in terms of percentile rankings among his peers. The most noticeable being how often he is inducing swing-and-misses as well as chases from the hitters he is facing. These aspects are generating one of the highest strikeout rates of Moore’s career.

He is also blending the use of his four-seam fastball (86th percentile in spin rate) and curveball extremely well. He is throwing each pitch 43% of the time and each are generating xBA below .200. Moore also works in a changeup that has been borderline un-hittable as evident by the pitch’s BA of .100 and xBA of .114. These filthy pitches, in return, are resulting in hitters being unable to barrel up the ball (97th percentile) and create hard contact (95th percentile hard hit rate).

All this soft contact, and inability to make any contact at all, has resulted in terrific numbers. Opponents are only hitting .191 against Moore this season. The xBA figure of .178 indicates this number is legit and not a beneficiary of any good luck. In total, opposing hitters are slugging a meager .191/.299/.236 against Moore which is good for an OPS of .535. The league average OPS this year is .708.

As for his splits, over his career as a whole they have been revered. Right-handed hitters have a career BA of .250 against Moore, while left-handed hitters .270. This year has been more of the same evident by the .170 BA against righties and .235 against lefties. Regardless, this season Moore is getting basically everyone out.

There are some concerns with Moore. First off, he has had some issues with walks at points this season. His 13% walk rate this year is the highest of his career. The walk rate also ranks in the league’s sixth percentile, which further demonstrates the struggles with command at points.

Lastly, as mentioned above, 44 1/3 innings is a decent sample size, though Moore is less than a year removed from a disastrous 2021 season. He also has not posted an ERA below 4.00 in a season since 2014. Regression, despite the numbers not pointing to any this year specifically, is always a risk with a player who turns around a career like this so quickly.

Potential Package

Moore signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Rangers in the offseason. He is an unrestricted free agent at year’s end. So, he is a pure rental. Despite the terrific numbers and the fact he is one of the better left-handed reliever options on the market, his price should not be high at all.

Projecting trades is always a difficult task. A best guess at what it would take to pry the former Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (Japan League) from the Rangers is a mid-to-high C-level prospect. As mentioned, given his pending free agent status, he should not cost much of anything. He’ll likely get traded to the team that offers the best prospect in the Rangers’ eyes.

Final Thoughts

It is no secret the Mets need a left-handed addition to their bullpen. Chasen Shreve was ultimately released, and Joely Rodríguez‘s (5.93 ERA/4.01 xERA/3.97 FIP) season certainly has not gone as expected. Ultimately, to address this need, the Mets’ first choice (trade profile here) should be Andrew Chafin (2.31 ERA/2.32 xERA/3.23 FIP). Though, if Billy Eppler and the team either get outbid, or do not want to spend the most likely more expensive price, Moore would be a terrific consolation prize.

Despite his splits being reversed, Moore has shown the capabilities to get both right-handed and left-handed hitters out. He has done terrific work this year thus far and the underlying analytics back up the surface statistics. Heck, he has yet to give up a long ball this season. Furthermore, Moore would also come as a very cheap option that could provide tremendous value to a Mets’ bullpen that certainly needs it.

Note, the above percentile statistics are via Baseball Savant.